Forcing a partial shutdown of the federal government and ra e raising fears of a default. Its a partisan standoff. President obama insists he has nothing to do with. During the course of my presiden presidency, i have bent over backwards to work with the republican party. And have purposely kept my rhetoric down. I think im pretty well known for being a calm guy. Sometimes people think im too calm. Joining panel this week, wall street journal columnist and Deputy Editor dan headinger. Washington columnist kim. And assistant editor james freeman. Your a calm guy. Sure. Comment on the calm guy, the president of the United States. He says he wont negotiate with the republicans until they do two things. One, pass a clean increase in the debt limit and a clean continuing resolution, with nothing attached except to fund the government. Whats his calculation . Let me just say i have personally spent four years bending over backwards to be fair to barack obama so let me try to do that right now. Theyre basically three things that i think he wants. One, that this is something people must not forget, because he has said it, he wants to take back control of the house of representatives in 2014. To do that, he has to give voters a reason to vote against republicans. Thats going on right now. You think thats the underlying motivation here . I absolutely think. He wants a shutdown . I think he would accept a shutdown. We have one now. Is he enjoying this . I think hes absolutely enjoying it. I watched his speech in maryland and he was enjoying himself. He wasnt calm. He was trashing the republicans and trashing john boehner. Nothing he said would have give be john boehner an incentive to negotiate with the president about anything. So what about default, which is a dicier proposition. Do you think hes toying with that too . Could he welcome that in order to blame it on republicans too . Interesting news stories that cape out this week. The treasury department, which would have to manage a default, is not giving the market any indication of what its plans are to manage that situation. Thats really unusual, paul, for a treasury. Not so much the republicans but the market thats going to have to deal with this crisis and they wont tell them what theyre going to do. I mean, it suggests that theyre planning for a situation that is a tremendous crisis that they can blame on the republicans. Its hard to avoid that conclusion. Thats very high risk. Heres the other thing, james, he may be thinking. Which is, you know what, the republicans are going to crack first. Theyre going to break here. Theyre going to before the default or whenever it is, john boehner will simply say, look, well turn it over to the house, whatever republicans want to vote for, so he can play this game of chicken. He can. I think he feels like hes winning so theres not a great urgency to move towards the republicans it but he does hate the sequester. He hates these limits on spending. Automatic spending cuts. That are built into the law now. Yes, hes thrilled to have obama care rolling in. This now pretty much takes off the table any new spending programs over the rest of his term. What he loves to do is create new spending programs. I think thats the letch raj for republicans ultimately to make him make an offer to them on resolving these issues. Okay, kip, lets talk about the republicans. Where are they . Publicly or a common front . Theres no question about that. And theyre holding firm. But behind the scenes, there are some disagreements. Why dont you explain whats going on . Well, look, the leadership never wanted to be in this shutdown. It was foisted on them. But now having arrived here, they realize the importance of having some sort of honorable exit. Because if they just fold on this and this is the fear that then barack obama knows hes got them on either other negotiation too and theyre sort of sitting ducks in the water. They canter exert leverage again. I think what is going on, along with what he said, theres talk of whether or not you cant roll this up into the debt ceiling argument as well, where the president has been willing to negotiate in the past. You get some sort of sequester as a leverage. You get some sort of budget reblican side. And then maybe something smaller on health care that satisfies those who have been pushing to fund. Thats the strategy that paul ryan and some of the other house leaders would like to get to as an exit strategy if they can. It takes two things. One, the president has to negotiate. If he doesnt negotiate, you cant get to these kinds of k e negotiati negotiations. Two, you have the ted cruz faction, which is basically saying we wont negotiate either over anything except obama care. What is the exit strategy that the cruzzites are saying . Heres our end game, heres where we want to arrive at . Do they have one . They have no end game, paul, theyve never had an end game. And, you know, i think what theyre hoping is that democrats are simply going to crack at some point under the pressure. I have not seen any sign of that. Theyve been taking vote after very difficult vote with new unanimity the democrats have . The democrats have. Because they understand, this goes back ton barack obama calculation, that this is the president s signature achievement. And to go so far as to do defund or even delay to a certain point is to fundamentally undercut that law and get rid of that achievement. Heres the thing. Will they really be willing, this group of republicans, to refuse to raise the debt limit . Is that what theyre saying now . At least some of them are now saying that. That you have to continue to not blink on that issue as well. Now, that is going to be a much harder thing for many in the caucus to do because they are very concerned about the president s ability to claim default. And even if you didnt go to default what would happen with the markets and the economy as a result of that . Gentleman, whats going to happen . I think you probably get some out of this, but i