Say. Caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone. The factor begins right now. Hi, im bill oreilly. Thanks for watching us tonight. Handicapping the clintontrump race. That is the subject of this evenings talking points memo. As you may know, we at the factor like to advance stories, not give you the same old stuff over and over again. As we predicted weeks ago, Hillary Clinton will be running against trump for the presidency unless she is indicted over the email scandal. So, lets take a look at who has the advantage right now. An analysis of the Electoral College by the the Washington Post says that if mrs. Clinton wins all the states, traditionally win, plus d. C. , she only needs to win florida to become president. But that is a bit simplistic because donald trump should be more competitive in states like michigan and pennsylvania, than mitt romney was. However, there is no question, no question mrs. Clinton is a favorite to win at the moment. Even talk radio republicans are split on trump. My instinctive feeling right now is that trump is going to win, beat hillary badly; that it could be landslide proportions. I still dont think people understand why trump won this. I dont think they understand at all the reason people support trump. Because donald trump is the g. O. P. Candidate, and i believe Hillary Clinton is going to win because of this, you will never elect perso high office ever again. Because, whats going to happen is you are now going to have Hillary Clinton legalize as many voters as you can. Right now you can throw out the primary votes out of the window. About 20 of voting age americans participated in the primaries, leaving the vast number of Americans Still to be heard. Mr. Trumps support is fervent and that will help him. Secretary clintons support more tepid. However her advantage in the minority precincts and women substantial miss clinton putting forth she is not going to take any guff from donald trump. If he wants to go back to the playbook of 1990s. If he wants to follow in the footsteps of those that are tried to knock me down and take me out of the political arena, im more than happy to have him do that. This is, to me, a classic case of a blustering bullying guy who who has knocked out of the way all the republicans because they were just dumbfounded. For his part, mr. Trump told me last night he is more than happy to take the low road if Hillary Clinton attacks him. That sets up a very unpredictable race. Remember, a debate between clinton and trump will be the most watched political event in history. Summing up anything could happen. Hillary clinton has to be considered the favorite today. Thats the memo. Now reaction, joining us from washington Richard Sam Mary olinger monday, kiplinger letter and here in new york city dr. David rothschild founder of predictwise. Com. So predictwise, whats your prediction . Well, right now, were looking at about 70 that Hillary Clinton defeats donald trump. Thats the same odds they have in london. That is the same odds. Yeah. We are looking very closely at the prediction markets. These are places where people buy and sell contracts that are worth money if they win, worth no money if they lose. They are saying about 70 . You cant bet on a president ial race in america. Its illegal, correct . Actually, you can. There are smaller places that the ftc has allowed. Internet. Vegas wont. 850 per contract that you can go to predict it and make these bets. What we are seeing here is this splits the difference between the fundamental models that say, look, generic republican, generic democrat you are at a tossup maybe slight democratic edge in hypothetical matchup points showing Hillary Clinton dominating donald trump. But these are still very early. And most people dont know who the no, nominee is going to be. The odds change. 70 hillary, 30 trump . Thats right. How do you see, mr. Sammon . Thats a move straight up to november. I would give Hillary Clinton 2 in 3 chance in being elected. 1 in 3 chances nothing. What trump needs to do is to win florida. He needs to keep his base really excited the whole way through. And he also needs them to turn out. He needs them to replace votes that he loses in the women sector, in the minority sector, and, yes, he has a one third chance. He also needs to perform extremely well in the president ial debates which are different than the primary debates. You know, mr. Sammon, i believe there is a chance that Hillary Clinton wont debate him. And she will say, particularly if it gets really nasty and personal. She will say, look, im not going to put myself through it i dont know, i mean, i cant predict that will happen, but there is a chance because im trying to put myself in each candidate wants shoes, and if trump is really going to town on Monica Lewenski and these things, i dont think mrs. Clinton will show up and she will say, look, nobody would. But, if it does happen, a clintontrump debate, i think you are right, that, doctor, could just put this whole thing on its ear, right . I think the interesting question is where is this uncertainty . And you are hearing this question about the doe baits. Well, the debates are pretty late in the game. Very few people really change their mind that late. And, also, voter turnout is pretty sticky. Year after year the same sort of people turnout. Im going to question one thing you said at the top which is this question is it better for trump to be thinking about pulling off ohio, virginia, the kind of classical swing states or leapfrogging over to michigan and pennsylvania . And i think that if he actually has a chance, its actually going to be in the slight changes in those states that have been historically tight swing. The ones that are really hurting economically i agree