Business. Okay. Take a deep breath. Count to ten. Because there may at last be a way out of at least part of the monumental standoff in washington. Right now were just half an hour away from a crucial meeting between House Republican leaders and the president at the white house. And everything could hinge on what happens there. Senate democrats just left the white house after their meeting, and Senate Republicans will head over tomorrow morning. Now over in the house, gop leaders announced this morning that theyll offer a bill authorizing a temporary increase in the debt ceiling if the president will agree to substantive negotiations on other fiscal matters. What we want to do is to offer the president today the ability to move a temporary increase in the debt ceiling in agreement to go to conference on the budget for his willingness to sit down and discuss with us a way forward to reopen the government. Yep. You heard it right. This quote unquote deal would not even open the government. It would simply allow the government to pay its bills until november 22nd. In other words, the gop wont release the hostage, but they may agree not to shoot the hostage until around thanksgiving. But if Speaker Boehner can get the conversation he so desperately wants, what about the shutdown thing . Could we take care of that too . If and and buts were candy an nuts every day would be christmas. Ah, that old boehner chestnut. Nevertheless, the white house said today that the white house proposal is tentatively encouraging. But theyll wait to see what they actually get. To continue to talk about ifs and buts as the speaker said doesnt get us anywhere. We havent seen anything from the House Republicans yet. The president believes they ought to pay our bills. The president believes they ought to turn on the lights. And the president has always been willing to negotiate. So im getting the sense there is still a lot of ifs and buts out there. But if the house could pass a clean bill to avoid default, and yes, thats still an if, would the president sign it . The answer is yes, but hes not paying a ransom for congress to do its job. I think we ought to see whether theyre serious about, you know, putting the matches and the gasoline aside when it comes to threatening default. We may just find out how serious they are within the hour. And in case you think the public isnt paying attention, our brandnew nbc wall street journal poll shows nearly 2 3 of americans, 63 say failure to raise the debt ceiling would be a real and serious problem. Lets get to washington. Dana milbank, Political Columnist for the washington post. Nbc political analyst michael eric dyson, and msnbc contributor jared bernstein, senior fellow at the center on budget and policy priorities and former aide to Vice President joe biden. We just learned that treasury secretary jack lew will be at the white house meeting. How much confidence can we have that at this point republicans are actually starting to make a little bit of sense . Well, confidence is kind of an iffy word right now to talk about ifs and buts. Its really very unpredictable. But it is looking better than it was yesterday at this time. And i think what youre seeing here is the beginning of some cracks in the republican unity. Theyre looking at dismal poll numbers. Theyre hearing it from the business community, and theyre realizing even the Tea Party Folks are realizing this is not going to be going their way. Its not exactly clear how they fold and how they do it in the most elegant way and the most facesaving way. But certainly the debt limit is the easiest piece of them to give up on. And it sounds like more concessions will follow. So professor dyson, folding elegantly, as david just mentioned, all of the problems that republicans are facing in their home districts, the unpopularity, the pain that is being felt at home, they arent yet as a result of the debt limit. Theyre because of the shutdown. So why is it that if republicans are starting to understand theyre going to lose, why not reopen the government . Well, because theyre that stubborn, joy there is no rhyme or reason here. There is no logic. There is an inelegant folding going on here, and its through coercion. In fact, the only thing they seem to understand is a gun to the head. So these polls are a gun to the head, so to speak. The negative blowback from their own districts and from the republican, you know, center there suggests to them that they have to move here. Thats the only language they seem to deal with. Thats the only commerce that they seem to trade in. So i think here unfortunately, until it becomes a basically apparent that the American Public is so fed up with them that the threat of them getting out of office looms large, or the fact that their numbers dipped so low that the president s hand is strengthened will they begin to understand, all right, weve got to move yet another inch. Thats unfortunately the metric by which they calculate their moves. And while were talking, i want to just point out to the viewers that we are watching for the arrives of the Republican Leaders who are set to start filing into the white house for this meeting. I do want to go over to you, jared, though. Were starting to see ripples of the real impact on the economy of what the republicans have done thus far. How bad is it, and how much time do we have before we start to see Economic Impacts that are serious and severe if they dont turn this around . Well, there is two levels of impacts. One is actual and the other is potential. The