think i would like to emphasize the fact that the republicans may not have perfect strategy or tactics right now doesnt mean theyre not right on the underlying argument. We have too many entitlements. And heres another one. I dont think the fact that barack obama passed this law means that it can ever be changed. No, of course not, but the question is the raw political math. If you on have one house of congress, you cant expect to get everything you want. And the other piece of raw political math, if it begins to look as though some republican senators are not going to succeed in taking those six democratic seats theyve targeted, and if some of the congressmen from moderate seats in the north begin to look in pair, peril, i think theyll be tremendous pressure to end this. Less sob ons from the become rollout. What to watch for in the weeks ahead. Tickets . Hmm, sure. How m . Well, theres hannah, maddie, jen, sara m. , sara b. , sa whoa, whoa. Hold on. under his breath here it comes. We cant forget about your older sister thank you, thank you, thank you seriously . What . I get 2x the thankyou points on each ticket. Can i come . Yep. The Citi Thankyou preferred card. Now earn 2x the points on entertainment and dining out, with no annual fee. To apply, go to citi. Com thankyoucards [ male announcer ] 1. 21 gigawatts. Today, thats easy. Ge is revolutioning power. Supercharging turbines with advanced hardware and innovative software. Using data predictively to help power entire cities. So the turbines of today. Will power us all. Into the future. Help the gulf when we made recover and learn the gulf, bp from what happened so we could be a better, safer energy company. I can tell you safety is at the heart of everything we do. Weve added cuttingedge technology, like a new deepwater well cap and a stateoftheart monitoring center, whe experts watch over all drilling activity twentyfourseven. And were sharing what weve learned, so we can all produce energy more safely. Our commitment has never been stronger. Consider that just a couple weeks ago, apple rolled out a new mobile operating system. And within days, they found a glitch. So they fixed it. I dont remember anybody suggesting apple should stop selling iphones or ipads. President obama comparing the glitches in this weeks obama care rollout to apples new system. Has been following it ining th Affordable Care act from the start. He joins me now. Obama care, the joe ragle lifetime employment act. Steve jobs, you think he would have rolled out obama care with this . No, he would have fired the person in charge of it. It takes a lot of hubris, i think, to compare the launch of the obama care act with a world class product. In cell phones, you have the choice with the Samsung Galaxy or whatever and here youre mandated to buy this specific product. Its full of glitches. How serious are these tech know ological issues . Our contributor wrote an interesting piece this week saying theyre actually pretty serious, particularly the data control and entry and that risk of fraud is really serious. Right. What we saw this week was a kind of comic catch me if you cantype caper where journalists were trying to track down the one guy able to enroll through these exchanges. The point that scott makes is these are much deeper technological problems. They go to the real Information Technology architecture of the plan. The states that are going to be bouncing information off the irs and Social Security and health and hup services. Hes saying, this is really a weak system. Its going to expose consumers to identity theft. Theres going to be much larger problems, in terms of reconciling who gets subsidy who qualifies for coverage and so forth. To the extent consumers, the eninsured, are having these bad experiences and may have them over a period of time, the period of enrollment around january 1st, to what extent will this obama care act lose elevation with people, simply lose heart and decide its too difficult, ive got other things to do . They need big numbers of enrollees for the insurance pool to work. And so this is a serious problem for them. Its like, if your smart phone doesnt work, youre going to start seeing something else. Thats the risk theyre running, that people go elsewhere. The president conceded this wasnt ready. Delayed the business mandate for a year. He delayed the governments testing of income limits for people who would enroll. If youre making 1 million, technically, you can apply for subsidies and get them. The government may catch up with you later. Having made those concessions, why didnt the president then just delay the whole thing for another year . So we could avoid some of these problems and the dangers that dan talked about . Because he couldnt or at least he felt he couldnt politically. If you what he conceded in the end and what he exempted in the end was what he felt was the outer limits of what he felt he could get away with. Why couldnt he do that politically, kim, why couldnt he just delay it . Because if you acknowledge its not ready now, the reality is the Public Opinion on obama care has no way improved. It just continues to get worse. Democrats are increasingly worried about this law and what kind of liability it is for them in an election. By the way, a lot of the democrats who voted for this law in the first place, theyre not even here. You have a new generation of democrats who dont necessarily have the same loyalty to this law as the older generation. The fear for the president is that his own party, if this got delayed, may lose its nerve and bolt on this and it might never become a reality. I think the president wants to get the subsidies started. Because he wanted to get the body politic, if you will, on the i. V. Drip of subsidies. History shows once he starts to hand out subsidies, you get something free that somebody else is paying for, you dont want to give it up. Right. I think thats definitely part of his goal. I might question how successful thats going to be. As weve discussed, these are