Months for the president. I do think steve is right in the sense that boehner probably staved off a coupe. If boehner had brought off a clean bill to keep the government open i think he would have faced an insurrection on his hands so boehner lived to fight another day. Rose we conclude this evening with a new film getting a lot of attention called 12q9 years a slave. It is directed by Steve Mcqueen and stars Michael Fassbender and Chiwetel Ejiofor chit. At some point i wanted to make a movie thats labored and to me there was a whole in the cannon about this subject. It wasnt reference ed, it wasnt there for me. I wanted to sort of investigate that. I wanted to sort of find out about that in a way which wasnt sort of predicting all sort of putting away my stencil on this. Rose the political story in washington and a new movie called 12 years a slave. When we continue. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. We are here. The government should be open. Now we should be able to pay our debts and as weve said and will continue to say, we if that happens if will negotiate on anything, anything, and the president confirmed that today. Rose we begin today with a potential break through in the budget standoff. Speaker boehner offered a sixweek increase in the debt ceiling in exchange for opening negotiations on a longterm deal for tax reform and deficit reduction. So what we want to do is to offer the president today the ability to move. A temporary increase in the debt ceiling in agreement to go to conference on the budget, for his willingness to sit down, discuss with us a way forward to reopen the government and to start to deal with americas pressing problems. Rose boehners proposal would not tend partial shutdown now in its tenth day, president obama had said reopening the government was a precondition of negotiations. The president and house leadership met earlier this afternoon at the white house. Joining me now are washington jonathan martin. He is the National Political correspondent for the new york times. With me in new york, mike allen, he is chief White House Correspondent for political and editor of the capitols must read daily play book. Qpts and steven rattner, an author and wall street finance sere, helped turn around the Auto Industry in 2009. Jonathan martin, let me begin with you, do you know anything as we speak at 5 45 eastern time we assume that cantor and baner are talking with the president about this deal. Going into it, give us a sense of what you think where the party stood and what lines they had drawn and did the proposal which put them in the room seem likely to create some kind of agreement so that the white house would be agreeing to this deal even though the president said no negotiations until you reopen the government . I think theres no question that today really offered the first glimmer of light since the shutdown. There was going to be some kind of deal cut. It looks like now that its probably going to be on a debt ceiling, that it will be pushed back at least six weeks. Six weeks until thanksgiving. Still were uncertain about whats going to happen on the actual reopening of the federal government. Theres no question that today i think really offered an opportunity and whats fascinating now is that youve got the republicans in both chambers the house and the senate willing to give at least in the short term on the debt ceiling but the Senate Republicans also want to give on both. They really want to reopen the government and lift the debt ceiling. Charlie, what Speaker Boehner saw was this there was no winning path where where from where he was. So hes trying to incemently move his guys to a better place. So over the last few days you see him talking less and less about obamacare. When they started to talk about entitlements, tax reform, bringing paul ryan back into the picture, that was moving more into a winning position and charlesedly way this deal is going to be cut is over the definition of the words clean and negotiate. What can you tack on to a clean bill which is what they had wanted as far as promises about future talks and not violate that and when the white house says they wont negotiate but they are. Sure, look, the white house is having a meeting right now and thats a form of negotiation so obviously white house is going to talk about this. I think whats interesting is that the hard right that boehner has been so worried about for the last several weeks seems to have given him enough run ty do this sixweek extension, that even they or enough of them, anyway, have realized they were heading for pro serb yall political cliff and about to go over it. Rose clearly the markets have reacted to this news. They were up 300 points or so. Over 2 , 300 points on the dow. The market has been increasingly worried about this situation. It looked for a while as mike was implying that it was intractable that republicans are asking for things on the Affordable Care act that there was no way the president was going to give. It had been so obvious for so long that he wasnt that was what frustrate sod many republicans. Sure, but when you read what some of these regard right republicans that have been saying, some were saying that a default would be a good thing and that wed live within our means and completely crazy things. So in the last few days the markets have been increasingly nervous when you look whereat treasury bills have been going where the cost of insurance on u. S. Government debts were going we were heading for a bad place. Rose jonathan . I was going to say what is so remarkable about the last 272 hours is how obamacare has been disapyred, to borrow the old soviet phrase. Its one of those lenin era pictures where they rub out of the photo the first they dont want to see in the photo. This notion that that was the central issue has really fallen in the memory hole starting, i think, with that paul ryan on ned the journal and ever since