Theory. Folks, were winning. Were winning. Were winning. Michael moore joins me on the trump effect and his new movie. A lot of people say that trump is a clown. He wont be when hes president. Michael moore in trumpland. Anybody from the i dont like hillary camp that can Say Something nice about her . Early voting in the swing states and what past president ial campaigns looked like 15 days out. Hey, you guys, i didnt name taxachussets. The people named it taxachussetk. Good evening, im chris hayes. Technically, election day is still 15 days away, november 8th, two weeks from tomorrow. But for some places, election day is already here. Early voting has been under way in ohio, North Carolina, nevada, iowa, georgia and arizona. Weve been getting new data from those states well bring you in a bit. Today, early voting kicked off in a number of other states, including three crucial battlegrounds, colorado, and florida. Texas and alaska, the president ial race got a lot closer prompting the Associated Press of taking the unheard of step to the lean column. Barring some massive unforeseen disruption in the very near future, Hillary Clinton is currently beating donald trump by between five and eight points in the National Polling average. Slightly smaller than president obamas average over john mccain at this point in 2008, and much bigger than his tiny edge over mitt romney in 2012. According to the latest battleground states, between states that are currently democrat or lean democrat, thats if she can hang on to those. After the candidate spent months making their case, the american people, this is where the rubber meets the road. Its time for the campaign to turn people into voters. The two key questions now, whether clintons operation can seal the deal and just how far can it press its advantage to help elect democrats down the ballot. And they dont appear to be taking any chances deploying one of the partys top clothers, president barack obama, whos Approval Rating spiked to 57 last week. Not even Ronald Reagan was that fop lar at this point in his presidency. Last night, the president was campaigning in nevada. There is a tough battle between democrat and republican joe hack. Catherine store, heres somebody who spent a career in nevada working with republicans and Law Enforcement to do right by you and make you safer. And meanwhile you were her opponent, joe hack, who was supporting donald trump, who was bragging about actions that qualify as sexual assault. What the heck . What the heck . Heck, no. See, thats his last name. Under pressure due to the release, the infamous tape in which donald trump brags about committing sexual assault, heck eventually withdrew his endorsement of donald trump. President obama took on Republican Congressional candidates around the country. Now the excuse for why they arent supporting trump, you should vote republican anyway because well check hillarys power. Well be a counterweight. No, no, no. Listen, they have been in charge of cameras now for the last six years, basically. How have they helped you . Ill vote for them as more gridlock. Thats their argument. President obama will personally endorse another 30 candidates for the house of representatives. And get this, at the state level, hell personally endorse 150 candidates for state legislative seats across 20 seats. Another democratic powerhouse was helping close the deal, senator Elizabeth Warren was out campaigning. Warren turned Donald Trumps own words against him. Get this, donald nasty women are tough. Nasty women are smart and nasty women vote. And on november 8th, we nasty women are going to march our nasty feet to cast our nasty votes to get you out of our lives forever. Its not just democratic politicians working to get out to vote. The Clinton Campaign announced celebrity concerts to help turnout performance. Clinton is backing from l luminaries, donald trump is appearing to be more isolated. Denying hes losing, though his staff admits the opposite and telling his supporters its us against the world. Its gotten so bad, trumps own running mate is now pleading with fellow republicans not to abandon them on election day. Its time to reach out to all of our republican and conservative friends and say, with one voice, its time to come home. And elect donald trump as the next president of the United States. Its time to come home and come together and do everything in our power to make sure that Hillary Clinton is never elected president of the United States of america. And donald trump and Republican Congress can move this country forward. And joining me now, republican strategist, contributor for msnbc, steve schmidt. You can understand the fluctuations of trumps polling numbers are what percentage of republicans hes getting and in the latest poll today hes getting up around 90 and still five points down. It seems there will still be some republicans filtering back coming home. The problem is, that doesnt get him over the hump. No. Look, chris, ive said for some time, the president ial race is effectively over. The question is how close secretary clinton will get to 400 electoral votes versus how close shell be to 350 electoral votes. I think what is interesting is a matter of political strategy. Secretary clinton, until the last couple