Yes, shes controversial but shes a breakout within this Television News orbit, but to see her leave and go to nbc, which weco gezezxdco noai[oa a bombshell today and says a lot about where tv is now. Rose we conclude withn9 . C an interview i did with megyn kelly in november of 2017. When i sit ate the anchor k and look into the lens, i honestly feel like i can see you out there, i am, i think, in some ways the best version of myself. It feels like a real connection and itsniieqo invigorating, i] given that and my love for my colleagues, leaving fox news would be very tough, but there happen to be people i love even more than my colleagues, and they must be factored in as well. Rose ian bremmer, Brian Stelter and an interview with megyn kelly, when we continue. Rose funding for charlie rose has been provided by the following and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose ian bremmer is here. He is the president of the Political RiskConsulting Firm eurasia group. Every year the firm publishes a list of top global Political Risks. It released this years report this morning, it is called top risk 2017, the geopolitical recession. I am pleased to have ian bremmer back at this table. Welcome. Good evening to you, charlie. Happy new year. Rose i dont know if its happy or not. You talk about a global recession as you begin talking about risks. Were here. Thats already half the battle. You and i have been doing this a bunch of years, now, and i had the firm 20 years ago, weve never seen a geopolitical environment this unstable as the one were now entering into in 2017. You have economic recessions every seven or eight years, since world war ii. Geopolitical recessions dont happen as often, but now the end of this old order and the United States saying, look, we dont want, not just to be the cop for the world, which has been coming for a long time, but were not going to be the architect on trade. Were not going to promote our values globally. No one else is prepared to do that. The election of trump, the United States is now the driver of Geopolitical Uncertainty in the world stage, and thats a new thing. Thats not something we have been dealing with. Rose lets break down geopolitical recession. It means what, specifically . You outlined some suggestions. The u. S. Is not playing the roll it has played before, or at least if you believe the president elect doesnt plan to play that role because voters dont seem to want it to play that role. I think thats right. I think its a combination of both. Voters have been less happy, less enthused with the idea of america taking lots of burdens on that its allies want or multilateral institutions want for some time now. Erywhere but here. Ilding exactly, and trump, i think, played that very well domestically, when hillary clinton, frankly, did not. Globalist was a dirty word, and at the Republican National convention when he got the nomination, he used that extremely effectively. It speaks well to the average american. But its not just the United States, of course. We talk about geopolitical recession, we recognize americas allies in europe are weak and fragmented, facing enormous internal challenges. We recognize that the middle east is in disarray, that asia has stronger leaders. China, of course, is a much more willing to provide leadership economically that challenges u. S. Architecture and norms and values, but in no other way. The russians are willing to do that in terms of security, but in no other way. You put all those things together, then you elect president trump, come january 20th, i think we can say americana is over and we enter this geopolitical recession. Whats interesting about it is its not going to be an enormous challenge for the United States at home. The Global Economy recession in 2008 affected everyone globally. Geopolitically, while europe bleeds and an arms race in asia and territorial disputes in lots of the world, here in the United States we dont have a problem. Rose president obama has said to me and the others, when i am around the world, they want america to lead. Is that no longer true, or is it that america doesnt want to lead . Look, its true, and its good that obama has come to recognize that, after eight years of the presidency, because, of course, a lot of those same leaders would say, look, to obama, and say, you have not been leading, sir. Rose is that only having to do with war in the middle east, or does it have to do with Global Economic leadership . It has to do clearly with Global Economic leadership, and there was a period of time after the 2008 recession when the chinese suddenly said how the american model doesnt work anymore, we should move away from it. Rose we dont want that to be anymore. Exactly. But more than that, its also about American Values. I mean, and you go and talk to leaders in asia who desperately say they want the United States, and part of that is they believe that the United States created these multilateral institutions, like the u. N. , like the i. N. F. , like the world bank, they want the americans upholding the standards, the americans and allies and, you know, trump saying i would much rather work with putin whos a strong man who can get it done, and the values inside that country doesnt necessarily matter, that is unnerving to american allies. Thats hard to put your finger on it, the soft power, leading but example, but its important. Rose is he different than a lot of other american leaders . They didnt ask those questions when they were making Nuclear Agreements, they didnt ask about what are you doing about