Its a big day. Lets get to it. We have had a lot of big days in this campaign, iowa was big, new hampshire, super tuesday big, but none much bigger than today because today we could begin to understand how the future may play out. On the republican side, its either donald trump or most likely somebody else who will be picked at the convention in cleveland or ted cruz. One of those. If trump can have a really, really big day in wisconsin today as he has predicted he can get the delegates he need to own this thing. Hell have the story line, the narrative, the sort of i cant be stopped swagger that can propel him to the nomination and beat back the nottrump crowd. If not, like if he loses big his whole case could be hard to make Going Forward. Im a winner, look at me, its what i do, look at the polls. Its hard to make that case if the polls are right and you dont win. Then im a winner, look at the polls is kind of tired and wrong. So for trump and for not trump its a very big day, sort of turn around tuesday for the nottrump crowd or a triumphant tuesday for the donald trump crowd. One of those will probably happen today, probably. Ted cruz has spent the last 24 hours campaigning. Hes expecting a terrific victory. Thats what he said. That tonight will be a turning point in the gop race. He also says voters are fed up with Donald Trumps rhetoric and personal attacks although that really didnt stop ted cruz from taking a shot of his own. Donald trump recently questioned whether your governor can ride a harley. I think scott would be happy to give donald a ride, a side cart he could hold on to. Youre right, it would mess up his hair. [ laughter ] actually i dont know that it would. Important stuff no doubt. But i mentioned the polls. They showed te leading in wisconsin, maybe because of the harley. The numbers vary. Some show about even, but most show six or seven points the cruz lead. The Fox Business Network has it at ten points for cruz. As for trump himself, hes admitted last week was rough for his campaign. Not the worst, but not like awesome. His changing comments on abortion angered folks and lots of women but trump insists women have no problem supporting him. He said this morning they even look to him for protection. I have so many women that really want to have protection from the standpoint and they like me for that reason and last night on a different show and they were saying we like donald trump because we feel hes going to be the strongest for the country in terms of protection, the border, isis, in terms of other countries. And i win by such a margin. So thats protecting women but its also protecting everybody. Trumps wife melania defending her husband saying he is not sexist. As you know may by now when attack him he will punch back ten times harder, no matter who you are, a man or a woman, he treats everyone equal. His wife. So there you go. Trump says he spent so much time in wisconsin that voters will be sick of him there. At this rally last night in milwaukee it looked like maybe they are. Lots of empty seats. Room for thousands more. But it was cold and the basketball was on. So well see. Trump wont be there whatever the outcome of this big day, he will watch from new york. But before he goes home, hes campaigning and trump put out new details of one of his Biggest Campaign promises, building a giant wall along the mexican border. But now details. The Washington Post published trump is threatening to stop people from mexico who live here in the United States stop them from sending money back to mexico. A lot of people do that. They come here, get good jobs and send cash back to their families in mention who need it. Remittances theyre called. Trump is threatening to stop that unless mexico makes a onetime payment in the neighborhood of 5 to 10 billion. Mexican president said theres no way they would pay for that. Remember he didnt say bleeping. He opted for a more new york style word that one might not use. But he used that word, not bleeping wall but another word i cant say here. Finally like him or not, it seems trumps take on america losing its way is resonating with some voters. Theres a poll out showing 57 of all voters either strongly agree that america has lost its identity. For republicans that number is 80 . And the whopping 85 of people who identify as Trump Supporters say they believe america has lost its way and that same poll shows trump backers strongly favor a leader willing to do or say whatever to get things done. So a lot of people say they agree with trump on those broad concepts and a lot of people say they dont like his demeanor and some of the things he says. Tonight well find out if his march to the nomination will continue. Full speed ahead. Look at the polls. Winning, winning, winning, or if another narrative may emerge. Didnt win. Now look at the polls. Here comes new york. Maybe not trump now and some sort of process come the summer in cleveland we cant visualize that well decide on a nominee other than the one to which were accustomed. One of those. Its more likely trump or someone else. That we could learn today which makes today this turn around tuesday or triumph trump tuesday a big tuesday for trump and eventually john kasich or paul ryan or somebody else but its a big day. Today were going