Look at the crowd outside of the fox news headquarters. Remember that time we said we thought we would be able to make a call by 11 00, and early exit polls looked like the call would probably go to Hillary Clinton . Not so much. We are watching right now states including michigan which has been too close to call, pennsylvania which has been too close to call, New Hampshire, minnesota, maine, arizona. None has come in, and we started the evening saying trump needed to pull an inside straight. Shoe is on a different foot now, mixing metaphors, but she needs a straight flush. It is going to be hard is my point. And a new pair of shoes which Everyone Needs no matter what. Going to toss it to brett at the data deck upstairs. Yes. We are looking at some cards for Hillary Clinton that do not look like theyre lining up. I think i told you earlier it would be 1 00 in the morning i would see you. Thats true. But i think we were supposed to be at the bar. Thats right. There are casinos in michigan. Show us some michigan. Here is what ive been watching the last 30 minutes. 30 minutes ago trumps margin was about 34,000 in michigan, and then it bumped up to 42,000. And then these are remaining counts . Correct, yeah. Northern michigan. Then it bumped up to 59,000. My point is every time you watch it, maybe it is 5,000, bret, maybe it is 10 or 2,000. Right now it is 50 . Correct, yeah, 59. Did it change again . No, 51. Oh, boy. I gave up math when i got an iphone. There you go. 59. Let me take you to pennsylvania here. This is what happened over the last 30 minutes. At 12 30 east coast time he was up 26,000 votes. 15 minutes later he was up 35,000 votes in pennsylvania. Right now based on that board it is 52. It had been 59. It came down about 5,000. You are at 52,000 vote margin in the state of pennsylvania. So either one of those states obviously puts him over the top of 270 electoral votes to win. Thats right. She has to find the votes there in michigan or pennsylvania, otherwise because minnesota doesnt do it alone. Yeah. Arizona is still out here, but it is a republican leaning state. Let me show you that, too, by the way in arizona because at the moment hes got about a four point lead right now. You go back four years ago and see what the margin was between romney and obama, it was greater. She has closed the gap as a democrat, but again he has the advantage. We go back to the whatif column again. Take michigan out of the picture. Take pennsylvania out. If hes at 254 right now confirmed, as adds puts him at 265. New hampshire is too close to call. Have you seen what is going on in that state . I mean it is just so razor tight. Ill take you there now. We can see the margin here. I mean this has gone. 2 in his favor,. 2 in her favor. All right. Let me do one thing on this whatif. What if, lets go back here, and what if okay. What if she pulls out the miraculous win in michigan . And pennsylvania. And pennsylvania. She is at 251. Now, minnesota looks like it is heading her way, 261. All right. You have to give arizona, because likely. Likely to donald trump. Then you have alaska, that goes republican. That just closed a minute ago. Lets just say it goes republican, 268. Then you have the president of the United States hanging on New Hampshire, which, by the way, is tight, right . Very tight. It could go either way. Right here. Lets see where it is. Right now you have clinton up in New Hampshire. Yeah. No, thats maine. Oh. That would be why, thats why. See, thats why bill does it and i dont do it. Take two. There we go. Okay. And you have, again, clinton up in New Hampshire. By about 1,000 votes. Click back to 2012 on the bottom right there. Im going to give you back control. My point is that it is conceivable that the entire presidency of the United States comes down to New Hampshire, the first in the nation primaries. I want to point this out because it is 650,000 votes in four years ago, in 2016 we are well under that mark right now. You have 520,000 votes right now. You are going to get more votes in. And whether or not well, she just jumped up. 7 . Thats what were debating right now, trying to figure this out. 7 of the entire vote for the state, but it is Pretty Simple this way, brett. You win michigan, youre at the number. Thats it. Pretty easy this way. You win pennsylvania, youre at the number. Right now in both states he has the lead. Well see how long this lasts. But in our studio tonight is mr. Butterfly ballot. Okay. His name is john bolton, and he will tell you that all of these states have a law when you go into a mandatory recount, were going to dive into that in a minute and try to figure it out for you. We are making a call now. The fox news decision desk is calling the state of maine for Hillary Clinton, but this is three out of the four available electoral votes there. We have not called the second Congressional District in maine. Maine is one of two states, along with nebraska, that splits up its electoral votes. So now you have maine, plus three for Hillary Clinton, with one still remaining out there. Yeah. To do the math on that, at the moment with that factored in, if she were to take New Hampshire, run the table in pennsylvania, michigan, minnesota, she is at 268. She has to win arizona oraa last kau . Arizona oraa last k alaska a to this at the moment. Thats a big challenge, and you know theyre breathing heavy in brooklyn at the moment. Were going to send you back to you, megyn. Thank you. Why cant we call any of these states . Why is it, hello, michigan, hello, minnesota . Hello, arizona. Hello, pennsylvania. Rather than back there doing his work. Stirewalt is usually on the decision desk. You can see hes sweating, like, get me back there, i dont like knowing. I do like knowing more than not knowing, but i know this, pennsylvania is hard to call. Now we were just talking about, there