Advances in technology called the innovators how a group of hackers, geniuses, and geeks created the digital revolution. Let me show you what bill gates and steve jobs did and how the bell labs system led to something. I wanted to look in a storytelling. This is a narrative book. Its storytelling. Its not, you know, 12 easy lessons of innovation. Because i wanted to do real reporting and say how did they make that a Creative Leap and do it as a team but who is the visionary that made the leap, because you need a visionary and a team. Its more about a book about real extreme who actually do it. Charlie ian bremmer, Walter Isaacson when we continue. And by bloomberg. A provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Charlie ian bremmer is here, president of Eurasia Group at Political Risk research and consulting firm, has written an article in Fortune Magazine under new headlines new cold war on business, looks for climate of western businesses in russia and china. Crises continue to cascade in other parts of the world. I. S. I. S. Threatens kobani, Nuclear Negotiations with iran stalled, and ebola continues to spread. Am pleased to have ian bremmer back at this table. Well come. Thank you, charlie. Charlie turkey, a place you know really well. Turkeys inaction on i. S. I. S. Dismays the wall street journal. U. S. And turkey at odds as militants advance. Most people i. S. I. S. Will take kobani. They do. They havthey can see the flag. The turks have been on the wrong side of all the conflicts and now its going to be hard for them to get to a place where they can line up with the americans in the coalition. Thats kind of where we are now. Charlie so why . Just because of the fear of kurdish radicals on the syrian side . Is that it . There were big demonstrations internally in turkey yesterday. Looks like almost 20 dead. And the kurds very unhappy with the lack of turkish action. You know erdogan better than most. Hes not going to react to street violence and then say, okay, now im going to do it. If anything, thats made it harder. Secondarily, he doesnt want to be actively having his troops fighting against i. S. I. S. Hes not been supporting i. S. I. S. But hes not exactly been a strong opponent. Hes wanted assad to go, and i. S. I. S. Has been relatively useful in that regard. Certainly much more so than the ineffectual syrian rebels. Charlie he got the Vice President to apologize for saying that he had supported radical groups like i. S. I. S. Or i. S. I. S. In syria. A lot of people are getting the Vice President to apologize. Thats certainly true. Biden says things occasionally that are intemperate but you and i around this table understand have a whiff of truth. Its not as if the turks were saying, here, i. S. I. S. , heres money, but what biden said is the turks could have done nor to close their border and im sure thats true. Charlie i asked him that, too, everybody believes you havent closed that border, and his answer was we havent closed our border with mexico either. Sounds like he shouldnt be getting an apology, then, from biden. Charlie were the turks supporting i. S. I. S. . I think theres a difference between how far youre willing to go against them and how far you find them useful and tolerant in a proxy war thats going on. Charlie that sounds like syria to me. It does sound like syria and you hear from the pentagon today that the United States, the military brass does not believe that we have any credible partners on the ground in sir. I cant that is a very serious problem given that i. S. I. S. Doesnt really care, you know, sort of charlie no credible partners on the ground . Not thats capable. Charlie thats what the president believed and why the president keeps insisting that if he had injected weapons in two years ago, everybody thinks they would have made a huge difference. He continues not to think so, because there were no credible partners on the ground. So you agree with the president . I do. I have been critical of the president on russian policy, as you know, but on i. S. I. S. , i think the president has done a decent job. Everyone says he doesnt have a strategy. If you want to get a Team Together the americans arent leading, behooves you not to have a strategy till you talk to the teammates. Thats actually useful. Ive spoken to a bunch of Foreign Ministers and they believe the u. S. Has been more effective multilaterally than before. The operation doesnt have a name, like enduring freedom. Thats great for American Flag waiving, but if you want it to be international, you probably dont want a name that doesnt include everyone in the region. You need to know what youre going to do after you win. The fighting on the ground is doing by many of the people in iraq the americans arent ready to work with. Charlie what does this mean for the advancement of i. S. I. S. . If you cannot find a significant force on the ground, especially p syria . This add vansment is in syria. Thats right. Charlie theyre opening up a route to aleppo, arent they . H. The fact that the United States is not out in the lead with the strategy, boots on the ground, means its going to take a hell of a lot longer even to contain i. S. I. S. , never mind to ever functionally destroy them. Thats certainly true. At the same time, principal challenges being posed to i. S. I. S. Are not to the United States. Theyre countries in the region and the europeans. If you have the countries most affected not prepared to take a broader role, that tells you how important it is to them. Charlie it tells you its not important to them. Its not urgent, its not a crisis. Charlie do you think its a crisis, the advancement of i. S. I. S. And offering possibly a safe haven to significant groups of terror . I think its a sufficient crisis that the United States is right