And today Morgan Stanley said oil prices could plunge even further to 20 a barrel if the dollar continues to strengthen. And thats something capitals john kilduff said was possible about a year ago on nightly Business Report. Were in the beginning part of the price zone right now that hurts production in a big way and starts to reverberate through the economy, the manufacturing economy especially. It will be particularly painful if we do break the 40 level and then if we do break the 33 level, which is my low price target and we go down into the 20s. Then its going to be a real bleak situation. And john kilduff Founding Partner with again capital is back. Hes wearing his lucky shirt. Did you notice that . Its the same shirt he had on. He knew he was coming on. I take care of things, you know. John, where do you stand now . You correctly forecast where oil was going to go. Were at about 31 a barrel. Are we near the end of the cycle or not . Unfortunately, no. I think the low point now will be 18 a barrel. Because thats what its going to take to get a response from the Major Oil Producers that are part of this family of Oil Producers in the world. The russians, the saudis, iraqis, iranians, and even our u. S. Shale folks are not doing anything to cut back production. What theyre doing right now is scrambling to stay alive and try to outlast the other person, if you will. I thought u. S. Production was coming down. But i guess just not enough. Tyler, it came down from a high of 9. 6 Million Barrels to 9. 2 back in october. And even since then theres been a huge drop in the u. S. Rig count, and weve plateaued. Not a barrel of oil has come off the market since then. Even this past is december we thought wed see several hundred thousand barrels. Why not . Well, most of the companies have done amazing jobs in terms of being able to stay alive at 50, at 40, and even now at 35. The permian, the folks in texas still produce profitably. And believe it or not theres been some offshore projects long time in the making have come on line to offset some of the cutbacks. But what are the implicat for the u. S. Economy . Lower oil prices usually a boon to consumers. Usually a shot in the arm to the economy. But at what point does it then become deflationary, and are we looking at that scenario ahead for oil . Well, i believe thats still the case, that this is still overwhelmingly good for the u. S. Economy and the u. S. Consumer because this is 80 of our economy. No doubt that theres Discretionary Spending dollars available for all the other things in life here. Its bad for the u. S. Oil exploration and production industry, obviously, and those greatpaying jobs that go with that. But i dont and still dont think that its a big enough problem to take down the economy. And deflation is really something thats more of a problem for economists if you ask me than it is for the average consumer. Very quickly, when do we get close to that 18 a barrel bottom you that forecast . I think it will be more toward the late winter, early spring. U. S. Refiners go into maintenance to get ready to make the gasoline we need for the summer driving season. And thats going to cause crude oil to back up again in inventories and thats going to cause prices to really collapse finally and shake them out and really take a twobyfour to the worlds producers and say guys, weve got to do something here. All right, john. Good to see you as always. Same here. Thanks for joining us. John kilduff. Thank you. On wall street stocks may have finished higher for the day, but it was not easy getting there. The dow started with a tripledigit gain despite another steep loss overnight over in china. Concerns over that countrys Economic Growth prospects. Then stocks followed oils lead and headed lower. But right before the close there was some buying. And on this volatile day the Dow Jones Industrial average managed to gain 52 points. It finished at 16,398. Nasdaq dropped five. That means it has fallen every session so far this year. And the s p 500 added a single point. Small caps finished lower. The russell 2000, look at that, down four points. It is now in bear market territory, meaning the index has dropped 20 from its most recent intraday high. And now to earnings. Alcoa unofficially kicked off the season with results after the closing bell. The Company Reported record global aluminum demand and better than expected earnings of 4 cents a share. Revenue came in just a hair light at 5. 2 billion and were lower from a year ago. Investors liked what they saw because shares rose initially after the report. And in an interview ceo Claus Kleinfeld said overall business is strong. If you look at the quarter its been really a solid quarter. We have substantially grown our Aerospace Business. Our customers have seen it and positively responded. And weve seen a string of large contract overall in the last quarter, 4 billion of aerospace contracts. On the whole year 9 billion. Mary thompson has more now on alcoas quarter. Reporter well, after a difficult year marked by a steep decline in aluminum prices, ceo Klaus Kleinfeld sounding an optimistic note. He said that the price declines the company saw in 2015 are unlikely to happen again in 2016, and he is also encouraged by continued strong demand. In fact, alcoa is forecasting record demand for aluminum in 2016 and is expecting growth of 6 . He is also very optimistic about a fastgrowing area of his business. That being the Aerospace Business as well. As he pointed out, the company