are places in pennsylvania she has obviously under performed, but theres still a path for her, or at least there was as of about three minutes ago, a path for her in pennsylvania to get this done. As far as, you know, we want to be careful about calls even when they look obvious, because Something Like arizona, right . You look at that and you say, gosh, that should be enough, but we would rather be when it is this close, we would rather be right than be early. Just looking at so up here on the wall you have all of the states we havent called, right . I dont know if it is all of them but a lot of them, the big ones. Look at that, obviously michigan is the best one because if he got 16, thats it, he wins the presidency. If we project michigan for donald trump he wins the presidency, pennsylvania same deal. All of the others need a little bit of extra. Minnesota is 10, but you can see if you can add, you know, 10 gets him to 264 and he needs six. He can cobble together a couple more. As adds, we havent yet called. Thats 11. If he could win arizona and minnesota, ad minnesota arizona and one of the others if he won arizona and New Hampshire it would get him to 269. That would mean worst he could do was a tie. And if he got maines second Congressional District, which is out. 269 you said 259. No, 269 would mean a tie and hes president. So arizona an New Hampshire would do it. Good. Listen, we like to reminisce here. We love to go back down old memory lane. So im actually going to take a walk to the decision desk and find out what is the deal with michigan, whats the deal with minnesota. It was fun the last time. You know, the stakes are different this time. We havent called the election. Were actually just finding out why we havent called the election, why we havent called a couple of key states. Shorter walk thanks to the new studio. Here are all of our guys. Hi, guys. Hello. Art in michigan, how are you doing . Terrific, megyn. How are you . We meet again. What is the deal . First of all talk about michigan, what is the deal . Why cant you cant it . We are waiting on votes from detroit and other places. Even though it clearly trump has the lead, were not prepared to call it yet. Because detroit is considered heavily democrat . Democratic, yes. What do you need to see, what the turnout there was or what . Need to see the turnout and most important we need to understand what the absentee vote, because it tends to be counted in bizarre ways, county by county. Were waiting to see what the vote is like to make a call in michigan. Any idea what time in the morning . Seriously, do they tell you what the timing is . What they tell us is soon. Soon could mean anything. Thats not helpful. Forget michigan. Move to minnesota. 10 electoral votes there. That could get him closer. What is the deal there . We are waiting for a lot of vote in the twin cities area which tends to be democratic. Hillary seems to have a slight lead in minnesota, but it is a tenuous lead. When we look at the models looks like a close night there. Minnesota was not supposed to be it wasnt considered a tossup really. Not at all. Arizona, why havent we called that . Arizona has begun to count vote in a slightly different way. A all right of votes dont get counted on election day. It is not clear we will be able to make a call in as adds tonight, but were going to try. Pennsylvania, thats the mother load. If trump gets that hes got it. Thats right. Pennsylvania looks like it will be a close night in pennsylvania. I wouldnt be surprised if were not able to call pennsylvania tonight. If were not able to call it at all . Very possible, yes. How about maines second Congressional District . Man, theyve gotten so much air time this election. Thats exactly right. This is district in out state maine, the northern part of maine. Right now trump has the lead in the raw vote, but i think only 50 of the vote is counted there. So we dont have a model for maine cd 2, but looks like trump may get that one electoral vote, but were not ready to call it. The most interesting one you are missing is alaska. Really . Precisely. They have three electoral votes. Historically theyve always gone republican. We are looking at conflicting data from alaska, and it is another state that tends to count votes extremely slowly. It is another state we could be hanging on for. How about New Hampshire and its four electoral votes . Joe trippy is obsessed with New Hampshire. As he should be. It is a state we could easily not be calling tonight. Come on. Im sorry. Should we dock their pay . Let me ask you this, you guys sit back here, crunch the numbers, talk, compare notes. What explains ka we hawhat we h tonight . Do you look at the exit data or is that dana blanton . Can you help us understand what people misread. Thats a good question. People will be pouring over the data and possibly years to figure out what happened. I think in the last, the final polling we saw clinton had roughly a four point lead in most of the polls. She was at about 48 , 49 . The question was what happened to all of the folks who what i call the movables, folks who said they were for johnson, stein or purely were undecided, and they ranged from 8 to 12 depending on the poll you were looking at. I think what happened was a lot of those people, they said they werent for Hillary Clinton, and they werent, and in the end they decided to go for trump. Thats my hypothesis of what the polling it was a misreading of the polling rather than a mistake of the polls. Im not going to hold you to this because i know youre crunching numbers in counties and raw vote and things like that, but do you have a feeling the late deciders, do you have a feeling it was a late breaking vote for trump or whether it was baked in, these people you are talking about, you know . Was it the last few days or when was it . What we saw