But we are the the single country that has the ability to mobilize and move others more than any other country. Rose tony blinken for the hour, next. Funding for charlie rose is provided by the following . From our stud yos in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose an american based ceasefire in syria is set to take place on friday, there has been little signs of hostilities abating let alone seizing. The state department acknowledged yesterday that world powers have yet to even meet to negotiate the details of the ceasefire. The agreement announced last friday in munich calls for humanitarian aid to be delivered to beseiged syrian towns but on tuesday the state department could not confirm that any of it had reached its intended recipients. Joining me is tony blinken, the United States deputy secretary of state, blinken glan his service at the state department in 1993 where he served in the clinton administration. I am pleased to have him here at this table for the first time. Welcome. Thanks, charlie, good to be here. Rose let me start in a broader sense, we want to cover a lot in this conversation. But right now doing something about all those people who are starving and suffering and getting some aid so them is a high priority for everybody. Its on the top of our agenda and the top of a lot of other agendas. But here is what is happening. Last week we reached an agreement on two things, one, getting to a sesation of hostilities and we are working on that and hope to see it start in a couple of days and the other is to start humanitarian assistance flowing to beseejed communities in syria. As of today, this morning, trucks began to move out of damascus to some of these communities including areas arounding. Are they reaching. The reports are they are starting to reach the communities. Now weve began weve seen this over the last five or suks years, there have been repeated calls for humanitarian access. U. N. Resolution after reslation and it hasnt happened so i dont want to make too much of it. If it is just one truck, one time, it doesnt do the trickment but at least its a start. So we are actually seeing that part of the agreement move forward it has to be takenned steand the cessation saition of hostilities, the ball is in russias court. Rose let me come back to that, i want to stay with the humanitarian aid for a second. Has assad said is he in favor of this and allow this. I understand words are one thing and deeds are another. He has allowed the first trucks, about a hundred trucks were packed up in damascus, sent out today. He allowed that to happen. And theyre getting to about a half dozen communities that have been under seige for quite some time. Postally in the areas surrounding damascus, so that has happened and is happening as we speak. But its not enough to do it once. You have to keep doing it am you have to keep the relief going. Rose what are they saying . So in the first instance they said were going along with what was agreed last week. I think in at least that instance the russians have played a helpful role. Rose the ceasefire. Ceasefire, the jury is out. Its complicated. But whats not complicated is this. The russians have to make a decision. They have to make a choice. They can impose on assad his participation in this cessation of hostilities, unfortunately what weve seen at least between the time the agreement was reached and today is instead of taking the foot off the accelerator the regime and russians seem to have put the foot on the accelerator. Rose is that to gain territory if there might be a ceasefire. It may be that they are trying to get the best possible position they can get before there is a cessation of hostilities. But what i think russia has to recognize and this really goes to the heart of it, is that they can continue to do this. They can continue to help assad brutalize his own population. They can continue to win some territory back. But as the president said yesterday, that doesnt change the fact that three quarters of syria is under control of someone other than bash ar alassad. He is not going to regain that territory. In other words, russia and assad, they can maybe not lose but they also cant win. They cant get the country back. The sooner russia recognizes that, the sooner it realizes that if it keeps going in this direction, it is going to be stuck trying to protect assad and spending billions be billions of dollars to do that, putting more and more lives in jeopardy, probably to end up at best with a run state. Rose is that why the secretary of state said to me last night even though the russians have done much to prop up assad and he has regained territory and it looks good for him now and hes in a stronger negotiating position, in the end this is bad for russia because of the reasons you laid out. I think ash carter is exactly right. Think of it this way. Rose but the president said this from the beginning. He has. Because what we saw is that russia was helping to prop up a sead assad from the beginning along with iran and hezbollah am then when they thought that assad actually risked collapsing, they came in heavier and harder and intervened much more directly. But not out from a position of strength but out of weakness because they feared if their foothold in the middle east, syria and assads syria was on the verge of difs appearing. They have a stake in man taining that foothold. But the cost is huge because again in order to do that, in order to keep him going, theyre going to have to be all in. The syrian military, they can take ground but then they cant hold it. They dont have enough man power. Morale is a problem, salaries are a problem. The iranians all signs indicate have in some cases actually started to draw back some of their forces because too many are getting killed on the battle field. The russians will be left holding the bag because someone has to occupy and hold the territory they take. Rose so the people losing their lives will become russians. That is a distinct possibility. Here is another problem. Rose do you guys believe that, that the russians in the end may be forced to have russian boots on the ground in syria . They already have the boos on the ground. Rose fighting the war, not from. If it continues in this direction, that is if we dont move to a political transition, a transition that the russians themselves have signed up for, then if theyre going to keep