this Minority Group in your country or this other Minority Group. They said, how can we make a Nuclear Agreement thats in both or National Interests . They werent stressing American Values, they were stressing americas security. And kissinger, of course, is sort of one extreme side of that. You could argue jimmy carter is perhaps the other. Rose hes more like kissinger than jimmy carter. Thats true, but america still has been promoting, for example, a free media. America has been promoting free markets globally. Rose rule of law. Ule of law. And i think we can make pretty clear that trumps inclinations are that the american presidency has been diminished because american cooperations are not acting in a patriotic panner and America Media is not acting in a patriotic manner. And he thinks america would have a stronger negotiating position if they were and thats an interesting change. Rose in china, isnt there more respect than certainly was ten years ago for copyright protection, those kinds of things . Yes. Rose they have gradually moved to accept answer tans of those kinds of things. Right. Rose those American Values. Absolutely. And American Values that became global values. Rose still cares about those values, i assume. A businessman needs predictability and expectation that contracts will be honored in order to do business. The importance of honoring contracts, i think, is something thats going to be an interesting question to watch under a Trump Administration. I dont know if you want to go there. Rose no, i do want to go there. Clearly, conflicts of interest are going to be big. Under trump, you are going to have to start covering the United States analytically a little more like south korea, where on the one hand, not like russia or china, but where on the one hand you have all the official interests of the u. S. And the cabinet and what theyre saying politically, and then you have the trump organization, informing kitchen cabinet, where are the business interests, how do those things align and what does a phone call with the taiwanees have to do that in addition to other policy interests . Historically, we havent had to do that kind of analysis in the u. S. You do that in a lot of countries around the world. Thats going to be interesting and complicated if you are an American Corporation or a Foreign Government trying to figure out what the best way so to work with this new president. Rose do you think the Obama Presidency in World Affairs was a successful presidency . No. Rose no . No, and it really saddens me to say that, because this is a guy who clearly wanted the best, right . You have to argue, you look at the way hes comported himself in the presidency, you look at the values that he has lived up to himself, the way he has tried to lead by example with his family, friends, with his white house. You want this guy to be able to succeed, and yet, when you look at the obama administrations Balance Sheet internationally, where they have succeeded and where they have failed, theyve got this limited iran deal in their favor, theyve got a cuba opening that was way overdue, youve got some good symbolism with hiroshima and pearl harbor in japan, but aside from that the transatlantic relationship is as . ; bad its been since wod war two, the russia view is abject despite its hard the to criticize trump on the hacks precisely because obama has been so ineffectual at dealing with the russianons a bunch of issues. Rose why is that . Why has he been ineffectual . Rose mmhmm. Well, look, i think, on the one hand, he wants to talk the strong principles and values, but there needs to be a recognition that if you dont actually care that much or if your allies really arent going to be with you, you cant necessarily accomplish the things you want. I think obamas had an administration where he thinks hes on the 20yardline, ready to kick the field goal. You recognize you have been pushed back to the 25, 35, 45, 50, at some point you have to kick a punt for the long time. Rose where are the cases where the europeans was not with obama or obama was not with them . Certainly look at syria. Rose except syria. Ukraine. Rose no, in terms of dealing with russia. Id say on both of those. On ukraine, there is no question of the ability of the United States to get strong and firm measures against the russians and sanctions was like pulling teeth. The support from the europeans to actually help build ukraine as an economy to make them sustainable was virtually zero. Germany absolutely wasnt there. The desire of the europeans to work with russia on energy, of course, half of them were looking to ensure that, they were the ones who dk. Rose so was that a failure of obamas leadership . Its a failure of obama to realize that if the constellations of interests you have to play with dont line up to getting the russians out of ukraine or making ukraine a functional independent country then you probably will have to change your policy. I think thats true on syria and in handling the hacks as well. I think obama made a big mistake in handling the hacks, to be honest with you. Rose in what way . In the sense that if he truly believed this was a threat to American National security and he said he does and that it was delegitimizing the u. S. Election, he said that was true as well, then you hit the russians hard and definitively when its going on, you dont tell them to cut it off. Rose sooner rather than later. He said the reason he didnt do it is because he didnt want to be perceived in the United States as being partisan and supporting hillary. I