Transcripts For KQEH Nightly Business Report 20141218 : vima

KQEH Nightly Business Report December 18, 2014

From the central bank and finance ministry. Well take you to moscow for the very latest. All that and more tonight on nightly Business Report for wednesday, december 17th. Good evening, everyone. And welcome. Susie gharib has the night off. It was a day of major developments on multiple fronts and big swings up in the value of your stock holdings. The biggest, in fact, of the entire year. Start with the electrifying news the u. S. Will reverse 50 years of policy and restore diplomatic relations with cuba. Russia seemed for a day to staunch the bleeding in its currency and top it all off with signals from the Federal Reserve it wont raise Interest Rates for months if then. Last news sent stocks on a lateday tear and heres how things looked at the cloezing bell. Dow logged the best day since last december. All 30 stocks ended higher. Blue chip average surging 288 points. The nasdaq up 96, more than 2 gain and s p 500 rocketed 40 points, its best day in 14 months to put the index back above the 2000 mark. The feds generally rose the economic outlook, did put a chill in bonds after yesterdays rally, treasury staged biggest oneday selloff in three months as the yield on the tenyear note rose as you see there to 2. 136 . As for oil, it was another day of wild swings. Chevron, exxon mobile among the biggest gainers in the dow after domestic oil dipped to a fresh 5. 5 year low but ended 54 cents higher per barrel as you see there closing at 56. 47. International brent crude started lower too before it closed more than a dollar a barrel higher at 61. 18. Hampton pearson wraps it up on the feds decision and when policy makers may begin raising Interest Rates. Reporter a growing economy has the Federal Reserve moving closer to raising Interest Rates but fed chair janet yellin and fellow Monetary Policy makers say they will be patient in determining when to raise those rates. But thats not, she says, a policy change from the considerable time guide. It seems less helpful to continue to communicate about the possible timing of our first rate increase with reference to an event that is receding into the past. Instead, we have shifted to language that better reflects the committees focus on the Economic Conditions that would make liftoff appropriate. Reporter another reason for the patient approach, 2014 has been the best year for job growth in 15 years with unemployment down to 5. 8 and the fed sees a possible move next year closer to its full employment target of 5. 2 . The pace of job growth has been strong recently. Weve dropped gains, averaging nearly 280,000 per month over the past three months. Over the past 12 months, job gains average nearly 230,000 per month. Reporter unless theres a surprise in the economic data, the fed chair said she foresees no Interest Rate hike during the First Quarter of 2015. Updated Economic Forecast shows the central bank lowering its inflation forecast for next year to between 1 to 1. 6 , still below the feds target of 2 , taking into account the recent decline in oil prices. The decline weve seen in oil prices is likely to be on net, a positive. Its something that is certainly good for families, for households. Its putting more money in their pockets, having to spend less on gas and energy and so in that sense, its like a tax cut that boosts their spending power. Reporter the fed chair said the biggest mistake market watchers could make is to assume that a rate hike will only be announced after a meeting where theres a scheduled news conference. The fed chair said in 2015, every meeting will be live where we could take action. For nightly Business Report, im Hampton Pearson in washington. Bruce kaz min joining us now with more analysis on the fed, chief global anal cyst at j. P. Morgan. Stocks rallied today, and bonds sold off today. What respectively did stock and Bond Investors hear from the fed and did they get it right . Broadly, they did. I think when youre getting from the fed here around the meeting where theres a lot of messaging is basically a story that says they feel good about growth. They feel, with that growth, theyre more likely than not to start tightening at the june meeting and theyre not particularly worried about the risks related to russia or low inflation in terms of inflation expectation. Its a very upbeat message which is affirming of the guidance towards june with a little bit more commmitment here that at least the next two meetings, theyre not doing anything. They certainly suggested, didnt they, bruce, that not only would they be, quote, patient, but also be restrained with whatever the pace of rate raises turns out to be . Thats correct. And what you saw today was a forecaster vision where the fed both lowered inflation and Unemployment Rate forecast but actually lowered its guidance there in terms of what its forecasting for rates out in 2015 and 16. So its slightly a softer path of rate hikes. So do you think that this means kind of a green light for equities over the next few months or what . Well, i still think the Biggest Issue here is the economy, how it deals with the dollar and energy price decline. Whether theres concentrated damage done in credit markets or elsewhere, so we still have to watch whats going on and i think thats going to be the key. Were reasonably upbeat and i think its going to be a Good Environment for growth. It is going to deliver the fed tightening but theres a lot of questions we still have to answer. Lots of questions, but do we, are we closer now, bruce, to a level of certainty with what the feds policy is going to be . A different way of asking that is, worry about Interest Rates kind of off the table now . I dont think thats true in the sense that once the fed gets to the point where