prosecuting this, here is what is going to happen. The opposition is not going to give up. They have suffered grieve outsidely over the last five years, this he have taken incredible punishment. They are not about to quit. Their patrons on the outside are not about to quit. What we tried to do is disswaid the patrons from supplying and putting in resources to the most extreme groups t is not in our interest, not in anyones interest. Rose have they agreed to that. Has saudi arabia and the em ralts agreed not to support some groups they might have supported because they were in opposition to assad. It has been episodic there have been periods of time when they have and then they tamped down on it. But here is what happens f this continues, that is if the russians it be to get behind assad in prosecuting an offensive against the opposition, and an indiscriminate one at that, then i think any of the checks and balances on the patrons in terms of supporting extremist groups will be off. They will throw in whatever they can to whoever has the best chance of taking on assad. And what moderate opposition mpelled to throw in their lot with more extreme groups. That is a recipe for a quagmire, that is a recipe for russia being in this as far as the eye can see. Here is another factor. They risk alienating the large bullk of the muslim world that is sunni. They are seen as being in a league with assad, with hezbollah and iran against sunni muslims. 15 of their population is muslim t is almost all sunni. Theyve got central asia, the caucuses, the balance cans, all there is they care about, with large sunni muslim populations, if this goes on, they risk that. For all those reasons we believe that russia has a real interest in helping to drive this to a negotiated political transition. Rose evidently there was some interest in doing that because didnt they send one of their enjoys to see assad. They talked to him repeatedly. Rose and asked him to be listening to that pont . Yeah. Rose and assad says no. Well, i think they made some progress. For example the humanitarian assistance we talked about earlier, that seems to be product of russia telling assad he needed to do it, that is a good thing, it needs to continue. But what is even more critical now is getting the sesation of hostilities and then that allows an environment in which negotiations can begin toward a political transition. My point is that the russians have argued with assad, you need to be engaged in political negotiations that will lead to some kind of transition government. Thats right. Rose which may include you or not. Thats right. Rose now the United States i assume and the, all of the other sunni countries are basically saying assad has to go. And were not interested in a transition government that includes him. Well, the Syrian People i think have largely said assad has to go. He for fitted his legitimacy. Rose let me stay with the notion of Russian Troops on the ground. When you said yes, they are. They have advisors. Rose like we do. Yes. But weve also seen some russians lose their lines on the front lines. Rose because they are advising or fighting well, in some cases they are fighting. In fact, what weve actually seen in some places, interestingly, is not even the syrian military, not even the syrian Army Fighting but iranians, hezbollah with russian air power actually prosecuting some of these battles am i think what really happened is this, charlie. When russia went all in with assad it did two things. It increased russias leverage over assad. He really owes them am but it also increased the leverage of the conflict over russia. It has much more to lose if it winds up in an ongoing, per pet all conflict that it has to keep putting more and more resources. Rose and putin has a worsening Economic Situation at home. Exactly, precisely. Rose do you have any indication. Does labroth say to kerry or to you, we have to figure a way out of this, we realize it is not in the end all that great for us. So they told us that they want to move toward a political transition, indeed, at the end of the last year when we got this agreement among all of the major countries, for the first time, russia, iran, the saudis, the turks, us, other countries, everyone agreed on the need for political transition. We agreed that there would be a time table, that negotiation was start in january. That we would get after six months to a new more inclusive represented government and then elections in 18 months. So the russian here is the problem. The russians signed on to that. But what they sign on a piece of paper and what they do on the ground may be two different things. That is what we are looking at. Rose is this under the u. N. Sponsorship. Yes. Doing an amazing john under incredibly difficult circumstances, is he responsible for trying to facilitate the negotiations themselves. Rose will you right now they are on hold until later february 25th with were looking to bring them back around february 25th. That is why getting the humanitarian assistance flowing is important. Why the sesation of hostile tillities is important it also creates an environment in which negotiations have a chance. Rose a couple of points of the cessation of hostiles, as the secretary of state made clear this does not include all attacks against isis. Thats correct. Op and isis is not going too stop their ceasefire, that conflict will continue. Thats right. We want everyone to focus on the one common challenge that we all have, including russia. Including iran, and that is isis or daesh. If we can get the reason ending the civil war is so important, obviously its vitally important just on a sheer humanitarian level. This has been one of the most horrific. Rose 260,000 people and 4 million refugees. That is something we should talk about toorksz the refugees because that is a whole other dilemma. But there is literally one of the worst crises that weve seen on that level. But second, two other things. One of course the spillover affect is increasingly dramatic. We see it not only in the neighboring countries of turkey, lebanon, jordan but increasingly in europe with the refugees. And this dagger at the heart of european cohetion is something that is of growing concern to our european partners. Rose and to us. And to us, absolutely. But the third piece is this. We are succeeding against daesh. And we can talk about that. But we are pushing them back