to learn something that may change things tomorrow Going Forward. And all of us americans because its a big day. John roberts leads the news live from milwaukee. Hello. Reporter hey, shep. Good afternoon to you. This will be a big day one way or the other here. Donald trump has tried to pull a rabbit out of his hat and save the win. Ted cruzs campaign headquarters, just west of milwaukee. A lot of people on the phone back here. Handing out chickfila because theyre trying to drum up every vote they can. Reaching across the milwaukee area and beyond. This is one of nine offices they have across the state doing exactly the same thing. Take a look at the map. Back in 2012, mitt romney did very well here in milwaukee and the madison area. Rick santorum won the bulk of whats happening across the state. Heres what ted cruz has going for him in 2016. He is doing well here in milwaukee by virtue of his partnership with wisconsin governor and also doing well in the areas that Rick Santorum won back in 2012 because crosses over the same territory. A onetwo punch he hopes is going to carry the day. Cruz is saying he could get the majority of the delegates before the convention . Reporter i lost you a bit there. Let me just try to continue on. Cruz insisted to me he could get to the 1237 delegates necessary to get the nomination before they go to the convention. That would be a very difficult hill to climb because he would have to win 82 of the remaining delegates in order to do that. But cruz insisted if he was to win wisconsin, winning kind of creates its own momentum. Heres what he told me. A victory here tomorrow will resonate across this country, will change the outcome in states to come all across this country. Reporter ted cruz really isnt looking forward to new york which is the next big contest on april the 19th. What hes looking forward to is california. Thats a few weeks down the road. California is a very big prize. 172 delegates and the numbers are very close. He hopes a win in wisconsin will change the numbers Going Forward and some of the bigger contests like pennsylvania, new jersey and california. Not giving him the numbers certainly would put him in a good position. I cant hear you now. Which is a turn of events. I cant hear anything. I can tell you though with the booth having knowledge, i can tell you that both the cruz camp and the trump camp are calling for kasich to quit because if kasich quit they both think they have a better shot at things but Going Forward its more difficult for kasich because down the road there are a lot of win or take all states which makes everything more complicated. Today is not kasichs last day but down the road there could be a case made its going to be harder. For now kasich says hes not going anywhere. Many people do much better than him. Hes just a stubborn guy. Lets let it all play out. They wont be successful and i think theyre becoming hysterical actually. Theres a little hysteria catching on there. Lets see if i could hear david. Hello david. Hi, shep, can you hear me . Not in this thing that i normally hear through, but they have turned on the big speaker so i could kind of hear you. Do you buy this turn around tuesday or trump triumph tuesday narrative, do you believe that its true that if trump actually comes out and wins this as he predicted, that he now has a way forward that makes this much easier for him and if he doesnt, that not trump has just had an enormous day that could change things . Yes. But i think in two weeks well be calling new york the biggest primary and potential turning point. Look, ted cruz needs to win tonight. I think more pressure is on him to win. I would just say if trump wins today, new york isnt nearly as big. Like if trump would manage to come up, because this is a win or take contest today. Right. If trump can pull out an upset, absolutely because that flips all the polls, the expectations, cruz looks very damaged. I dont know where cruz wins after this. The only way this wisconsin really matters is if cruz translates tonights victory if he gets a victory. I think it has to be a double digit victory. Translate it into the northeast. After tonight this race moves to the northeast which on paper looks very good for trump. But david, if today kasich i mean if trump manages to lose today, and he cant say look at the polls, winning, winnings and the narrative disappears, isnt it easier for others to make their case for the nottrump crowd come new york and without that, isnt new york more difficult . I dont know if its more difficult because look, is ted cruz going to be able to sell in manhattan after slamming new york values. I think new york is a tough state for ted cruz. Its Donald Trumps home state. You have john kasich still in the race and hes playing there. He was in new york this week more than he was in wisconsin. So you have got the john kasich factor, you have got pennsylvania coming up as well where trump is ahead in the polls. Kasich is a factor. Im taking the long view on this and tonight looks like it will be a good night for ted cruz. But it has to build into something more than wisconsin. This is only 42 delegates. Unless what youre trying to do is stop 1237 from happening. If what you are is a nottrumper, i want something to happen in cleveland that i cant tell you what it is but i want it to be something not trump, if youre of that mindset today matters a lot. It does but even in that math trump has to win about 55, 57 of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Pretty tough. If he loses wisconsin that number goes up to 58 , 60 . If hes able to roll through the northeast, go out to california where hes ahead, hundreds of delegates there, he could get close. Hes still probably going to be short. Tonight wisconsin will be very, very important but theres a two week period until new york and that will become really important. It will. But you need that narrative. David, good to see you. Some clues about wisconsin. Move ahead to wakashaw. Coming up. Sometimes, maybe too hard. Get claimrateguard® from allstate. 