The cnn president ial debate is tonight, 12 hours to go. Ground rules, here they are. Two commercial breaks. No contact between candidate and and staff. Biden on the right, trump on the left. Mics muted outside speaking time, that is, no notes, no props, no crowd. There you have it. Thats what youre going to be seeing. A new poll shows more than half of americans think this faceoff is extremely or very important. More than half. 16 may change their vote depending on what they see tonight. Over 100 million may tune in. May i offer my opinion in its trumps to lose. Lets get to the markets which could be affected by whats said tonight. The analysts were disappointed that micron didnt come out with quite the blockbuster report they wanted. The stocks down sharply, looking at a 4. 5 loss. That is affecting the rest of the tech sector. Look at the market overall for a second. The dow industrials, this is premarket, showing some red ink, down 74. The nasdaq down just so 10 points. Interest rates keep edging higher. Look at the 10year now at 4. 30. And the 2year is at 4. 75 or thereabouts, 4. 73 right now. Bitcoin, not much change, 61,200. Oil, 81 a barrel, 81. 61. Regular gas up one cent reaching 3. 50 per gone. Thats nationwide. Diesel, no change, 3. 81. All right, politics. Yes, its debate day. Some very interesting polls. The Washington Post says voters or in six swing states believe trump is best handling the threats to democracy. Thats okay, 33 to okay. Thats a different poll. Thats a blow to biden. Hes basing much of his campaign on saying trump is a threat to to democracy. All right, heres another blow. Political analyst nate silver gives trump a 66 chance of winning the election. He says it is no longer a tossup. On the show today, the migrant terror threat, the tata week standisis connection. Trumps Vice President ial pick, hes toying with us. You will hear from senator tim scott and his fiance, mindy knoss. It is thursday, june 27th, 2024, Varney Company is about to begin. Yall ready for this . Stuart get ready for this. Okay, now you know what were talking about today. The president ial debate. Tonight trump and biden faceoff, its the First Time Since 2020. All right, Lawrence Jones is at ruth anns restaurant in columbus, georgia. Lawrence, ive been watching you all morning, and im watching what the people are saying. Those people there in that restaurant, they really like tim scott for Vice President , dont they . The people of georgia, first, great people, theyre just fired up. They do like tim scott. You know, its interesting because weve been doing this series. Yesterday with i did j. D. Vance, ainsley did tim scott. Brian is set to go with with burgum if the former president doesnt announce his pick and then, of course, steve was supposed to be marco rubio, but he declined our request. But when i asked the folks in georgia about who they wanted to be Vice President , a lot of applause for tim scott. Stuart whats the top issue amongst those people in that restaurant . Is it immigration or inflation . You know, yeah well, its interesting because when you talk to some of the people here, they say the economy. The second issue is definitely immigration. There are so many people in georgia that are ticked off about the border. I mean, when you see innocent young americans, especially in my home state of texas where a 12yearold was raped brutally and then murdered by two guys, and then one of them said, oh, i told the other guy to stop, okay . So were dealing with people that are criminal, were criminals in their own country. Remember, people said with donald trump they said he was make it up when he said venezuela was emptying their prisons. We know that to be true now, because theyre coming here to commit crimes. Stuart got it. Lawrence, good man, see you again later. [laughter] thanks very much. President biden has repeatedly called donald trump a threat to democracy. Watch this. The defeated former president has made no secret of his attack on our democracy. He said he wants to be a dick today for to have on day one. What, in your view, constitutes the primary threat to freedom and democracy at home . Donald trump. Donald trump uses phrases like hes going to be a dictator on day one. Donald trump and the maga republicans. And that is a threat to this country. Hes willing to sacrifice our democracy. Stuart however, a new poll finds voters in key swing states actually trust the trump more than biden to handle threats to democracy. Mary katharine ham joins me now. Is there really a threat to americas democracy . And if there is, is it from trump or biden . If. Well, look, this is the problem for them, that many people view this many different ways, right . When youre talking about the left are, they view the threats as trump and his unor the docks way of governor unorthodox way of governing. When you talk about rightleaning, you look at the way joe biden is saying explicitly look how ive ignored the courts by forgiving everybodys college debt or look at the ways im proud weve strongarmed the judicial system and gone after our opponent, and that seems like a threat to democracy to us, right . But i think the larger issue is threat to democracy is a rather abstract idea, and people are dealing with inflation, they are dealing with economy concerns, they are dealing with crime in their cities to some extent that is increasing in various places. They look at joe biden and they go, or hey, you promised us a steady hand on the wheel. Independent voters broke his way for that reason. Okay, were going to go out of the chaos