it starts raising rates, the path that its delivering, even though its a little shallower today, well below what the market is currently expecting. I think we still have an event if the fed gets to that point and starts delivering on its guidance. You know, chair yellin talked about the fact that the Falling Oil Prices are a net positive for the u. S. Economy. Do you see it that way too . I think its a Huge Positive for the u. S. Economy and the Global Economy notwithstanding some concentrated pain thats being felt in some places in the world. Lower Energy Prices and a tax cut for consumers, its opening the door for some monetary easing elsewhere in the world. I think this is going to be a significant positive, as it has been in the past in periods in which oil prices have fallen not being accompanied by recession. Do we need to worry about russia . I think we need to worry about Global Financial markets, digesting oil prices. Russia itself is not a threat to the u. S. Economy but i think the concentrated hitting markets for Energy Crisis is something to worry about as well as the general problems i think were going to have as emerging market credit cycles continued to unwind. Bruce, interesting points. Covered a lot of ground. Thank you. Bruce kasmin with j. P. Morgan. Now to cuba. After five decades of diplomatic chill if not outright hostility, the u. S. Will normalize relations with cubas castro regime. Long standing trade embargo for now, changing that takes an act of congress. Something quick to say they would strongly oppose. Both countries have already eased travel, trade, and Money Transfer restrictions and more relaxation is now in the cards. So what will todays changes mean for both economies and for american businesses . Michelle carusocabrera has more. Reporter the u. S. Will establish diplomatic relations with cuba for the First Time Since the 60s and reestablish an embassy in havana. While todays announcement doesnt end the travel ban completely, travel licenses will be much easier to obtain for family visits and educational and religious activities. U. S. Businesses will be able to open certain kinds of financial accounts in cubas banks. In order to make it easier to process authorized types of transactions. U. S. Credit cards and debit cards will be permitted for the first time for u. S. Travelers going to cuba. The u. S. Will also allow the exporter eer telecommunication equipment in cuba. And rallied on the announcement on the anticipation that there will be increased tourism into the country. Many investors told us today they dont think these steps alone are enough to invest directly into the island due to the lack of rule of law and the cuba government controls 80 of the countrys economy would not provide Strong Enough government to ensure their investment is safe. Nightly Business Report, michelle carusocabrera. More on restoring relations with cuba and what it would mean for commerce is fernando donair, at innca investments. Whats your initial reaction about normalizing relations with cuba and how quickly will it lead to Investment Opportunities either for american businesses or for american investors . Well, i think its an important first step and its a very symbolic step in many ways. So the actual restrictions that are eased, we dont completely know what they are going to be. Well see that when the regulations are actually issued. But it is a symbolic first step and when it will lead to something more significant, its eventually they end up leading to the repeal of the embargo. Do you think that will happen and if so, how soon . Because as we mentioned, a lot of the president s political critics on the hill say, fundamentally, not on my watch. Well, while there are some critics to it, i think that the momentum has been shifting to more people thinking that we need a new policy of engagement and that includes not only politically but commercially and so i think that the momentum shifting over, it could be something that we would hope would happen within a year or two. Will any of the changes that you see coming out of todays announcement be of the sort that could materially affect the stock market values of u. S. Companies . For example, if an airline or a cruise line is able to go into cuba with some regularity, is it of a scale that will affect their profits immediately or not . Well, eventually, it could. Right now, as i mentioned, its still too early to tell because we dont know what the specific regulation changes are going to be to travel, but certainly what we heard is that there will be a lifting of the travel restrictions and then it would also be much more convenient for u. S. Travelers to go to the island because they would be able to use atm cards or their credit cards, which up to now, they have been not able to do. In addition, we believe what the president was saying is that he is going to lift specific special license restrictions. So now you will be able to go, maybe in and out for tourism purposes, but be able to go by the declaration of what the intent of your travel purpose is rather than applying through government tal agency to be allow allowed. That could increase number of tourists we see there. Quickly, fernando, whats that mean for the domestic economy in cuba . Well, as you mentioned earlier, over 80 of the economy is controlled by the cuban government, and so right away, we dont know how much its going to be in effect that part of the economy. Thats the part of economy in great need of capital and the restrictions that are going to be lifted i dont think will affect that. I think a more direct effect is talking about lifting the ability of remittances from the United States to cuban businesses. And so for the small entrepreneurial class just now starting to develop in cuba, it could have a more significant effect for