with you would be the states that he could spend a lot of time in and, perhaps, you know, turn it around. But they have to have a lot of electoral votes. Is it fair, mr. Sammon, when you take a look at it that a state like california is a Hillary Clinton state no matter what trump does. Yeah. I agree with you. So thats enormous amount of electoral votes right there. Texas will be a donald trump state, no matter what Hillary Clinton. I dont even think you are going to see Hillary Clinton in texas. You didnt see barack obama and he went down there once. New york, trumps home state, more than two to one democrat to republican registered only two to one. Trump could win here but i would have to do much better in the new york city area which is friendly clinton territory. So just in the Electoral College, it looks like donald trump doesnt have much margin for error at all. I would keep an eye on new york. You make a good point. New york doesnt have to always be in the democratic side of the equation. There is a lot of rural areas that support donald trump. There is a lot of the city that does, too. And, also, there is a lot of people who dont want another clinton again. And so new york could be in play. The same is true with pennsylvania. Almost always goes democratic. Thats because of the philadelphia, metropolitan area. You look at the middle of pennsylvania, that could become very competitive. And, remember, we are in a volatile year. Not every forecast of every state is going to hold true one month to the next. Okay. Let me disagree with mr. Sammon on that. Go ahead. Which is to say if you are thinking about electoral strategy. If he wins new york he has probably won 47 other states. We dont see the dramatic types of swings that we see in previous to 1980, previous to 1992. Were seeing a much more stable environment. There is not that much shift and turnout from cycle to cycle. There is very little shift in sentiment for most people. You have a third of the population who highly identifies with one party. Third of the population highly identifies with the other party. Most independents vote the same way year in and year out. You have personalities that purchase, much larger although barack obama was a big personality. But this one . But i do concur that right now mrs. Clinton is in a power position. But there are so many variables surrounding her that it could change. You guys were good tonight. I want to bring you back for update maybe every six or seven weeks to see how things change. Gentlemen, thank you. Next on the rundown, Hillary Clinton already has an attack ad out against trump. Dana perino will analyze it. Also a medal of honor recipient. True American Hero will tell us harrowing story of fighting for his life in average. Wait until you hear this upcoming. Savings whiplash. You know, from Car Insurance companies shouting, save 500 bucks over here. No, save 300 bucks over here. Wait, save 400 bucks right here. With so many places offering so much buck saving, where do you start . Well, esurance was born online, raised by technology, and majors in efficiency. So, theyre actually built to save you money, and when they save, you save. Thats auto and Home Insurance for the modern world. Esurance, an allstate company. Click or call. Introduces new, easytoswallow tablets. So now, there are more ways, for more people. To experience. Complete protection from frequent heartburn. Nexium 24hr. The easytoswallow tablet is here. With toothpaste or plain water. An their dentures and even though their dentures look clean, in reality theyre not. If a denture were to be put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists on the denture, and that bacteria multiplies very rapidly. Thats why dentists recommend cleaning with polident everyday. Polidents unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99. 99 of odor causing bacteria. For a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . In the impact segment tonight, didnt take long but Hillary Clinton already has an antitrump ad on the net. Everything i say and do folks, i do. Okay . I will get rid of gunfree zones on schools. My first day it gets signed, okay . Planned parenthood should absolutely be defunded. Get rid of obamacare. I will build a great, great wall. Were going to have a deportation force. A total and complete shutdown of muslims entering the United States. When you get these terrorists, you have to take out their families. With us now dana perino whose big best seller and the good news is now in paperback. There it is. Doing yoga on the cover. Very good. What did you think of that ad . I always think its effective when you use somebodys own words against them. So if you are going into a debate, you want to know what your opponent has said, know their record better than they do, and then be able to make them try to defend it. Here are the two things i took out of it. Number one, this might make more people vote for trump. Thats the paradox. Right. Going, yeah. I dont like planned parenthood. Yeah. I wants obamacare repealed. So, it might help him. Number two, the music. If youre going to make him into a ghoul. You have got to have hard music internet ads dont have the best music. Good possible business venture. But this, i mean, those who do not like donald trump dont need to be reminded of his palm bass bombastic statements. This was not meant for them. These are the zombies on the internet that dont know anything. Or her supporters. Has to show that she is willing to fight him. There is probably only about 8 of voters who are persuadable or gettable at this point. And all of the Campaign Something going to be trying to get them. You make a good point. A lot of people addicted to the internet that dont know anything oh, look at this. Now, today, in