So against all odds, donald trump is now one person away from being president of the United States. To use the comment vernacular we have an Awesome Program for you tonight including Jesse Watters talking politics at the rock and roll hall of fame. But we begin with the talking points memo. How donald trump can indeed win the presidency. Take a look at the Electoral College map for 2012 when barack obama won 332 electoral votes, mitt romney 206. 270 are need to do get the big job. In order to defeat Hillary Clinton, trump would have to win all the States Romney won. And add at least three more large states. That will not be easy because west of the mississippi trump does not play as well as he does in the east. So states like arizona and utah, which romney easily carried, may be competitive this time around. Writing in the wall street journal today john bray bendbender a republican strategist says trumps president ial hopes hinge on winning in ohio, pennsylvania, and florida. According to recent polls all those states are in play. Trump could win them. If donald trump does prevail in ohio, pennsylvania, and florida, and can fight off Hillary Clinton west of the mississippi, he will be president. If mr. Trump wins new york, which he thinks he can do, he will take up residence on pennsylvania avenue. However, new york very tough state for republicans with so many minority voters. The trump card, pardon the pun, is anxiety. Most americans not happy with the direction their country has taken. In fact in a recent Associated Press poll 79 of americans say they are frustrated with the u. S. A. For various reasons. If anxiety grows, and it well could with terror attacks, police assassinations, very shaky economy trump will get stronger and capitalize on the disebb chantment thats because Hillary Clinton is a conventional candidate. Pretty much to carrying on president obamas policies. Other recent polling has a race tie between trump and clinton. As talking points has pointed out, these polls mean little at this point. The doe baits begin in september and they will mean everything. But donald trump does have a chance, a real chance to become president. And thats the memo. Now for the top story, reaction. Joining us from cleveland. Dr. Larry sabato, director of the university of virginia senator for politics. And in washington, the aforementioned john braybender a republican strategist did. I capture your column today . Absolutely. Did you donald trump is not your quintessential republican nominee. The way for him to get to the white house is not to follow the game plan we have in the past. I think the real target for him are the suns and daughters of the reagan democrats and they have happen to reside in the rust belts in states like ohio and pennsylvania. If he can win those states and add florida, is he president of the United States. And i think he can do it. You think he can but you are a republican. So i mean but thats probably not fair but its almost a color thing now, doctor. Because in the recent polling, despite mr. Trump saying is he doing well among africanamericans, he had no votes in pennsylvania and ohio. No black votes, zero. Okay. So, he has got to turn out a massive amount of white voters in working class white voters in those states, correct . Thats absolutely true. And thats why as john argues, his best route to victory is really through the rust belt. I dont really see another one. I disagree with john about florida. I agree with him about ohio and pennsylvania and i would say his best route to victory is ohio plus pennsylvania plus michigan, plus wisconsin. If he carries those four plus all the romney states, including north carolina, which is tough, he gets exactly 270 votes. Okay. But wisconsin i cant see it maybe im wrong. Michigan is interesting. Michigan is an interesting place. But florida, you know, trump did very well in the primary down there wiping out marco rubio a hometown guy. He is a florida resident, trump, part time. He has got a Good Organization based on the governor of florida. You think he can win there, mr. Braybender, correct . Absolutely. If i was Hillary Clinton who would scare me in the polls. The longer trump can go where he starts to become acceptable to more people it becomes a real problem for her. Florida right now, most of the polls are within the that gin of error. Why do you think he cant win down there, doctor, in florida . Well, in fact, the polling average in florida favors clinton by several percentage points. And the balance, the demographic balance in florida has actually changed considerably just over four years. You noted, bill, minority voters and thats including africanamericans, hispanic americans, asian americans, you put all minority voters together, and Hillary Clinton is going to get about 80 to 58 . Donald trump will be lucky if he hits 20 with all of those minority groups. Well, you look at florida, the demographics of florida, headed much more minority, i think it helps Hillary Clinton considerably. How has it changed in four years though . Who has gone to florida . Why is it different than it was in 2012 . You have loads of Puerto Ricans who have moved from puerto rico to various places in florida. They are, of course, already u. S. Citizens. And i understand some major registration campaigns have been held in florida to make sure theyre ready to vote in november. They are overwhelmingly democratic. Isnt it true, mr. Brabender and you cited this that the republicans have also had a surge in Voter Registration in florida, right . A huge surge. Not only there in places like pennsylvania a lot