to be working to contain them. I dont think its a sufficient crisis that the u. S. Should be putting troops on the ground because i dont think its sustainable. Charlie you dont think troops on the ground will do the job, combined with american air power and air power from other countries . No, thats not my point. Charlie okay. I do they they would do the job but not maintain support from the United States, which well get criticism internationally. You need comfelicity. Cooperation is easy going up. What happens when it starts to go wrong, when the civilians start dying and you lose a couple of battles . Then the fact the saudis have an air force involved, its not theyre being so helpful to the americans, but their governments cant say were doing things wrong because theyre complicit. Charlie we need for the world to know its not just the u. S. Versus muslims. Exactly. I think its a big win for the u. S. , obama and kerry to actually have some of the gulf states flying right was there because it means if this war is going to go on for years, and it probably l then most to have the countries that are relevant around us will be forced to support the u. S. Wosition. Charlie how serious do you think it is, the threat of i. S. I. S. . I believe that i. S. I. S. Is the bestfunded, most wellarmed terrorist organization in the history of the world. I believe that. So its clearly a very big threat. But i also think that theyre very bad strategically. They have institutionalized themselves. They have territory, theyve declared a state. They have to in some way proximally govern it. That requires a hell of a lot of attention and resources to be devoted to that territory, something terrorist organizations should never want to do. When they took the dam at mosul, right, they didnt mine it and say, u. S. , if you hit us, were going to blow it up. They didnt do that, thank god. We removed them quickly. Didnt think that through. Charlie what do you mean, didnt think that through . Maybe they should have waited till they could have done something. People said the dam would fall apart by itself if it wasnt fixed in weeks. If youre i. S. I. S. Leadership, isnt that important . The fact the kurds took more territory and stuck themselves we mow the peshmerga has the best fighting force in iraq and overextended themselves. Theyre clearly fighters that are willing to fight and they have a lot of american material and ammunition, but strategically, thus far, they have been making a lot of mistakes and, ultimately, given that this is going to be a long war, that is to our benefit. Charlie is it a immediate threat to us . How would you measure it other than their Training Ground for jihaddests who have american passports and can come back and perhaps wreak havoc in a small way . I hate to see this kind of brand that has the ability to get lots of people excited about violence, radicalism against the west. You never want to see that because a whole bunch of lunatics in other countries irrespective of having any connection to i. S. I. S. Or not are going to take advantage of that. Were it not for i. S. I. S. , would some wacko in oolahoma decapitate a coworker . I doubt it, frankly, right . So that does affect the United States, and theres no question that americans have gotten incredibly concerned about this and it affects our travel patterns and our willingness to spend charlie can it affect the order in the middle east . Can it threaten our friends . I think the single thing that it has the greatest impact on in the near term is it makes the Iran Nuclear Deal much less likely to happen, because we have realigned ourselves with the saudis and were fighting together with the sunni arab monarchies. It is our top priority now is i. S. I. S. , its not getting an iran deal. Irans top priority is i. S. I. S. , not getting a nuclear deal with the u. S. We only have five or six weeks left to get the deal done. Everything ive seen on the ground in iran is are yo rue r k anyone smart in iran now is saying they dont think the deal is going to happen, you have to prep to get the thing done. I dont think the will is there. Charlie does it ruin their chances in terms of getting a Nuclear Weapon . They have the breakout capabilities. Charlie . Charlie what is breakout capabilities . Developing a Nuclear Weapon without consequence of strikes. Breakout capability means, beyond this point, they dont have a Nuclear Weapon but you cant functionally stop them. Charlie so they could have one if they wanted in a matter of weeks . Im not inside the intelligence. Ive heard Different Things from the israelis, the americans. Its months, not years. Charlie within months . I believe thats true. Charlie and you believe the president of the United States would strike if he believed they were soon to have a Nuclear Weapon . I think there would be a discussion inside the white house. Charlie do we do this or not . I think its hard to imagine the americans would engage in preemptive strikes to stop the iranis from having a weapon. I do. There are lots of difficult questions like that. I mean, what would happen if there were proximally russians supporting their brethren in estonia and it got violent but werent troops that actually went in from russia, would the United States intervene to support estonia . I dont think there would be a discussion. Charlie that would be n. A. T. O. , wouldnt it . The americans will be making the decision, not the germans. If you ask will the israelis strike if they know the americans wont, its clearly a closer call, but i dont think they will. I dont think they will. Charlie even if they know the americans wont . I dont believe so, no. I think its very important for the israelis to make us believe that that is absolutely what is coming, but that has nothing to do with what they