we have seen since 1943 as a last time we had this much government spending. he is also attacking supply at the same time. it is the rest recipe for runaway inflation. i would not be surprised if we had double inflation. paul: that is an outlier prediction. saying, okay, 5% may be a while, but it will go back down. the fed even says that its target, over 2% here in the next months and years. you are saying it could really spiral up. is your explanation for this that this is merely pandemic related supply chain issues or is it policy mistakes both in monetary at the fed and you mention the demand-side stimulus for spending. is this a policy error? >> there are three policy errors. it is kind of like a perfect storm. the fed is throwing all this cash into the economy. you and i've been talking about