actual comes from the shutdown and the sequester by the way, which are already in place, and most economists think thats shaving a couple of tenths of percent off gdp growth. Now thats not huge. But if you actually get down to the level of individual people and their businesses, its hurting. Ive heard, for example, from businesses that are outside national parks, theyre doing no business at all. So tourism has taken a hit. But then there is the potential damage of actually failing to raise the debt ceiling. And thats a much more serious breach of the economy, one that would take us probably from recovery to recession. Even what we have done so far, even suggesting that we might entertain the possibility of default has led to Rising Interest Rates on shortterm bonds. So those problems are there, joy. And jared, and yet at the same time we do have the bond issue you talked about, but you have the dow up 323. Can you explain that . Yes. Thats what i was going to say. Now, the reason that the dow is on this huge relief rally today is because they think there is a deal out there. And to me its yet one of these very interesting symbols of the connection between washington dysfunction and markets. And ill tell you something else. If this deal for some reason doesnt come through, its kind of look out below from the markets perspective, because there are things we still dont know. Let me tell you one thing. The wall street journal had this just an hour or so ago. Apparently as part of this deal, the republicans are insisting that the treasury permanently give up on these extraordinary measures that theyve used to extend the debt ceiling. Theyll no longer be able to use extraordinary measures if they accept this deal. Im not sure the white house is going to bite at that so quickly. Thats defanging the treasury. That sounds like a bright idea. Dana, i want to go back over to you. Your paper is reporting you have Senate Democrats and republicans working together. Is this a sign the complete loss of confidence in John Boehners ability to do anything has now bled into the republican conference in the senate . Its part of that going on, but also i think people have said okay, ted cruz, you had your crack at this. Youve got us into a terrible mess. So i think some of the leadership like Mitch Mcconnell is getting a bit more brave. And that is to some extent happening in the house too, what you saw with paul ryan stepping back from the obama care demands. So the leadership in both chambers i think is beginning to get a bit more of an upper hand saying no to the Tea Party Folks. Theyre a long way from having this all taken care of. But the very fact that theyre stepping back from obama care which was a nonnegotiable position for the administration to be in, now there are things that they at least can talk about. So that is good news. You dont want to predict success at any point in washington. But were certainly looking in a better position. Professor dyson, before we get too happy about the potential for compromise, the magical thinking still hasnt gone completely away in the republican conference. This is what ted cruz has been saying to members of his party according to the national review. Cruz argued to republicans at a closed door lunch on wednesday, according to the national review, that the campaign he led to shut down the government over obama care has bolstered the galena parks political position. He knows this because he paid for his own poll, conducted by his own very own partisan pollster. How much longer does cruz get away with essentially lying to members of the house of representatives on the republican side . Well, the republicans are going to come up off of cruz control and theyre going to try to take it back over again. This is not a pilot this is not what you call an instrument landing here. This is going to have to be a pilotdriven thing. And john boehner has to be the pilot that takes over from the instrument landing. A and the instrument landing is ted cruz, because he has been the kind of, you know, reading of the Republican Party from the right because theyve been so afraid of the tea party element of that party that they have been incapable of saying, look, that doesnt make sense, even for our own interests. So theyve got to redefine themselves away from the ted cruz craziness and the lunatic fringe and come back to center. And all obama has been doing from the very beginning, the president that is, is saying, look, im willing to negotiate, but just not about this stuff, because this stuff is already law. And im not going to talk about the debt ceiling because those are bills weve already got to pay because weve incurred the debt already. But im willing to negotiate about other stuff out here. You would think that would be the beginning point. But they have been forced into this. And it seems they have made a bigger achievement than they have. Were giving them bigger credit. Were grading them on a curve. This is a dunce democracy. Theyre trying to be graded as people who are competent. And i think we have to be honest about that. I have to tell you, professor, john boehner being the pilot that flies us out of this is probably the most terrifying thing ive ever heard. No question about this. Put your seat belts on. Its going to be a bumpy ride. Thank you all. And coming up, what is the glitch as d. C. Debates shutdown, where, oh, where has the fight over obama care gone . Well answer that question as we await a showdown between the president and the Republican Leadership. Put the lime in the coconut, said doctor is there nothing i can take my name is mike and i quit smoking. Chantix. Its a nonnicotine pill. I didnt want nicotine to give up nicotine. 