actually do, thats just the diplomacy. Charlie they wouldnt do it because . I think the knockon effects for israel would be significant. Iran has a real military. I think that israel, they say its an extensional step. Their slappings with the west would be very seriously damaged. There would be massive calls for boycotts among key european states, for example. I mean, its not as if israel is replete with international charlie so they dont want to do it . I dont think they do. If you ask me is it bad for iran to have Nuclear Weapons, of course the answer is yes. Im not sure if im worried more about that than pakistan or north korea. There are a lot of things we say charlie is it more reasonable . Not that theyre more reasonable. I guess i think they have slightly more capability of Holding Together as a state and maintaining control. Charlie theyre within six weeks, say, breakout capability, producing enough nuclear fuel to have a Nuclear Weapon. , if in fact, they are at that point and getting closer, its unlikely that the israelis would do it. Right. Charlie its unlikely the United States will take it out. I think thats true. Charlie so therefore the iranians will have a Nuclear Capacity. Theres no other way. If the deal falls apart, iran will have Nuclear Capacity in relatively short order. I think thats probably true. Charlie what do you think is saudis will do at that moment . I think the saudis have been supporting a plutonium project, in pakistan. So if they need to have nukes, they have theres a very big difference between the iranians having Nuclear Capacity and actually developing and or testing a Nuclear Weapon. Like so many things weve seen in so many conflicts in this world, where you decide to draw or not draw that line allows war and peace. Charlie i can ask a better question. Yes, i bet you can. laughter charlie what if, in fact, they do have a Nuclear Weapon . What if they tested and have it. Do you believe the u. S. Will strike then . If they have to, the answer is clearly no because the rabbit is out of the hat. Then the saudis have to react and that sets retaliatory, escalatatory steps. Charlie if i was sitting in iran, i believe the iranians could safely say we could have a nuclear bomb if we wanted. I feel confident the iranians dont need to be listening to me to have that understanding of the white house right now, first of all. Charlie the iranians know that the president would not strike . I think they feel cold frontful the americans would not strike preemptively. Charlie does the pentagon . The pentagons belief is that the white house has been very reluctant to provide them with options and levers to use force or to threaten to use force. They absolutely believe that, almost across the board they believe that. Charlie the pentagon believes the white house is reluctant to give them instructions to have military option . Option that. Optionality. Why would you preemptively take the option of boots on the ground off the table . If china has problems with a country, they dont say, by the way, no matter what, tanks are not going to roll. Ive never heard a chinese leader say that. Have you . Not Even Congress hong. Certainly not hong kong. In hong kong, the chinese negotiation says that charlie i think theyve handled it well. They have massive support in Mainland China in the last couple of hours, i heard the hong kong chief executive, apparently news hes taken money from australian organizations might be illegal and the timing of hat is very interesting. Maybe the chinese want to find a way to get rid of this guy. Charlie im not even sure they know what that means. Talking about that region, on cbs this morning as we taped this on wednesday afternoon that the leader of north korea has not been seen. For a couple of months now. Charlie yeah. Where do we think he is and why do we think hes missing . Give me a scenario. A likelihood. You know its a bad week in geopolitics when the best news you have is from north korea. Charlie im not sure its good news. I think it is. Usually uncertainty is bad news in north korea, youre right. But in this case, at the same time hes not been heard from, and the official north korean media, which we should put great stock in, as you know, that he is experiencing discomfort. I dont know about you, but i would not want to experience discomfort in north korea. That sounds like a bad place to experience discomfort. laughter charlie is that what theyre saying . Hes experiencing discomfort . Yes. I love the vagueness of that. There are so many ways to experience discomfort. Charlie its dark and cold in his cell. Its possible. laughter but the leadership of north korea outside the military leadership went to south korea for the closing ceremonies of the asiapacific games last week, and not only were extremely solicitous of wanting to engage with the South Koreans but set a date to get the countries to start negotiations. Now, i have to say, in any condition, if kim jongun is out, the worst thing that could happen is lots of internal fighting and maybe the place implodes. You couldnt do that south Korean Mission in that case. The first case, the military leaders wouldnt leave the country. The worst thing to do is leave the country when that happens. So id say either kim jongun is out and the transition is handled and solid, which is good, or hes still in, actually is experiencing some mild heartburn, and he wants to show everyone hes still in charge so hes continuing and making a bold move. But either way charlie whats the bold move . Sending this big delegation to south korea. Thats the biggest opening weve seen between the countries in years, at the same time he hasnt been heard from. Charlie how long will we take to find out . How long do you think . They might never tell us. Its north korea. Charlie w