donald trump got some bad news president bush the older and president bush the younger, romney, are not going to support donald trump. Big names. Add them to john mccain and other Establishment Republicans. Do you think that will effect the vote . In november . Yes. Possibly. But i think also that what donald trump would say look, im bringing all these other new republicans in. Of course thats what he would say. Lets deal with reality. The rift is real. This are conservatives who feel they dont have a good choice this time around. These are establishment people. You still need them. I dont know something and i need you to tell me. Okay. All right . Trump is saying, look, im not going to win over the Establishment Republicans. Thats what i ran against. I ran against the blowup the establishment. Of course they are not going to how is that going to impact him though . I do think there is a real risk that you have a significant number of Establishment Republicans or even those that would consider themselves conservatives that are not going to be able to pull the switch for him. Thats not true for all of them. I think he has already shown an ability to peal off some. Yeah, newt gingrich, Rudy Giuliani. Going to be running for governor of virginia. He was the former head of the rnc. I think that donald trump actually do do a little bit more picking up the phone and saying i know i might not be your cup of tea but please get behind me. You dont know if is he doing that. I dont know if he is doing it. You know he has talked to marco rubio on the phone. Yeah. And he did talk to paul ryan and he said that they have had good conversations. What ends up happening is you have something more like a coalition government. Say donald trump wins the presidency, speaker ryan is the speaker of the house. They have to figure out a way to work together. I dont think thats going to be the difficulty. The difficulty is going to be the election. Him getting it because right now. Which is why a lot of people that have been reluctant to support trump from the beginning have been saying they want to back a winner as well. The party and new voters have chosen donald trump as the nominee. So, there is that. And there are benefits and consequences to a total disruption. And you have to figure out a way to accept that and try to make up for the deficit on the other side. Its going to be an eerie convention with the two former republican president s not being there and two candidates who ran and were defeated not being there. You know george h. W. Bush is not somebody he didnt go to the last convention. Is he retired from politics. You know what im saying. All the big republican guys you have to understand also from george w. Bush perspective look at what donald trump has said about him that he should have been impeached for war crimes that he lied about 9 11. Forget the brother, what he said is Conspiracy Theory disproven by bipartisan im not criticizing them for not going. Okay. Its too hard for them to go. It is very difficult for them to go. They also are not going to be working against him. No. They dont like they dont like hillary and that progressive agenda. I have never seen like this in my 40 years of experience. Me neither. Where you have a real outsider now controlling the republican party. And part of the party is not going to show up. Right. Dana perino, everybody, directly ahead, College Campuses attacking free speech. Boston university did it to me. We have a special report. And, later, Bernie Goldberg on whether cable news and the network news are happy about a clintontrump run. Well be right back. Allergies. And im doing just fine. Claritin provides 24hour relief of symptoms that can be triggered by over 200 allergens. Yeah, over 200 allergens with claritin my allergies dont come between me and victory. Live claritin clear. Are not equal especially when it comes to reducing lead in your water. Zerowaters fivestage filter is the only one certified by the nsf to reduce lead lead that conventional, two stage filters may leave behind. So, if you want the puresttasting water and the water filter thats proven to reduce lead look for zerowater. Get more out of your water. As long as you love me, its alright bend me shape me, any way you want me. Shape the best sleep of your life. Sleep number beds with Sleepiq Technology adjust any way you want it. The bed that moves you. Only at a sleep number store. Factor followup segment tonight. College students attacking freedom of speech. Writing in the wall street journal jason riley says he was disinvited to speak at the University VirginiaTech University i should say. The dean of the school said mr. Reilly was not telling the truth. Then, jason produced an email that proved he was reporting accurately that he was disinvited, thereby, showing the dean to be the one with the truth deficit. After that the school, virginia tech, reinvited jason. He must be dizzy. A few years ago i did a benefit for it happened to Alexa Foundation at Boston University because alexa, a student there, was raped on campus. Now, i have a graduate degree from b. U. That should have been a major event on campus. A positive event to help people like alexa. But, b. U. Faculty members, at least a few of them, tried to sabotage the evening because of me and partially succeeded. All over the u. S. A. This kind of stuff is happening on a daily basis. Joining us now from raleigh, north carolina, Robert Shibley executive director for the foundation. How bad is it really . Its actually quite bad. Its hard to exaggerate the problem. Fire, my organization, the foundation for individual rights and education has been compiling lists of disinvitation attempts and successes. We have seen since the year 2000, 305 separate disinvitation