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Common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. It feels wonderful. I dont smoke. I dont smoke. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. I dont smoke. Evto earn degrees in mathan stand science. Ut but more than half leave their programs. So were missing out on 450,000 math and science graduates annually. But if we can help students prepare for these subjects well have a stronger workforce for our fastestgrowing industries. Lets invest in our future. Join exxonmobil in advancing math and science education. Lets solve this. Were awaiting a meeting of republican congressional leaders, including Speaker John Boehner at the white house with the possibility of a thaw over the Government Shutdown. One wonders if the gop will play nice on the Affordable Care act, something jon stewart did not do when interviewing health and Human Services secretary Kathleen Sebelius this week. The obama care is for the 15 ers. For the 15 who have no insurance at all. I see. How many have signed up thus far . Fully enrolled . Yeah. I cant tell you. Because i dont know. Well, we do know in the first week of open enrollment, more than 8 million americans visited health care. Gov, glitches and all, and presumably some of them sign upped for health insurance. Unless the opponents of the Affordable Care act are willing to tell those who already sign upped never mind, just kidding, you dont really have coverage, to quote the president , the Affordable Care act is here to stay. It would appear republicans are finally coming around to that. Now show resignation saying id like to get rid of obama care, no question than. But i think that effort has failed. With Lindsey Graham adding we took an unpopular law and chose a more unpopular tactic to deal with the law. And as for who is behind this unpopular tactic, here is senator john mccain. We started this on a fools errand, convincing so many millions of americans in our supporters that we could defund obama care. The people that convinced so many millions of americans, tea partiers who were specifically talking about, that there was some way we could defund obama care. We cant. And for more, im joined by msnbc policy analyst and wizard of data ezra klein. Wizard. Wizard of data. Is that it now . Are republicans finally coming to the realization that they cannot get rid of the Affordable Care act . Ainge lot of mainstream republicans have been there for a while. You remember Speaker Boehner right after the election gave an interview and said obama care is the law of the land. That didnt appear to stick very long. If you talk to House Republicans, what theyre saying, the new deal is theyre going to extend the debt court of appealing for six weeks is doing that will allow them to focus on obama care, as opposed to having to focus on the debt ceiling. But in that segment of the party which has been a very perfect segment of the party, a much more powerful segment than the orrin hatch john mccain segment of late, they believe its part of a grand plan with some serious blow dealt against the oyed forable care act. That base has been lied to. They were told, as you were pointed out that if you shut down the government you will get rid of this horrible thing, the Affordable Care act. That didnt happen, but you still do have some on the right arguing that the republicans have to keep fighting. And when paul ryan tried to pull them back too the fiscal issues that are usually better for republicans, he wouldnt let them. Paul rand had to take that back. You ever seen the south park episode about the underpant gnomes. There is this famous, and the Republican Party is trapped in this underpants gnome theory of getting obama care. Step one shut down the federal government. Step two, mm, step three, obama care is done for. Thats been the Erick Erickson wing of the party for some time now. The polls are terrible for the Republican Party. Theyre being blamed hugely. Theyre currently the least Popular Party in the whole time gallup has been polling the question. But if you read them, its going great. Its going really well. Ted cruz makes a the point theyre not quite as unpopular as republicans were in 1995. Its not at all clear how this ends in some kind of blow dealt against obama care. But they do believe if they hold out long enough, democrats will in some way buckle and give them something. Something. They dont know what that is to quote one of their members. What is interesting is the Affordable Care act itself hasnt necessarily risen in the esteem of the marine layer people. You do have some people signing up. So the concept of Getting Health Care is still popular. What is thor there hold here . When do we know whether or not the Affordable Care act is a success . Is it a year . When do we start to judge it . It will take a long time to judge it. I dont think people should beat around the bush on this. They have done a terrible job launching this law. Glitchy site. It isnt just a glitchy site. Basically nobody is capable of signing up for Affordable Health care right now or any health insurance, affordable or not that is not okay. They did a bad job running a very big program to help a lot of americans. Now three weeks from now, four weeks from now, it might all be fixed. It might be fine. And there is something to that. A stat i heard the other