said, mr. President , with all due respect, i have a lot of respect for this man, you are the president , and perceptions of being perceived as partisan is a lot less important than ensuring the National Security of the country that you run. And thats not leadership. Rose i think he also feared a russian reaction would spiral into something before the election, too. He did fear that, and, yet, he was, as a consequence, unable to respond to a clear and direct threat to an American Institution that we all hold as incredibly important. Rose when president elect trump talks about putin, what is it you think is at heart in that relationship . Or the core . So we can focus there are a lot of things we can focus on first. Easy to score points. If youre trying to put points on the board, easy for trump to say, look, barack says assad must go. We know thats foolish. Hes still there. sj workxd withx now, there is also the issue that trump does not support american exceptionalism, and this is a real bane for putin as well. So the idea that there is a transactional Foreign Policy that occurs between two adults that are strong men that can do business together is one thats attractive to trump and putin. But when i add up all of that, that doesnt quite get me to the level, the effusive level of consistent support that America First trump seems to be promoting rose who doesnt believe in american exceptionalism, you said . Trump clearly has said we should not be promoting american democracy and trying to export it abroad. He says we look like hypocrites and it doesnt do us any good rose other people have said that. Thats not a unique position to donaldcocow3 trump. A lot of people have said, look, untry and say they shouldo to a accept americas version of democracy. Right. Rose they have a different culture, system, evolution. You know, we cant, therefore, go in to, iraq, after it collapses and say were going to impose an american political system on you. True. Rose they wont accept it. But putin looks at obama, he looks at hi these are people who fundamentally believe that their system is better than mine and they are willing to try to de legitimize me as a consequence, he absolutely believes that, and sees trump as someone who will not do that. Rose what should have obama done other than simply retaliate in kind, which putin already believed they were doing . Yeah, i think there would have had to be strong responses that were, at the time, they werent just about sanctions, they would have had to include direct Cyber Attacks as well rose what would we have attacked and there was a seriesw3 of recommendations that were made to the president nr by c. I. A. , these are the options in front ofr them because he thought they were dangerous. c n and rose they might have been embarrassing to Vladimir Putin. Or could have frozen assets. Rose there is a lot we dont know. Theyre not tellingu everything they did in retaliation. You lookco at what theyre tellg us and what they did, one assumes there is some level of commensurateness with those two things. What they have done publicly is extremely weak teaxdn before trump comes in. R and pn can look magnanimous and say im not going to Pay Attention because youre irrelevant and ill work withnicocow3 my boy d. Rose 2016 was successful for putin. Yes. Rose he came ou out of syria as a power player. And a person who empowered Bashar Alassad who is now on the winning side, who is now eradicating rebel forces wherever he can find them, first in aleppo and now surrounding damascus. Assad must go, turns out obama must go, right . How many people would have expected that five years ago . Rose obama leave power, assad still in power applause of Vladimir Putin. Primarily because of Vladimir Putin. Rose and Vladimir Putin along with iran and turkey gets credit for theyre the ones putting an end to the war, theyre the ones coordinating the cease fire. There are few rebels to speak of at this point. Clearly i. S. I. S. Has had territory taken away from them and thats positive. But if you want to look at 2016, you want to see whos the man of the year. Its a guy running the economy not doing particularly well with an educational systemco falling apart, not a global power anymore. Putin with that hand has still been able to run circles around other countries. Rose and the largestco Nuclear Force in the world. Number one, u. S. Number two. Rose china, before i go to china, tell me where war is most likely to break out. This worries me, this isnt about the geopolitical recession concept, which is sitting across the table from you over the past years, if you had asked me, ian, do you think there is any real possibility of a serious war between major countries, i would have said nothing proximate. I look at 2017, and i can no longer say its impossible. I think its going to happen, but i think its possible. Rose where is it possible . I think it is possible that because of the profound lack of trust between the major countries in the world, accidents can escalate to a greater degree. So the possibility of an armed confrontation over north korea is now, i think, possible. Rose so lay out the scenario for an armed confrontation over north korea. So trump tweets today rose yes, its not going to happen, that theyre going to have longrange missiles that can deliver Nuclear Warheads to the continental america. In other words, trump, even before he becomes president decides hes going to set his own red line. Rose right. We know red lines have gotten us in trouble before, particularly over north korea and a bunch of administrations have b