of days, had kept this race focused squarely on donald trump and hadnt expanded the argument to republican members of congress and so what i would say is beware of the law of unintended consequences. The results that the democrats were heading towards was they were going to take control of the senate and they were going to do significant damage to the republican majority in the house. But moving away from donald trump and focusing on these candidates will have the effect of bringing republicans back home and for democrats, it will have the effect of putting them out of reach, i think, in a senate seat or two that they would have won if they kept the race focused squarely on donald trump. As a vote for Elizabeth Warren. So youre arguing theres a boomerang effect that focusing on donald trump and essentially focusing him depresses margins at the key races that can benefit democrats that you believe theres a kind of boomerang effect when you target them squarely as were seeing in the last two weeks that will sort of motivate some marginal set of republicans who are not voting for trump anyway. Look, focusing on trump gets them to the result they want. Shining a light on warrenism, making this an ideological contest is going to have the exact opposite political result of what they want to achieve. I think at a strategic level, its a mistake. Well, so then theres the question, too, ive always sort of anticipated these last two weeks wed see the polls tighten a bit. Usually thats what happens with races just generally. Then theres the question the most stunning fact is barack obama was up by less than a point and won by 3. 8. There was about three points that was essentially the turnout operation at that day, if you think the polls are basically right. Heres the gop chairman in nevada talking about his interactions with the Trump Campaign. Take a listen. A state with six is not going to get the same kind of attention. Im talking about interviews from the campaigns, yard signs, hats, whatever. You cant get yard signs and bumper stickers . Correct. So you called the Trump Campaign and say can i have the yard signs . I am the chairman of a swing county in a swing ppsz state. You guys need to talk to me. I need 2,000 yard signs, 10,000 bumper stickers and i dont even get a call back. Stipulating the complaints about yard signs are ubiquitous in every campaign, theres something happening here in terms of what this machine is or is not that were going to find out soon enough. We sure are. The best analogy for this is, the Trump Campaign is like a rock concert tour. It doesnt have any of the normal trappings of a president ial campaign. And the reality is, president ial campaign, chris, is like an iceberg. 10 of the mass of the iceberg is what you see above the water line. 90 of it is below the water line. And 90 of the work of a president ial campaign in these final weeks takes place below the water line. This is where your al go rit mcdata lining and targeting. Hundreds of millions of dollars that have been invested in the infrastructure of the campaign. Right. All gets turned on. The Trump Campaign has none of it. Yeah. And theres never been a campaign so inadequately prepared for the battle in the fall and but for the rnc, there would be no effort anywhere in any state but for building the data for what i suspect will eventually be trump tv. Steve schmidt, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Joined now by former texas state senator who supports hillary. Wendy, im curious what this looks like from texas. When you talk about these battleground states, particularly on the clinton side, they are quite developed and sophisticated. Texas is a state thats been hard for democrats and yet we see polls showing it very close. What does the campaign feel like in these final two weeks there on the first day of early voting in texas . I have to tell you, chris, when i went to vote here in texas, i had to stand in line and that just doesnt happen in president ial contests on the first day of early vote and it shows you that there are a huge swath of people anxious to cast their ballot in this election. Half the battle that weve faced in texas, as is the case in other red states, is the idea that many democratic voters have, that their vote just wont matter. Right. In this election, they feel like, hey, this is close. Lets show up. Lets make sure that we cast our ballots and see if we can make a difference here. Thats a really important point about the psychology of this last part of the race, which is generally if youre in states i grew up in new york state and its basically always, particularly in president ials, won by a democrat by 25, 30 points. On the other side, it could be well, if i dont get to the polling place today, we know whats going to happen in knew, yo. To the extent that this narrowing has incentivizing psychological effect on a set of voters that normally wouldnt be so motivated in a president ial . Thats absolutely true. Of course, donald trump has helped that along. Hes alienated women and latino voters and latino voters, of course, in texas being a huge voting bloc here and he has given them a tremendous incentive added to the incentive that they long have had a great appreciation and love for Hillary Clinton and