effectively in iraq. Weve taken 40 of the territory that they held a year ago and even in syria, they are on their heels, not on their toes. Rose when will we retake mosul. That is something we are focused on but we want to do it when were ready, when the iraqis ared are, when the time is right. But meanwhile were squeezing, cutting off the lines of communication, making it harder for them to move back and forth, pov between raque an mosul, move things into mosul. But even as we succeed on the ground against daesh, we will not have a sustainable success unless we also end the civil war in syria. Because as long as assad is there, he is the number one recruiting tool for assad. The reason foreign fighters are trying to get into syria to fight with daesh is because of assad. That is another reason we have to get this political transition. Rose assad is the main recruiting tool for isis. For daesh, exactly. Rose if you retake mosul, that will have a Significant Impact in terms of what happens in syria . It will happen. Rose in addition to the more important point, assad. So what is so porn about mosul but also raqqa and syria, they are two bases, the heart of the selfdeclared caliphate is this. One of the reasons that daesh succeeds or has succeeded up until now is by creating the perception that it has forged this caliphate, this homebase, that it is marching forward, that its ten feet tall. If you take away that foundation, the entire ed i face will begin to crumble. Foreign fighters will be less attractive. Affiliates that are usually preexisting terrorist organizations, the money will slow down and everything will start to crumble. That is why getting at their core is so porntd. Rose okay, so what are we prepared to do . Before you answer that, who is it were supporting there . And who are these rebel groups . And are they the same rebel groups we were making decisions about supporting in 2011 . Or are they new groups . And how many are there . And how united are they. We used to talk about something called the free syrian army. Who is it that we are supporting . And how strong are they . We have worked over the last almost four years in trying to identify, engage and support. Rose coordinate. Also help coordinate, absolutely. So called moderate opposition. People who were opposed to the regime, who wanted to change their country, but did not sign on to an extremist ideology. And the numbers are significant. You look at the assessments that have been done by the cia, by the state department, by others, we are talking all told tens of thousands who are on the moderate opposition side. Then youve got other thousands who are part of more extreme groups who are part of groups like nousra, here is the challenge though. When the moderate groups are getting squeezed and getting brutalized. Rose by assad regime. By the assad regime. Rose with the help of the russians. With the help of the russians. Rose so the russians are in fact daley trying to wipe out the people we are supporting. In several places that is exactly what they are doing. Rose we have no power over russia to say dont do that because we are supporting them. By supporting assad you are destroying the people we support. They make an argument in some places, some groups are so intermingled, moderate opposition an nousra are so intermingled that they are hitting nousra, for example. Rose trying to hit nousra so therefore they hit moderatesness that is what they claim. Rose they are says moderates are Collateral Damage to what they are trying to do. That is what they claim. But its very easy to point to places on the map in syria where there is no nousra, there is no daesh, there is just moderate opposition. And theyre hitting those places because it is a threat to the regime. Rose where does this come down, their promise to attack isil as one of the reasons they were coming in. Yeah. Rose to prop up as putin said to me, to make no doubt about t he said, were coming in because we believe in a strong government and we believe its essential to syria and yes we are as coming up to prop up a guy that we think represents the only strong Central Authority there now. Everybody could disagree about that. But what i dont understand is how much and how significant if any are their attacks on isil . As a proportion of the campaign that they have been engaged in, 20 , 30 . Rose so 20 of what the air strikes go goans isil. At best. Rose so when you say to them why dont you do more, what do they say . So they continue to claim that in fact they are striking isil, there is a disagreement over who she are streuking, we are clear we know where isil is and isnt. They also say were striking nousra, in some cases that is true. But what we are seeing is that the big focus of their campaign to date has simply been protecting bash ar alassad and his reg evening. Whoever is threatening the regime whether the moderate opposition or extreme opposition or daesh, that is who they will go against. Rose and theyll do that until there is another alternative government that represents some sense of a strong central force. Yeah, look. In fairness to the russians, theyve had an argument that has been, look, the devil that we know. Assad. We dont know what comes after. You condition tell us what is going to come after. Rose exhibit a is libya, if exhibit a for them. True. But what we worked very hard to do and what our partners including the saudis who did a very good job worked very hard to do is to bring the moderate opposition together. To make them work together. To come up with a coherent program and agenda and that is exactly what they have done. They are broadly representative of a large swath of the Syrian People. So there is something there. To work with. There is something there that can succeed. The other thing that is critical is this. We have been clear with the russians and everyone else, we dont want to repeat one of the mistakes of iraq and that was disbanding the institutions of government. Because then you have a vacuum and its usually filled with bad things. Rose so we share that with them, they share that idea with us. Absolutely. So the bullk of the army, the police, the bureaucracy, the government, all of that would remain in tact so there would not be a vacuum. The question is really making sure there is a transition from that top layer. Rose how do you get around this question that all the sunni countries who you would