in the exit poll is there were some late decided Movement Towards trump, but i think what it is is evidence they were basically sort of decided but didnt want to say. And then in the end they went for trump. So is what you are saying that the trump voter really was out there . I guess so, yep. It doesnt seem possible you can be a shy trump voter, right . What we know of trump voters is theyre not shy, they are not shy. Thats the big difference between the general election and what we were seeing all year in the primaries. All year in the primaries the trump number from the polling was the exact number he got in the primary. All of the undecided went away from trump. This time were seeing a lot of the undecided wound up being a trump vote. Last question. What of the states still out there one more thing. Yeah, go. The other thing to note is right now clinton is ahead in popular vote. That was something a lot of analysts understood, that in fact a democratic lead of 3 or 4 translated into an Electoral College photo finish, which is what we are seeing right now. Basically the democrats run up the score in states like california, new york, illinois, where and roughly 3 of the vote is wasted by democrats in those states. Thats just the way Continental Congress decided it. It is wasted in those states, and so even though you have might have a 3 lead in popular vote it could translate into an Electoral College photo finish. My last question, does she have a chance left . Im not going to answer that question. I had to try. Number two is what is the state you guys think you are most likely to call next . I realize you dont know, which one are we most likely to get next . Were looking at a number of states we possibly could call very does it begin with an m . You are a very good interviewer. Youre not going to tell me . No, not yet. Thank you. Thank you all you guys. You are Unsung Heroes at fox news, all of the work you do. You too, a pleasure to work with these guys. Back to the decision desk, well away from decision desk and back to the anchor desk. Karl rove stayed seated, didnt challenge anybody. Theres no bad blood between karl and arnie. Thats because we didnt call somebody with 911 votes separating the two candidates. Were they right or werent they . Lets not relive it. It is a painful moment. Okay. We do love them, it is wonderful to work with them, but we would like to make some calls. I think it begins with an m. He wouldnt say some, but you could see it in his eyes. It is possible. Karl cameron is live at trump headquarters with reaction there as we are waiting on m states to come in. Reporter hi, brett. Impatient is probably the operative word of the night. Theres not been a Single Person who has left the Trump Victory night headquarters, is what they think it now is. The trump family remains at trump tower, impatient to come over here. Theyre particularly interested in when pennsylvania might get called because after Hillary Clinton leading the polls, donald trump has moved into a slight lead in the actual vote count, but theres still more of the vote out to be counted. So donald trump and his campaign now have to start thinking about putting together a Transition Team. A couple of weeks ago when the polls werent looking all that favorable in some of the battleground states, donald trump instructed his transition chairman Chris Christie, the governor of new jersey, to slow down on transition work and pony up some of the people to help him actually win the race. He is on the precipice of doing exactly that, which means that the transition effort has probably fallen behind a little bit. Now he has to deal with the acceptance speech and putting the transition on over drive in order to start forming a government, assuming that m state or maybe the p state of pennsylvania, or perhaps arizona and some combination of others including alaska, will put him over the top. They wouldmuch for our decision desk to make their decision so they can come down here and make their speeches. You know, on tv jargon you have what is called mixed plus because we can hear the broadcast in the hall there. So you did an excellent job, carl, talking through the reverberation. Got to keep it interesting, you know. He is too good. You got to throw a few hardballs at him to see if he can still do it, and, indeed, he can. Lets see what we can do to jan griffin. She is at Clinton Campaign headquarters. Hey, jen. Reporter hey, megyn. It is quite a different scene over here. There are Campaign Staff that weve seen in tears. The hall has emptied out quite a bit behind me. We just saw a very surreal scene where cher walked in, turned around and looked at the board and walked back out. We just saw donna shilayla walking out, current head of the clinton foundation. We saw the head of clintons Transition Team, he just walked through the crowd. He had a somber look on his face, a very different mood over here at clinton headquarters, megyn. Any sign of huma or reporter no, we have not seen huma, we have not seen Hillary Clinton herself, but certainly the lower level staff who weve been traveling with on planes for the last few months, they are despondent i would say. Uhhuh. You know, it is always sad on these nights to see the side thats in this case likely to lose, and soon well know one side has lost, because they put so much effort into it. You can feel their pain and you can feel, you know, how badly they want it to happen. When you look at this result tonight, chris wallace, you tell me whether people are going to consider that Anthony Weiner in a way helped bring down Hillary Clinton tonight . Sure. Certainly didnt help. Theyre going to look around at a lot of things, and clearly the clinton camp isnt going to blame Hillary Clinton, except for neera tandem who seems to be the truth teller in the group. She emerged as mvp of wi