and into this. And then they look around at the economy, at his policies, they look around at riots in Lafayette Park right across9 from the white house on behalf of hamas, and they go, uh, is this what i ordered . I do not think it is. So i think trumps challenge tonight is to appear to be the steadier hand on the wheel. I know hes, hes bombastic, he can be unpredictable, but i think a temp rate performance would do him well tonight because if he needs to look like the option that people can turn to when theyve decided that biden is not giving them the steady hand on the wheel. In fact if, hes giving them chaos with. [laughter] stuart got it. Mary katherine, election guru nate silver just released his highly anticipated forecasting model for the election. Not the debate, the election. He says trump has a 66 chance of winning. Its no longer a tossup, says nate silver. Do you think the election might be decided tonight, march key rath Mary Katherine in. I think its a very big deal. The news cycle moves so fast, a week from now we might not think its a big deal. But the risk for a catastrophic glitch for a candidate like biden is pretty high, higher than weve seen for most candidates in the past, and if Something Like that happened, it could make a huge difference, and democrats would get really panicked about the fact that hes on top of the ticket. The New York Times sienna poll has 68 of voters thinking hes too old. The flip side, if he does well for 30 minutes, everybody will be like, oh, look at this success. I think thats a challenge for trump as well. The expectations are, rightly, quite low for joe biden. Stuart set the bar low, and if he jumps over it, hes in. At least its a success, put it like that. Mary katharine ham, see you again soon. Tonight, the fox news democratic 2024 special, the cnn president ial debate simulcast on fox. Please watch on fox. If. All right, lets turn to the markets and and check futures. This is debate day, the morning of. Down 90 on the dow, down about 11 on the nasdaq. Adam johnson with with me this morning. Sir. Stuart are stocks overextended . Theyre getting there. And im saying that as someone who is fully invested, so im keenly aware. I tell you why i say this, the s p 500 is trading at 21 times earnings. For context, typically 1720 is kind of where you want to see a bull market, so 21 its pushing up. And yet if you look back at the tops from 2008 back in 2000, the s p went up to 2830 times. That thats bubble territory. Were nowhere near there, again, were at 21. But do i think were overextended . Thats why i say were getting there. Were on the upper edge of where you like to see the range. Stuart what do you make of the betting odds which i do follow occasionally which show trump a 51 to biden 35, favoring trump for the election . Yeah. Very different from the polls, right . Stuart yeah, theyre close. I think that reflects the electoral college, and i say that because if you consider the fact that mr. Trump is winning in all seven of the battleground states, then all those electoral votes go to him. And, actually, if you go to the real clear politics map, what you would find is mr. Trump, were the election held today, would be at 323 and mr. Biden would be at about 220. You need 2700 to win. That would be a landslide for many trump. And yet the popular vote tells a different story. Stuart what about the misery index . I remember that from 40 years ago. Yeah, right. So the misery index basically adds the inflation rate, right now 3. 3, with the unemployment rate, right now 4. So 3. 3 plus 4, 7. 3. That is exactly the Tipping Point historically since world war ii when the misery index has been 73 or higher, the in can 7. 3 or higher, the incumbent loses. Stuart really . Yes. Just like Everything Else in this election, its right at knifes edge. Stuart youre with me for the hour. Okay. Stuart an urgent new warning if you use the selfcheckout line at the supermarket, thieves have a new scam that goes completely unnoseed. Unnoticed. A judge is blaming donald trump, a judge blaming trump for the killing of a 12yearold girl in texas. Youve got to watch this. Roll it. It hurts even more that theyre being used as pawns in this fight over immigration that doesnt even exist because biden and mcconnell agree its just that trump wont let em move it forward. Stuart what . That is a judge on the bench being highly political. Congressman Tony Gonzalez is going to respond to it. The Biden Campaign wrapping up attacks on trump. Theyre calling him a convicted felon. Is that going to work for biden tonight . Andrew cherkasky takes it on after this. [thunder rumbles] the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . 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Fisher Investments yes. As a fiduciary, we always put your interests first. Because we do better when you do better. At Fisher Investments, were clearly different. So, what are you thinking . Im thinking. speaking to self about our honeymoon. What about africa . Safari . Hot air balloon ride . Swim with elephants . Wait, can we afford a safari . Great question. Like everything, it takes a little planning. Or, put the money towards a downpayment. On a ranch. In montana. With horses lets take a look at those scenarios. J. P. Morgan Wealth Management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. When youre planning for it all. The answer is j. P. Morgan Wealth Management. Stuart its the fist time in four years that donald trump and President Biden will face off. Jacqui heinrich outside the white house for us. Just take