Plus, who are the people who keep voting for donald trump . Did you vote for barack obama . Yeah, i sure did. Twice . Twice, absolutely. My report from the caucuses. Then, whats the clinton and sanders plan to beat trump . Ill ask both their Campaign Managers. And president obama vows to ignore the unprecedented Republican Supreme Court blockade. Lets see how the public responds to the nominee we put forward. Is the white house considering a surprise republican nominee . When all in starts right now. Good evening from new york city, im chris hayes. All right. Ever since Real Estate Developer reality tv personality prominent proponent of birther nonsense donald trump came down that escalator in june to announce he was running for president americans have grappled with an increasingly intense series of is this really happening moments . Last night with trumps Third Straight victory, an overwhelming 22point win in nevada, we experienced our most jarring such moment yet. If you listen to the pundits, we werent expected to win too much and now were winning, winning, winning the country. [ cheers ] and soon the country is going to start winning, winning, winning. We won the evangelicals. We won with young. We won with old. We won with highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated. Trumps victory lap today included a trip to the Pat Robertson found Regent University in virginia where trump got cozy with another of americas greatest televangelists. We have tremendous support and we have amazing people in this country, and one of the most amazing people in the whole country is our great friend, pat. Will you come out here, pat . Look at him. One of the great people. Yes, sir. Thank you. After trumps win last night, the political and media world finally seemed to come to grips with the fact that this seemingly preposterous candidate who tosses off calls for war crimes and Human Rights Violations in the same showmans tone he assigned challenges on the apprentice appears to be pulling off in our midst a hostile takeover of one of americas two Major Political parties. Despite, or perhaps, in fact, partly because of a string of outrageous provocations that prompted pundits to predict his political demise over and over and over again. Theyre rapists. I like people that werent captured. I dont know what i said. Blood coming out of her wherever. How stupid are the people of iowa . Total and complete shutdown of musls entering the United States. I could stand in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot somebody and wouldnt lose votes. When you get these terrorists, have to take out their families. Id bomb the [ bleep ] out of them. Would like to punch him in the face, i tell you. That guy according to the influential conservative website the drudge report, that guy is, quote, the nominee for one of americas two parties, the one that elected abraham lincoln, in uninterrupted existence for over 150 years. Now, is it a done deal . It is not and trumps increasingly desperate rivals are making the case it is far too early for the race to be called, but lets be clear eyed about what the facts are. Trump has won three out of the four states by double digits. Took almost half the votes in nevada last night, winning among every category of republicans. Last night trump drove record turnout garnering more votes himself, nearly 35,000, than the total of number of votes cast in the entire gop caucuses in nevada four years ago. Trump won 33 of the popular votes cast in republican contests and as ted cruz and marco rubio point out, that means 2 3 of republicans arent voting for trump, at least not at the moment. Indeed if you combine the roughly 20 each of those candidates are getting, ty are beating trump together. But the notion that all the other votes are antitrump, that Republican Voters will rally behind anyone else is belied by a lot of the data. Last week nbc News Survey Monkey poll showed among ben carson supporters 22 chose trump, higher percentage that chose cruz and higher percentage that those rubio. On the ground in nevada last night i experienced the reality up close in the face of what is happening to the Republican Party firsthand as i walked from table to table at a gop caucus site. Trump was the dominant figure. His name ringing out over and over, his presence looming over the process like a enblazened over his last name. From voters, members of both Major Political parties need to get very serious about what they want to do about that. Joining me now jess mcintosh, spokesperson for emilys list. Sam cedar, host of the majority report. And nick. It was a wakeup moment last night. I dont know how many wakeup moments you need because theres been this entire time its not happening, its no happening. Last night it was kind of this, i dont know why it was, was it the margin of victory, was it the fact its three out of four, the fact its now threw in a row . It feet like this sort of apocyl thing happened. A congressman, a libertarian leaning republican congressman said, i believe were witnessing the beginning of the end of the current twoparty system in the United States. Does that stand to you . It does. It really does . No, i think its possible that if trump wins that the Republican Party reconstitutes itself as a genuinely populous conservative partyand not a weak marriage between wall street and rich people and that would be a fascinating thing in politics. It is possible. Like you could imagine a version of the Republican Party that embraces this kind of white identity politics, backlash politics combined with the, you know, skepticism toward trade, skepticism toward immigration, a desire for social security, expansion for the right deserving people, that sort of thing . Yes, a protection of entitlements for the right people, for the deserving