them. Fernando, thank you very much for being with us tonight. With inka investments. Hot spot in russia, consumers rushed into stores today to buy big ticket goods as prices shot higher amid crippling economic sanctions by the west and more volatility in russias currency. The ruble, which actually regains value today. Jeff cutmor has more from moscow. The decline weve seen in the russian ruble this week has sent russians into the stores. Theyve been buying electronic goods and cars as a way of both trying to beat inflation and also trying to preserve the value of their wealth. Over the course of 2014, the russian currency has lost more than half of its value against the dollar and the euro and that has had very painful effect here on consumers. It has pushed the value of many foreign goods well out of their reach. The authorities here have responded by dramatically lifting Interest Rates to 17 and trying to intervene in the currency markets in a scramble to defend the russian ruble. At this point, these attempts dont seem to be working successfully. Jeff cutmore reporting from moscow. Still ahead, the part of the Housing Market that could be very, very active in the coming years. A stunning lateday development in the saga over Sony Pictures controversial picture the interview in the wake of a massive hack attack at the studio which led to unspecified threats against movie goers looking to see the film. Julia boorstin joins us now with more from los angeles. Julia, lateday developments here, the likes of which ive never heard before. Reporter absolutely, tyler. Really shocking news here. Sony announcing that it has decided to pull the scheduled december 25th release of the film the interview. So pictures has been victim of a criminal assault against employ customers and businesses to thwart the release of a movie they did not like. We are deeply saddened and bravened efforts in a process to damage to our companies, our employees and the american public. Now, tyler, the decision from sony to pull the release of the movie comes on the heels of the exhibitors of all the theater chains reacting to the threats. The five largest theater chains decided not to run the movie. Tyler . How much, julia, did this movie cost to make and is there a possibility, however remote, that it may be released in a period of weeks, months, or released to the internet via netflix or so sort . Reporter the cost, the budget was between 42 million and 44 million. There was additional tens of millions of dollars in marketing costs. So this was a significant cost to sony, not one of their most expensive movies but it wasnt a very low budget movie. As to what will happen with the release, sony can certainly do a direct video on demand release and can do direct video on demand very soon. They dont have to wait the usual period of time after now theyre not doing a theatril release. Theyre leaving the door open for that, but the real focus seems to be in allowing department of Homeland Security and the fbi to continue their investigations into whether theres any credibility to these threats. But certainly, no Theatrical Release next week. Stunning news there out of los angeles. Oracles a losing streak and thats where we begin the market focus. Reporting results that Beat Estimates on the top and bottom lines. For the past few quarters, the company struggled to gain traction in the competitive cloud sector but the cloud revenue climbed last quarter. Shares popped initially after the bell, before the close, shares were up more than 1 to 41. 16. Look at the move there later. Fedex delivered disappointing results though. The Package Delivery giant said the december shipping volume was lower than expected, spent more money preparing for the holiday rush. Falling oil prices didnt help all that much, evidently, and fedex said the drop wont have a major effect on future results. Overall earnings missed estimates and the company reiterated its outlook which investors didnt seem to like. Shares fell almost 4 to 1 167. 78. General mills, sales fell in most recent quarter because of continued weakness in the Food Industry and slowing growth in emerging markets. The cheerios maker said it would increase sales with new products it plans to introduce to consumers like gluten free snacks. Stock rose to 52. 19. On deck in the trading debut, the company which is an online lender that makes loans to Small Businesses priced shares at 20 a piece well above the expected range. Expect to raise 2 million bucks. Higher by about 40 on the day. One bright spot in the nations uneven housing recovery is sort of boom as the nations nearly 80 million baby boomers finally make their big move. For some time, the boomer segment was stuck along with the rest of the Housing Market but now, Home Builders are betting active adult could be their most active segment of 2015. Diana olic has the story. Reporter the competition is fierce. In the pool, on the court, at the table, and among Home Builders taking a big bet on the 55 and older socalled active adults Housing Market. Buyers feeling better about finances and also feeling better about their ability to sell given the rest of the Housing Market improved. Were excited. Reporter about an hour outside the city, atlantas dell web division put 800 homes into sun city, peachtree, and expect to finish at over 3,000. Everyone talks about baby boomers wanting to live in the city and not moving out of the active adult communities. Yeah, i dont get that. Reporter steve sutton, turning 55 this weekend, wife working fulltime but the kids are grown and didnt want the hassle of the big house anymore. We wanted to use the amenities as long as possible. Reporter thats the big selling point. Active means activities. Too many to even fit on the activity board. If you tr

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