us through the day, will you . Reporter sure is. Well, stuart, according to a new quinnipiac poll or, 73 of voter, a majority, say theyre going to be watching this debate tonight, and 16 city theyre open to changing say theyre open to changing their choice for president based on how it goes. Former President Trump say he got good reviews last cycle when he had a more temper rate rapport, is so President Biden has been trying to find ways to get him ang i and throw it out. The dnc has put up billboards welcoming trump back to the peach state as a convicted front. The Biden Campaigns been trying to figure out what gets under his skin, drafting jabs for biden related the january 6th and bidens 2020 excuse me, trumps 2020 election laws. But bidens also is trying to appear as the adult in the room. Is so tonight he might also need to mind his own temper. Radical left you shut up, man . [inaudible conversations] no, no, we have ended the segment, were going to move on to the second segment. That was really a productive segment, wasnt it . [laughter] keep yapping, man. Reporter trump has has shunned formal a debate preps, opting for policy talks and the campaign trail. He called into a black business leads round table and predicted the moderators tonight will help his opponent. Yeah, probably, but it would be great news cnn has had a lot of ratings problems. In terms of its credibility. If. Reporter Trumps Campaign said they expect biden to benefit from his weeklong study session and 50 years in politic, but they also suggested he might get some help from performanceenhancing drugs, an accusation team bind sees as a vulnerable. They like to complain about debates, sometimes they skip out. The president will be there tonight, we still assume donald trump will be there as well. The fact of the matter is they play these games because they know on the issues that matter most to the American People, donald trump is a loser, right . Reporter biden heads to atlanta around noon today, and when we see him, itll be the First Time Since the 20th, stuart. Stuart some time has passed, i think. Thank you very much, indeed. Andrew cherkasky is with us, joining us now, a former federal prosecutor. Judge merchan has partially lifted the gag order against trump in the criminal trial. Should trump talk about the trial tonight now that hes free to . Well, lifting that gag order is a day late and a dollar short. The gag order, interestingly, does not prevent or does not allow donald trump to talk about the judges daughter still, and thats one of the most troubling issues in this entire trial stuart really . He wait a minute, he cant talk about that . He cannot. Paragraphs do stuart thats outrageous. Were lifted which is the jurors and the witnesses, but the court staff and the prosecutors, that part of the gag order still not lifted. So so one of the biggest problems in this trail was the fairness of judge merchan and the connection he has to a daughter whos raising millions and millions of dollars for the Democratic Party and profiting off of this trial. He still cant talk about that. Stuart isnt that prohibited umped the statutes of how they govern trials in american courts . I think its a blatant violation of the First Amendment. Im so disappointed with the new york courts. Theres so much i could talk about with that, but the idea of the First Amendment being stripped from the frontrunning president , for the upcoming campaign, its outrageous. Stuart got it. Now, President Bidens team, theyve been referring to trump as a convicted felon. Frequently, a convicted felon, hammering him on that. Thats an aggressive attack. Do you think it works tonight . Well, you can call him a convicted felon, but youre going to have to define what he did that was wrong because, remember, donald trump paid his lawyer, put it in his books as a legal expense. Ive talked to so many business folks, they cant tell me what they would have booked that expense as otherwise. So if bidens going to attack on that, hes gown to have to be ready for trump to come back on him for all of the things which hes done for which hes an unconvicted felon, things like the untimely and reckless withdrawal from afghanistan, things like his own classified document mishandling. Hes going to have to answer potentially for his sons conduct that he has endorsed over all this time. Hes got a lot to answer for if hes to going to attack donald trump on criminality. Stuart its a mustsee tv event, isnt it . [laughter] theres no way around it. I might even stay up late to watch this thing. Check futures real fast. I see some red ink for the dow. Youre down about 800 sorry, 108 nasdaq down, red red ink. The Federal Reserve just released the results of its annual stress test for banks. How did they do, lauren . Lauren all 31, cleared. They can withstand a severe recession which assumes 10 unemployment and housing prices that a fall around 40 . They were able in those circumstances to maintain enough capital. One caveat, the results were fine, a little bit worse than last year because the banks are holding more credit card loans and debt. Stuart adam johnson, whats your feelings . They passed the stress test. So what . Of course they passed the stress test because they have twice as much capital set aside. So, yes, thats wonderful. Thats the lesson and the legacy of 2008, they passed the stress test, Everybody Knows it. Theyre well capitalized so onwards. Stuart got it. Well take it. Yeah. Stuart thanks very much, adam. All right. Lets check futures quickly. 114 down for the dow. The opening bell is ne