then you dont hear about it at all from a lot of conservative folks in the house and certainly not in the leadership. They want to get this on a more favorable terrain which is longterm spending. Rose let me understand this. As part of what boehner recommended, the negotiations to take place between the preponderate the if the debt ceiling is extended negotiations, charlie, these are conversations, these are talk it is. Rose theyre not negotiating. No. The president wont negotiate. Rose is anybody saying that obamacare funding will or will not be on the table in the talks were something from obamacare fund willing not be in my opinion obamacare fund willing not be on the table in any direct sense of the word. There will be no delay, no defunding. Rose so he will not be accuse odd giving in on obamacare. However, when you get into entitlements which the republicans will want to get into and which i think we should get into health care broadly speaking will be on the table in some form of fashion but not obamacare. And the question is, can the Congressional Republican leadership use what steve is talking about as a fig leaf . If they can get something on you know, anything related to longterm health care spending, will that give boehner some kind of cover to sell to his most conservative members as we did something about this issue. It may not have been own care per se. That to me is the big question tse can he find some kind of cover with what steve is talking about. Rose one sign of what this is by republicans is theyre going to need a lot of democratic votes to do it which they originally had not wanted to d. Im told that this will get 120 republican votes, theyll need 100 democratic votes so thats why they have to have both ends of pennsylvania, both chambers going along with it. To pick up on jonathans point, the incredible irony of this mess for republicans is they had not gotten in the shutdown situation, if theyd not gotten into a default countdown, the botched rollout of obamacare one of the worst product rollouts you can imagine would have been a much bigger story. Rose all the air was sucked out by the discussion by the shutdown. Mike is completely right about that. But lets also as we sit here celebrating the stock market going up and the debt lets not get to sanguine about this situation. Because now youve still got youve kicked the can six weeks down the road. Youve still got very hard choices. Republicans have put no ask on the table other than the obamacare which is gone we dont know what they want on deficit reduction. We dont know know about what the president prepared to do. But the president said theres no deal without revenues. Boehner said theres no revenues so youve got that. Rose does that have to dedo with no elimination of deductions as a source of rev. Rose . Thats a semantic question as to whether the republicans can convince themselves that getting rid of deductions and not revenue is tax reform. Charlie, very important asterisk to too old this conversation is that the white house hasnt accepted this yet. It looks like they havent rejected it. It looks like theyll go along with it but we saw the Senate Democratic leader harry reid today saying there wouldnt be talks until the government is reopened. Right now republicans are contemplating of doing this avoiding default, they tell me from all over the country, they tell me they are not feeling pressure to reopen the government. I agree with that. Theres no way the white house is not going to accept an extension of the debt ceiling no matter what else. The question is will they go along there are going to be talks. Rose and they dont mind talking about entitlement reform anyway, do they . Up to a point. Rose they dont mind saying flatly come out of the white house but they will talk about entitlement reform because t count rip is concerned about the issue of debt and entitlement reform. And businesses very much so. The country is concerned about it however 70 of Tea Party Members dont think medicare should be changed. So theres a disconnect between the country saying they have to deal with entitlements, deficit, the debt. But dont touch my medicare rose its the famous line during the campaign when somebody said dont you let the government touch my medicare laughter so we see what comes out of this. On the broader question of who won and who lost, boehner wins in this or boehner lose this is because he got his party to recognize that it was going down into a very bad place that might cause a Huge Division that they may not recover from not only by 2014 but by 2016. Just emphasize this is one battle and a big war. This is not the ultimate victory. I think boehner himself won, the that he actually got his caucus to a place but i think the Republican Party are still the big losers here in terms of having been perceived to have created this in the first place. Rose subpoena the president the win, jonathan, or he simply did not views in he survived but he got mix on him, too, charlie. No question that his numbers have taken a hit with this on the heels of what happened with syria and you had a rollout of the Affordable Care out that has not been a good couple months if for president. I think steve is right in the sense that boehner probably staved off a coup. If boehner had brought up some kind of a clean bill to keep the government open i think he would have faced an insurrection on his hands so boehner lived to fight another day. So me whats going to be fascinating is how this plays out in the Midterm Elections next year and what kind of damage the republicans face. Their brand in the Gallup Survey is down to a serious low. I think 28 of the country approves of republicans. So can they recover in Time Next Year to win back the senate . Can they still hold the house . The longer, longer term issue, though, is what this does for the brand among moderate folks in this country who see the republicans represented by, you know, hardline conservatives like ted cruz. How do they recover . How do they come back as a party and make themselves relevant again on a National Level when a lot of people in this country see them remitted by some voices that are fairly strident. And thats the problem is this isnt going to change. One of the republicans very worried about 2014 and 2016 said the problem we have is that people calling the plays from our side are from texas and utah when they need to be from the suburbs of philly. Rose does ted cruz come out a winner this . Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. Rose because he has some claim on the right of the Republican Party . Hes a senator whos been there for nine months, is wildly popular with his base. His name ild in states well beyond texas is through the roof. Hes created a niche for himself in the senate and if he wants it he could parlay this i think to run for the president ial nomination. The question to me with cruz is how long can this last . Can he sustain this . The scrutiny he will get on a president ial campaign is far different than what hes gotten here so far and it will be coming much more intensely from his fellow republicans. If the he think he is had it bad now at the senate luncheon, wait until he runs in iowa and New Hampshire and starts getting elbows from folks like Chris Christie and scott walker. Jonathan is completely right. He elevated himself on to the National Stage but i think hes a meteor, i think hes a sarah palin figure with a brain thats going cascade across the cosmos for a while and then ultimately become a fringe element of the party. I dont think his party wants him and rubio may go down with him before in is over. Rose because of his immigration hes run right towards him. The tea party. Twhoops the tea party . The tea party is emboldened. The tea party is stronger and we hear again and again about Tea Party Candidates announcing or people worried that theyre going to get the tea party. So weve been asking is the tea party a mood or a movement . Its clearly a movement and it has staying power. Rose what does this do for the remainder of Barack Obamas second term . It is going to be one little crisis after another . The question of syria, iran, israeli palestinian. Is the idea of this president having some bold new initiatives gone and he will rise or fall on these negotiations and what happens to obamacare . Its much more democrats are very concerned that he already looks like a lame duck. This was part of the problem in not having a specific muscular agenda for the second term. So what they hope is that there will be some of these fiscal ends will be tied up. That the Affordable Care act will start to look more like a suck suss which almost certainly would. Doesnt look like there will be imgragt. Youll hear people argue maybe it can get done in 2015, we think its more likely to be done in 2017. The president s legacy is going to be very much about the first term. Rose i wonder though when they look at that whether he should have bought into the grand bargain at that time. He tried buying into the grand bargain. all talking at once sglchld well, folks would like thief moment back. But i would only take issue slightly with mike in that i think president had a muscular agenda, the problem is you cannot get anything done on capitol hill. The last Congress Passed half as many laws as any Previous Congress in modern history. This one is on track to pass fewer. But hed love to get immigration and dun control done and i think hed love thief moment back and get fiscal reform done. He has plenty of things he wants to. Do you can say he cant get it done rose the point is whether all these oh things have taken all the air of the activity for the next remainder of this term. Jonathan . Thats the challenge is that here we are, its pretty much midoctober this was going to be the time where the house maybe got immigration, instead well be wrestling with this debt ceiling issue until thanksgiving. That gets you to the holidays and then you mere in 2014, charlie, and thats the midterm campaign. For my money, this president s second term is going to rise and fall on what happens in the Midterm Election next year. If the republican brand is so damaged that democrats can overcommagerry manering, find a way to take back the house, keep the senate, and if thats the case, president obama will have a final two year period or at least the final year and a half to maybe get immigration done, perhaps Climate Change and perhaps guns. Rose thats what hes hoping for, a strong win in the 2014 elections. Absolutely. Look at the calendar. Very soon here were going to be at the first of the year and as you guys know its tough to get anything done on the hill in not election years let alone election years. Jonathan, just a couple weeks ago you and i would have said it was impossible for democrats to take the house. Where are you on that now . I think their prospects have definitely gotten better given the republican for global brand. I think its still an uphill fight for democrats because of how those are drawn but i think it looks better now than a month ago. Rose let me finally tern to you on janet yellen and what that means about any changes in the fed and its policy toward Interest Rates and the economy. Janet yellen has been part of the fed on and off for several decades ahead of the San Francisco fed, vice chairman of the Federal Reserve board as a whole. Shes voted every single time with ben bernanke and in favor of his policies. There is certainly going to be nuances of differences between how she thinks about life and how bernanke thinks about life. People think she may be more dovish, a little more worried about unemployment and less worried about inflation. I think these changes will be very much at the margin. I think youre going to continue to see the fed operate very much as it has. One thing that may be different is she may be bernanke tried