of democrats have switched to republican. And the reason is donald trump. The other thing that im truly convinced of is that there is a secret or a closet donald trump vote. We see that in a lot of states where he overperformed came primary day. I think you may very well see the same thing on general election day. So it comes down to and boy the way, doctor, dunk that trump can hold utah and arizona real fast out there in the west . Utah, definitely. Its just too heavily republican. Arizona, i would lean it to him but i think he has got a lot of work to could there to nail it down. Nevada though which went for nevada, thats in play now isnt it, mr. Brabender . Yeah iowa is in play, new hampshire, colorado potentially, minnesota there still is a lot of other places to pick up. But the bottom line is if donald trump cant do well in the rust belted, i just think its too big of a lift. I think florida is going to see the most action. Thats a big state. A lot of electoral votes. Trump is convinced can he take it. Gentlemen, very interesting. We appreciate it very much. And it is shortly after 8 00 p. M. In cleveland as donald trump has been the republican nominee now for approximately an hour. The reason that trump secured the nomination in the first place is that millions of americans are frightened, disenchanted, disgusted with what has happened to the u. S. A. Over the past few years. Again, it is the anxiety factor that is propelling donald trump. Joining us now from Cleveland Lisa booth and juan williams. Do you disagree with that, juan . No, bill. Youre exactly right. The polls are very clear about the high level of anxiety. People saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. Where i would disagree with your analysis is that you have people like trump ohio think are perpetrating lies and distortions to stir that fear and anxiety so they can politically exploit it to their advantage. I dont know if you have spread and those are your words lies and distortions when you have 11 Police Officers gunned down this month alone and you have the nice attack. Bill, hold on, you know if you look at the murder rate in this country, you look at the crime rate in this country, its better today than it was in the 1950s. You know if you look at terrorism. Pardon the phraseology is a targeted situation when were seeing assassinations of Police Officers by domestic terrorists. We have at the moment but that is not mean youre unsafe or im unsafe. Im not meaning to hype it up. Its there. Right. Lisa, with 79 of americans disenchanted and that includes a lot of leftwing americans who dont think that we are progressive enough. We have to add that okay. Why does Hillary Clinton think that she can win running on an im going to do pretty much what barack obama has done . It just doesnt make any sense if 79 are disenchanted, does it . It doesnt make any sense. New look at the states mentioned earlier florida, ohio and pennsylvania. 70 of americans say the system is broken and they want radical change. You see the unrest in the country whether its Racial Divisions or seeing the world burn with isis and americans feeling very unsettled there is a reason that donald trump is saying set Law Enforcement candidate. It addresses those concerns of unrest in both the country and abroad. It also cuts to the heart of the lawless in of Hillary Clinton with her email server and private email. I wonder if there is enough white voters though, juan. Pause it is, i think thats an accurate stat that 80 of minorities will vote for Hillary Clinton, 20 for trump. Its a turnout situation as we all know. But, there are a lot of white americans who feel aggrieved and feel that their country is not what it used to be and many, many ways, shapes and forms. Thats what donald trump is tapping into in pennsylvania and michigan and those socalled rust belted states. But, again, if you were advising Hillary Clinton, would you advise her to run on Barack Obamas record with such a high anxiety rate in this country . Would you do that . Yeah. I would say, look, you say to people lets look at the facts. Lets look at the fact that we have unemployment down now below 5 . You try to persuade them out of their anxiety . Yes, because i think you say to people dont buy the hype. Wait a second. Lets look at the fact that wages are rising right now for the last two years. Middle class has been completely left behind. No. Yes, they have. The rich have gotten richer and middle class has been left behind by this economy. Completely stagnant. Middle class from across the country have not seen pay increases. They are feeling this economic pain and that is something that donald trump is speaking to. You look at states like indiana, michigan, west virginia, you name it and majority of americans are actually buying in to the message that donald trump is selling regarding trade. That these bad trade deals are leaving americans behind. That is the very reason why Hillary Clinton. Juan. Okay. Look, what you are saying then is youre advising Hillary Clinton, if you were her advisor, all right, to try to persuade people that theyre not feeling anxious so they shouldnt feel anxious. No, no, no, no. When they do. No. I have a headache, wait a minute. You cant say that. Juan, you are telling me i really dont have a headache and making up the headache and if i would just look at juans stats i wouldnt have it . No, no. You must be the guy that wrote that speech for Melania Trump. Oh, come on. What im trying to say bill oreilly, she says you are feeling fear and anxiety. People are trying to stir you up to take advantage of