will try to control the things it can and will continue to cut costs and rein in production in order to maintain profitability as it looks to separate into two separate companies later this back to you. Mary thompson reporting. Alcoas results mean that earnings season is under way, and the Overall Results could confirm something that many investors fear, namely, that corporate profits are in a recession, about to decline for the Second Quarter. Dominic chu tells us what to expect from those Fourth Quarter numbers. Earnings season is kicking off, and some traders are worried about what could be an earnings recession. Now, in economic terms a recession is defined as at least two straight quarters of negative activity, and we could be seeing that same thing happen for corporate profits. According to data compiled by Thompson Reuters ibus earnings at s p 500 companies for the Fourth Quarter of 2015 are expected to decline by 4. 2 from the same time last year. Now, that would follow what was a decline of 0. 8 in the Third Quarter. So two straight quarters of earnings declines possibly. I think clearly the biggest drag on corporate earnings this season is going to be energy. Thats what it has been for all of 2015. I dont think the Fourth Quarter will be any different. Reporter the best expected Earnings Growth will come from the telecommunications, financial, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Now, its no secret where a lot of the weakness in profits will come from. The same place its been coming from in recent memory. Despite all the negative headlines surrounding oil and energyrelated companies, some experts still think valuations are approaching relatively attractive levels. I think were going to bottom on energy and oil in the First Quarter of 2016, and i would expect thats going to be behind us. Probably the trough in earnings may be the first or Second Quarter and i think by the third or Fourth Quarter well start to see positive relative performance to last year in the earnings sector. So i think really earnings in the Energy Sector could be a contributor for all of 2016. The last time that the s p 500 Energy Sector actually produced Profit Growth was the Third Quarter of 2014. And the forecasted declines in profits for the sector are so pronounced that if you hypothetically stripped away Energy Companies from the calculations youd actually get forecasted Profit Growth. Now the question for investors is whether or not all of that pessimism has already been priced into stocks or is there more down side ahead. For nightly Business Report im dominic chu. Jim paulson joins us now to talk more about the market and whether or not he thinks Fourth Quarter earnings will be the catalyst that sends stocks lower. Chief nimt strategist with Wells Fargo Capital management. Jim, always great to have you know, typically stocks dont go into a bear market in the United States unless the u. S. Economy goes into a recession. But here we may have the prospect of what dominic chu describes as an earnings recession. Do you think this bear market is either dead or dying . This bull market, excuse me. Yeah. My guess, tyler, at this point is i think were going to avoid a fullfledged bear market where the overall stock market, s p 500 falls 20 from its peak. But i think we might get close. And i think were going to challenge those august lows yet, that 1867 level about on the s p 500, and maybe actually fail that and get down around 1800 before we find a low. But i think that the earnings recession which it looks likely were going to have, the Second Quarter in a row of declining profitability, is mainly related to the energy and materials sector. A deep, deep recession in that area. But theres still a lot of other sectors that are growing earnings. And if we can arrest this drop in energy costs, then stop the burn rate of Earnings Loss from those two sectors. I think the rest of the sectors will overtake and will avoid a fullfledged economic or bull market ender, if you will. So if you have some cash sitting on the sidelines, jim, im reading from what youre saying that the volatility is going to probably continue, but if you have cash sitting on the sidelines would you deploy it here in the u. S. . Or do you find better value or better economic fundamentals or march accommodative central bankers elsewhere in the world . Yeah, sue, i think i think that were going to find a bottom in the stock market sometime in the first half of this year probably. But i think the leadership on the resumption of the bull market here might be away from the United States. Not that the u. S. Wont participate. But i really think were going to have a nice turn in both emerging and International Developing markets abroad. I just think theyve underperformed for four years running, theyre underowned in most portfolios, there are better relative values right now relative to the United States market. They have, as you mentioned, they have policies that are going to be supporting those markets where the fed is turning more hostile toward ours. Theyre still in an early part of their recovery cycle where they have more up side leverage in earnings among their companies, i believe. And personally i think maybe the dollar may surprise us yet in 2016 and weaken a little bit in the second half, which could help a lot if you have a Little International exposure. So yeah, id be putting cash flows on weekdays to Work Overseas i think. Jim paulson, stay warm out there in minneapolis. Jim paulson with