going to be very limited networks of doctors and hospitals. A kind of medicaidplus. And the other thing is for a lot of consumers, they dont qualify for a lot of subsidies. And so theyll be paying a lot of money. Right. When the regulations and mandates drive up the cost of Health Insurance and theyre not offset by subsidies, this may not be a good deal for a large section of the public. Is the key thing here to watch in the weeks ahead just how many people enroll in these and who they are, whether the sick or the healthy and young . Thats right. If you look at employer sponsored Health Insurance, about 15 of penal offople offe dont accept it. If that happens in the exchange marketplaces, you might have the same kind of problem. Thank you all very much. When we come back a u. N. Panel on Climate Change releases its latest report calling Global Warming unequivocal. So what about the warming that hasnt been happening since 1998 . Ly ing break thanks to her double miles from the capital one venture card. Now what was mrs. Davis teaching . Spelling. Thats not a subject, right . I mean, spell check. Thats a program. Algebra. Okay. Persons a and b are flying to the bahamas. How fast will they get there . Dont you need distance, rate and. No, all it takes is double miles. [ all ] whoa. Yeah. [ male announcer ] get away fast with unlimited double miles from the capital one venture card. Youre the worlds best teacher. This is so unexpected. Whats in your wallet . [ steam hisses ] actually. Guys [ female announcer ]. It can. Introducing swiffer steamboost powered by bissell. It gets the dirt that mops can leave behind with steamactivated cleaning pads that break down dirt and lock it away. How did you get this floor so clean . Steamboost, sir [ female announcer ] new swiffer steamboost powered by bissell. Not just clean, steamboost clean. A United NationsClimate Change panel released the findings of its fifth report this week calling Global Warming unequivocal but failing to explain one inconvenient truth. That the earths temperatures have been flat for the last 15 years. Wall street journal columnist and Deputy Editor brett steves joins us with more. Brett, how did the u. N. Square this contradiction between what their models have been predicting and what has actually been happening for last 15 years . They basically buried the lead or buried the news. They said there was 24page summary report had alarm its conclusion, at the begin and then you go down to page ten and you find this paragraph that says, well, theres this issue of the past 15 years, a pause in Global Warming. We dont know whether it will ever resume or not. Had been warming by about a degree celsius over the previous part of the century . Right. And then it seems to have essentially stopped. Theres variability. There may be something happening in the oceans, but theyre not entirely sure. Heat sink. Exactly. They acknowledge that there may be problems with their models which is very important. Because everything people think they know about client change based on the model. Based on computer sip lations. When you have huge data sets trying to calculate over 100year time spans over whether a temperature will rise by a half degree, 1. 5 degrees, you can have these sort of variations. What theyre essentially saying is there hasnt been the warming that weve expected, and were not entirely sure why, but we think the truth is out there, buried somewhere in the ocean. Couple theories. Theres sun spots, water vapor in the atmosphere and so on. The essence is they dont know. Isnt that how can they be so sure that Climate Change is going to happen . Seven years ago in that report, 2007 report, they said it will be very likely that by the end of the century, the globe will warm likely by 1. 5 degrees. About 2 degrees celsius. By the way, if someone said to you, the temperatures today is going to be lets say 78 degrees instead of 78, you probably want to worry that the end is near. So this has to be kept in perspective when you see these graphs of temperatures going up. Were talking about a degree or maybe two. Thats the essential thing. In other sciences, uncertainty is part of the discurious of all the science. They acknowledge they dont know. Were making fundamental discoveries about mars right now thanks to the rover up here. The voyagers make new discoveries. Yet theres this saying Global Warming is unequivocal and we must take drastic steps or were going to face a catastrophe. Climate scientists speak in a very different way from scientists in other disciplines. That lesson is uncertainty. That you don to wait and see now in particular with the last 15 years whether or not the climate models themselves are going to end u the temperatures going to match what the models are predicting so lets not jump to precipitous conclusion, but what do you think is the implications of this for policies in washington where the president has made Climate Change a big part of his second term agenda . This is exactly why they felt the need to bury the lead. Because youve now got a president who said he is going to enforce a agenda via regulatory means. Bodies like the u. N. , they want the United States to be a leader on this issue because they feel thats the only way they can pressure other countries like china and india to also somehow get on board. So theyre nothing going to do anything to derail this u. S. Movement and this u. S. President to start enforcing some sort of climate program. Go ahead. I was going to say its important for people to understand what a vehicle of convenience a the climate issue has been for classic redistributionists who have always wanted a strong government, a regulatory state, high taxes, who have been averse to to fossil fuels. This was true 50 years ago. To turn it all over to somebody, as opposed to what the real issue is, faster growth and cope with the consequences. We have to take one more break. When we come back, hits and misses of the week. 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