middle class as they see it. Youre shaking your head now. Yeah, i think thats unlikely. Playing this out if trump becomes the nominee and loses, i think in a couple years were back to exactly where we are now. The big money comes back in, fills the vacuum and continues to exploit that sentiment that trump that goes toward trump. Continues to try and ride this sort of bull as it were and lose more and more control over it over time. I dont know that theres going to be an infrastructure around that. I mean other than i think, like, sort of the Cottage Industries that seem to grow up around it now. Jess, whats your take on this . I think nick could be right. I think that might be where the republican matter is heading. I dont think that that and the Republican Party being headed for oblivion are mutually exclusive. If they decide right. To take the tact where they are double down on being there for a small white male segment of the american population, thats not a sustainable tact for the National Matter to take. That will be the end of them. So i think were seeing the fruit of a lot of labor on the part of republicans, like, honestly i blame lee atwater for donald trump. This has been going on forever for republicans deciding to pander to the grossest, misogynistic element of their base and after many decades of telling them that they matter, guess what they do, and this is what they want. What they want is somebody whos not a part of the Republican Party and man, thats really got us smart for everybody who works really hard to make that a National Party. Yes. Let me interject for a moment, which is to say that you talk about the sort of most xenophobic. Ive been talking to trump voters, ive been corresponding with some. Theyre a Broader Group of people than you might initially think. Were going to talk about that in a little bit which is not to say the ideas that are being embraced, quoted by him are not those things. Theyre 100 those things. But to me, part of it is a total breakdown in the mechanism of the Republican Party. Ezra klein had this point the other day where he said a party literally exists to structure information. Thats why a modern party it signals people, says, yes, thats our guy, thats not our guy, thats our gal, thats not our gal. This is broken down. They are unable to signal properly to their people to listen to their stamp of approval. Right. You can also see it in terms of institutions. We have the Koch Brothers have a political apparatus that employs three times the amount of people as the Republican National committee. I mean, so you have a situation here where theres just other institutions that are moving in. I mean, im not convinced that what jess is saying is the future of the Republican Party. I think thats now. I think that were just not were going to realize in hindsight that this is where its been heading and were there now where they are not a National Party. You cannot have someone win their primary and then turn toward the American Public and be elected. It doesnt mean that they cant control congress, but i dont think that theyre a National Party. I dont think i would just point out, right, that they control statehouses in over 3 5 of the states. They control both houses of congress. They look like a National Matter to any. I dont think its possible, frankly, for a republican to win the presidency a National Party and a party that can win president ial elections which is the ultimate prize and also involves 120 million voters casting their vote on the same day. I think theres always going to be republicans who are going to win in states and win in congressional seats but i dont think that necessarily this smacks of a certain kind of triumphalism im not ready to buy into. There has been for a long time, i think, there as been an idea among liberals, democrats, people in the center left, Political Class of the democrats, that donald trump will be a disaster. I mean, it was the inverse of what john kasich said about Bernie Sanders. Right, john kasich of the debate says if Bernie Sanders wins, were winning 50 states, im not even going to there is a belief that i dont know if that, jess, i mean, youre someone whos gotten a lot of electoral experience. You know, youve been around races. I dont know if that confidence is earned at this point. No, i mean, i think its terrifying to run against somebody as unstable as donald trump is. And there is no playbook for that. I think, you know, when kasich made those comments, we have seen what happens with candidates in the mold of Bernie Sanders before. We have never seen what happens with candidates in the mold of donald trump before because nobody like donald trump has ever been a nominee for president. So its a little like running against a monkey with a gun, like, yeah, youre a person, so youre probably going to beat the monkey, but the monkeys got a gun and youhave no idea what its going to do with it. So i think any confidence that this is going to be easy by any stretch is definitely misplaced. That said, i think there could not possibly be a clearer and more compelling contrast between what democrats are saying for america and what Hillary Clinton is saying about breaking down barriers and donald trump wanting to build walls. Like, that is a contrast that i am okay with entering into the general election. Okay. I would just say i see it the on opposite, right . I see the republicans as a strong party and the democrats as a party that can only win the white house. Right. If they dont win it one year, thats it. Thats right. If you look at trump, you think about what states can trump win that mitt romney could not win . Think about the appeal that trump has to union workers, in the industrial midwest, in places like indiana and ohio, other places like that. I think democrats would be