Wells Fargo Capital management. And now to the federal reserve. Today atlanta fed president Dennis Lockhart said there may not be enough data on inflation to support a second rate hike in january or march. The Central Banks 2 inflation goal will be a big part of the debate when the fed next meets and when they should next raise rates. Especially as Oil Prices Continue to decline. And all of the anxiety in the stock market is trickling into the bond market, and that may be good for homeowners because of the pressure it is placing on mortgage rates. That means the refinancing wave may have crested, but even now for some homeowners refinancing could still make sense. Diana olick runs the numbers. Reporter more than 5 million u. S. Homeowners could be leaving cash on the table. That according to a new report from reese, inc. With rising home equity, more borrowers are now eligible to refinance. Nearly 2. 4 million could save 200 or more per month. And almost 2 million more could save between 100 and 200 a month. Add it up and thats 1. 2 billion in monthly savings being left on the table. If rates go up just half a percentage point from where they are now, 2 million borrowers fall out of the running. A full percentage point and its 3 million. The remaining pool of potential refi candidates would be the lowest number in recent history. And thats why borrowers may want to act now and not just to refinance but to take out a home equity line. Reese ran the numbers and found that the amount of home equity available to be capped is now up to 4. 2 trillion collectively. Thats up 600 billion over last year. Obviously, lenders are more strict on these loans nowadays than they were during the last housing boom, when borrowers were using their homes like atms. But that doesnt mean these loans have gone away. Borrowers today are starting to use them more and more but on the conservative side, to pay down other debt. For nightly Business Report im diana olick in washington. Still ahead, turbocharged. What automakers are doing to keep consumers spending after a record year for auto sales. Arch cole became the latest victim of falling commodity prices. The company filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The filing is part of a plan to cut 4. 5 billion in debt from its balance sheet. A health care mega merger to tell but. Shire has agreed to buy baxalta for 32 billion. It combines the makers of Rare Diseases and ends a sixmonth pursuit that was delayed because of tax issues. Shares of both fell in trading today. Shire dropping nearly 9 . And it comes on the same day as the Biggest Health care investing event of the year. Meg fir rell was there and spoke with some of the industrys major players. Reporter tough start to the jpmorgan conference this year as kernds in the industry over drug pricing really seem to weigh on stocks across the industry. We caught up with novartis ceo joe jimenez to talk about that issue here. If you think about cancer pricing, you have to think about the value that were creating. Remember, this is a deadly disease. Innovation has to continue to be rewarded or were just not going to be able to see the kind of breakthroughs that weve seen in the last even just the last year. Reporter there was a lot of news coming out of the conference including the announcement of the 32 billion acquisition of baxalta by shire. That had been anticipated for some time. The news coming today. Both stocks declining in this sort of overall environment of negativity in the sector. We also talked with pfizer and allergan, that 160 billion deal, the biggest of last year. They said they are confident it will close in 2016 despite some uncertainty around it, some political pressures. Upcoming this year there are some interesting clinical readouts. Specifically, eli lilly has a much anticipated Clinical Trial reading out at the end of the year in alzheimers disease. We caught up with ceo john lechleiter. I think the fundamentals of our industry have never been stronger. Im actually very optimistic about the year ahead, particularly given that lilly is now out of its period of patent expirations launching new products and getting back to growth. The conference continues for a few more days this week. Investors certainly hoping the mood picks up. For nightly Business Report im meg tirrell in san francisco. Macys comes under pressure from an activist investor. And thats where we begin tonights market focus. Starboard value wants macys to better leverage its real estate profiler to generate more value for shareholders. Starboard previously urged the company to spin off its real estate holdings, which macys rejected. Shares of the retailer up over 8 to 38. 82. And also in the Retail Sector kohls is reportedly considering going private or even breaking up the company. This as its shares have dropped about 40 since last spring. The board is said to be mulling over numerous ideas, and discussions are ongoing. Shares of the Department Store chain up 4 1 2 to 50. 06. Celgene cut its 2015 profit outlook, and it is also projecting that 2016 sales will miss analyst estimates and the Biotech Company also making changes at the top. Its current chief operating officer will become ceo effective in march. Shares of the Company Finished down nearly 5 1 2 to 103. 03. The forprofit educator Apollo Education Group exploring a possible sale to the private Equity Firm Apollo global management. The forprofit educator has struggled recently with enrollment amid various government investigations.