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If youre going to win wisconsin you got to win wakashaw. So says the history for the last 20 years. Doug is at a polling place in wakashaw. How is the turnout. Reporter its been spectacular, shep. We have been here for the better part of the morning. A lull right now in mid day but the captain told us when he first came at 7 00 to open things up there was a line stretching from where that camera is down to this line out those doors and well into the parking lot. We just got off the phone with the county clerk who are said theyre expecting 80 turnout which is absolutely unbelievable. This is the registration table, open registration. You can be a democrat and register to vote in the republican primary or vice versa. Once you get your card you move down here. They figure out what ward youre in. You show an id. Tell them your name. For example you can say my name is or your id could say its richard hot and you can tell them im little ricky hot and thats good enough for them. Give them a ballot. When youre done, insert it in this machine and youre all done. You mentioned the importance, shep, of wakashaw county. It is one of a threesome of counties that to the north and west of milwaukee which are pivotal along with Washington Counties which may well foretell whats going to happen tonight. We have spoke to a Political Science professor who explained why. These voters are people who enjoy high incomes, high level of education, they are the people who do well in the International Global economy, although everyone in wisconsin has been hurt badly in the last five years of the recession. These counties actually do very well. Highly educated and probably not openminded to trumps brand. That analysis seems to be spot on at least according to the unscientific survey of voters we have done here. All seem to be very well read such as eileen. This is really hard election and i just felt he was the lesser of all the evils. I just felt from what i was reading and watching that he just seemed like the better one, candidate. Shep, eileen said she is a democrat but she registered as a republican and voted for ted cruz today. Shep, back to you. Thanks from wakashaw there today. Paying for somebodys vote can land you in prison. You cant pay for a vote but bribing a delegate to vote for you is a whole different thing because today is not a federal Elections Commission election, its a private thing done by a party. So bribing is okay . Regarding delegates . Our Senior Analyst says yes. Thats next. It takes a lot of work. To run this business. But i really love it. Im on the move all day long. And sometimes, i just dont eat the way i should. So i drink boost® to get the nutrition that im missing. Boost complete nutritional drink has 26 essential vitamins and minerals, including calcium and vitamin d to support strong bones and 10 grams of protein to help maintain muscle. All with a great taste. 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What happens today in wisconsin mostly is youre going to the polling place, and youre going to cast a vote and within each district in wisconsin at least, each district gets three delegates and whichever of the candidates wins the most within the district, three delegates are assigned to that candidate. Then you go to the convention and all the delegates come together and each of the delegates on the first ballot cast a vote for his or her candidate. If nobody has half of them plus one, in the republicans case 1237 delegate votes, then we revote. But the rules change. In that second round a lot of the delegates can vote for whomever they want. So you can change like if you were voting for trump you could vote for cruz, thats perfectly legal under many circumstances. Its within the rules. You see the federal Elections Commission does not have sway over this. Each party has its own rules and within the Republican Party it is also okay if you want to, to try to court these delegates, after the first round you do what the voters said but after that you can do whatever you want and i will gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today and allow you i will appreciate it if the you would vote for me, ill give you a ride there, maybe some walkaround money. What else can i give you if i want your vote on that second round . Turns out a little bribery maybe legal. Yes. Even though this looks and feels like an election and using the same voting booth for a real november election, its not an elec