that. They dont have to stir them up. Given what you said about minority voters. Yeah. Someone like trump is going to lead to more Racial Division and more anxiety. Not giving you any real solution for economic problem. You can say anything you want and both candidates will but the fact remains when people feel anxious, when they feel anxious as the Associated Press, believe me, no conservative bastion, okay as they have chronicled, you cannot talk them out of feeling anxious unless do you a therapy session and a lot of folks i dont know can handle that. Reassure people that you know what you are doing and that you can lead them to a better future. You can assure but i dont know if the fbi helped all of that go ahead, lisa. If you want to talk about which candidate is trying to play up the fears of americans, look at what Hillary Clinton is doing specifically regarding black lives matter. There is no candidate who panders more to the fears of americans than Hillary Clinton does. So, please, spare me, juan. Its not make sense. Wait a minute. I dont want it to be a partisan discussion. Lets go to juan, you know, attacking me and ad hominem way saying i wrote Melania Trumps speech last night. This is a small ball but its worth noting, all right. Heres what mrs. Trump said as opposed to what mrs. Obama said. Roll it. My parents impressed on me the value that you work hard for what you want in life. That your work is your bond and you do what you say and keep your promise, that you treat people with respect. Barack and i were raised with some of the same values, like you work hard for what you want in life. That your word is your bond, that you too what you say youre going to do. That you treat people with dignity and respect. All right, lisa, now, whoever wrote Melania Trumps speech and someone was hired to write it, should be fired. You cant crib like that. Its insane to think you could have gotten away with it. It wasnt Melania Trumps fault by the way because she is not a professional. She probably looked at the speech, who could know, i didnt even know until it was pointed out. So wouldnt you say the Trump Campaign should say yes, the speech writer screwed up, theyre fired. We got new speech writers, right . Thats the way to handle it, is it not . Yes. They screwed up here. This not good for the Trump Campaign. Its going to be a twoday story not good for the Trump Campaign. Plays into clintons narrative that donald trump is not prepared to be president. Especially on a day he should be thawing about drugs. Always reasonable. No youre not. I heard a bunch of excuses no excuse for plargism. Its not Melania Trumps fault. Juan, i will give you the last words god help me, go. I think its evidence of this organization, lack of strong evidence of the Trump Campaign being in control. And its not just on Melania Trump who by the way says she wrote the speech, bill, so i dont know whats going on there. Where is the state organization . Where is the ads against Hillary Clinton . Stop with the partisan stuff. We got it going. Juan, you are going to sit there and tell me. No, that wasnt partisan im just saying political professionals worry about that campaign. Are you going to sit there and tell me that you think Melania Trump wrote that speech. No. But she said it. We heard people like paul man for come out today, its the ridiculous and liberals tacking, i think thats nuts. Birth is more concerned about this than is he with Hillary Clinton emails and emails server. Aall i want to do is be fair when you take a peach and pen contributed part the of it. She did not right it from scratch we agree on that. We agree. When we come right back, do you, the alert american citizen believe the Entertainment Industry drives antiPolice Violence . Do you believe that . Very provocative report next. You do all this research on a perfect car, then smash it into a tree. Your Insurance Company raises your rates. Maybe you shouldve done more research on them. For drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Just one of the many features that comes standard with our base policy. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. Debate over antipolice rhetoric is endless. Police on high alert because 11 Law Enforcement officers have been rah sass sin nateed just this month. Latest in kansas shot dead in the line of duty. Situation across the country very intense. Now in 1988, a rap group called nwa put out a record that actually threatened the police hell a take out a cop or two they cant cope with me. Some mothers [bleep] feeling that mad with poo yesterday, one of the rappers involved with that piece of garbage ice cube was confronted about the situation. [bleep] police is legendary song. Have you thought about maybe not performing it anymore . Nah. You will continue to form it . Yeah. What is your like mind set behind that . Like has anyone came up to you and pressured you to do that . Pressured me to do what . To stop performing [bleep] the police. No. Nobody said nothing to me. I aint going to change nothing i do. Not me because i aint doing nothing wrong. Joining us from Cleveland Greg gutfeld and new york city bernard mcguirk. This guy ice cube is an actor, well known guy, has a lot of money back in 1988 these guys were trying to establish themselves. Not excuse. Vile piece of work. Now after everything happened still unrepentant. What does that say to you. First thing is hating cops is a stepping stone to a great career ice cube ended up making millions playing a Police Officer in ride along. If you look at ice tea who wrote cop killer in his band body count now in 16th y