foolish to underestimate the appeal he could have in national election. A great piece was in the Huffington Post about that wisconsin, ohio, pennsylvania belt essentially and what that could mean for a national election. Before we get ahead of ourselves, lets just also consider the fact that mega donors have shied away from you talked about the koch organization. No one is going to drop you know, this is the empire, its like a this dude showed up outside the empires walls and people just resigned without firing a shot. They just decided, like, were going to get out of okay, ill get down from my throne, whine about it a little bit, okay, guess its all yours, that guy said some mean things. Like, hey, how feckless are you . If you actually care what you say you care about and if you believe this guy stands for all the things you say you dont stand for, then put some money and some effort in trying to stop him, but there has not been that in any concerted way. There has to be an alternative. That field is totally a disappointment. Jeb bush had 130 million, 150 million. If im a millionaire or billionaire, maybe a billionaire, im a little looser with it, im looking, saying he has 120 million. Right. If thats not going to work, why is mine going to work . Why throw good money after bad . All right. Jess mcintosh, sam seder, nick confessore. Still to come, who, who are the people voting if donald trump . I talked to his supporters at the nevada caucuses. A breakdown of the Trump Coalition next. Plus the pressing question on the democratic candidate, can you beat donald trump in the general election. Ill ask the Campaign Managers for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders to make their case. Later, did president obama just call their bluff . His remarks and more ahead. Were always looking for ways to speed up your Car Insurance search. Heres the latest. Problem is, we havent figured out how to reverse it. For now, just log on to compare. Com. Plug in some simple info and get up to 50 free quotes. Choose the lowest and hit purchase. Now. If youll excuse me, im late for an important function. Compare. Com. Saving humanity from high insurance rates. Last night was rough for team ted cruz. Donald trump took more than twice as many votes as cruz in the nevada caucus, but his dominance was apparent long before any of the results were actually tallied. Take, for example, the video of cruz supporter and right wing icon glenn beck speaking at a las vegas caucus site. America is great because of two reasons [ inaudible ] all right. If you pause it there, you hear the whoops and the cheers and sounds like beck is getting ahold of the crowd, getting them geared up. Maybe, just maybe his stump speech for cruz is resonating, perhaps swaying caucusgoers. Or maybe not. At that moment, turns out donald j. Trump was walking into the caucus site. Backs started turning on glenn louder yelps and cheers and eventually allout pandemonium. Heres the birdseye view when trump arrived which we sped up. See the mob scene rushed to get a glimpse of the donald. As glenn beck stepped down from the stage, the message from the room was clear. Trump trump up next, what the heck are are these people thinking . My interviews with caucusgoers who chose trump, ahead. So we had a very exciting evening last night, and i went all around. The word, caucus, its a little complicated because you dont know how its going to work out and they say its hard to poll, but we polled fine and really won big last night, so we ended up getting 46 of the vote and, you know, during the day i was walking, i saw all these people saying donald, i love you, donald, i love you. You never know whats going to happen. The defining feature of trumps decisive victory last night is how well he performed more or less across the board with the various groups that make up the republican coalition. Thanks in part to recordsetting turnout in nevada, trump nabbed 46 of the vote, the highest share won by any republican in any state thus far in 2016. But since hes right now managing to win pluralties of so many different kinds of voters, the question is, what exactly do people who are voting for donald trump have in common . There are a few theories out there. c a political scientist examined recent polling data to better understand the trump voter and found, a significant part of the coalition of his voters are people who are responsive to religious, social, and racial intolerance. Meanwhile researcher mad you mcwilliams found a voters gender, education, age, ideology, party identification, had no bearing on who supported trump. Ones inclination toward authoritarian border. Protect social norms and are wary of outsiders. They support aggressive leaders and policies. Enter donald j. Trump. What do the voters, themselves, have to say . Last night i went to a caucus site in durango, and heard what some caucusgoers had to say. What brought you to trump . Business, actually. The i like him as a leader. I like him as a, you know, i know hes not a politician, thats actually what i prefer is a nonpolitician, point of view i feel like america is a business. We got a huge debt in this country and i feel like if anything he knows how to handle the budget better than anyone else. c im here supporting donald trump. You are . I make no bones about it because we have tried every way in the world to get a foothold in d. C. And stop some of the crap and, well, lets see, i was a cruz supporter. Cruz cheated and lied. Rubio, hes an establishment shill. Thats all he is. What is it about trump . You said youve basically been supporting him since the beginning. Right, right, right. Because hes aggressive and hes strong and hes bold. So you the thing that really pulls you to him are his personality qualities more than his, like, positions . Right