that dynamic, i think, is going to evidence itself in latino turnout at the polls here. So that number should go up as well. And latino voters in texas and this is sort of the keys to one of this whole election both in the way that texas has deviated from the national gop, its a very diverse state and its because latino voters do not vote overwhelmingly for democrats in texas the way we see them do in other states and increasingly in florida. Thats been the key to the gops lock hold on that state. No question about it. We see in republican gubernatorial contests, for example, latino vote in the 30s, sometimes even 40 range. When george w. Bush was running. And a lot of that, of course, is the fact that they have a unique appeal in terms of some of the Catholic Values of that particular voting bloc. But also that so many who disagree with the values and the platform of the Republican Party have just been staying home. Wendy davis, thanks for your time. Appreciate it. Still to come, democrats have been caught redhanded rigging the polls. Whats actually happening, coming up. And filmmaker Michael Moore. Hes here to talk to me right after this twominute break. Made history when it sold foa record price of just under 30 million. And now, anothererdesbenz makehth2016 cla. G s a suoundsound steo. And to y lease the cla250 f 299 month at yr local mez dealer. Meedesbenz. Thbest or nothing. Teachers, firefighters and nurss support prop 51. 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Wikileaks also shows how john podesta rigged the polls by oversampling democrats, a Voter Suppression technique. And thats happening to me all the time. When the polls are even, when they leave them alone and do them properly, im leading. But you see these polls where they are polling democrats. Hows trump doing . Oh, hes down. They are polling democrats. The system is corrupt and its rigged and its broken and were going to change it. Donald trumps latest defense of his sinking poll numbers. He says democrats are rigging the polls against him. And that, which he was reading from prompter, lets be clear, and heres trumps proof. A 2008 email allegedly from the hacked account from john podesta and picked up by a rightwing blog and radio show. If you recall, 2008 is the year that Hillary Clinton was not her partys nominee. An activist recommending oversampling when conducting certain polling. Its standard. When pollsters want your survey, they will often try to poll more people from underrepresented groups to end up with a large enough sample of those people to draw real, aka, statistically significant conclusions. Oversampling does not affect the horse race numbers that trump is complaining about, something that trump should already know considering his trump manager, kellyanne conway, is a pollster who uses sampling from underrepresented groups. This assertion from trump and his supporters that hes losing because of a conspiracy reflects a far deeper truth, one thats been haunting the entire election. But as the countrys demographics increasingly shift, conservatives are apparently no longer a majority of the country. Republic that new reality is something many voters are still struggling to accept. Joining me now, Michael Moore, his latest film, Michael Moore in trumpland is playing in theaters and also available on itunes. In some ways, its kind of the crux of this film, right . Uhhuh. It feels to me that part of what makes this election feel so advice serially intense is that were asking, whos country is it . Who gets to say its our country and we run things . Its a real changing of the guard, which actually started, as you pointed out, many elections ago, culminated in the american people, our fellow citizens, twice electing a man whose middle name was hussein and now this is the end. This is the they should play the door song at the beginning of every trump rally this is the end because they know its the end. Thats why they are so angry and they are so out of control. Because if youve held power for so long, it was a conservative country and the nixon reagan era changed this country in such a profound way. And now thats over. We live in a liberal country. Our fellow americans take the liberal position on every single issue. Whether its prochoice, whether its women should be paid the same as men, whether its the environment. Go down the line. And last week, the last issue that americans werent liberal on, the latest poll now shows that the majority of americans are opposed to the death penalty. So they are against the death penalty, they are for legalization of decriminal lie sghags of marijuana. Go down the whole list. Its all liberal, liberal, liberal. And if youre a conservative, a republican, a trump supporter, this sounds like a cacaphony of madness. If you want to look the a the macro of it, white men have been in power for a very long time. A good 10,000 years at least. And its been a nice run, chris, that you and i and the others have had. And now its over. The thing is, on our watch, grand papi and papi handed it down to us and now the women and the gays and the blacks are taking over. Its funny, because you say that in the film along those lines, it gets a great response and its an interesting and awkward response in the room. I wonder, in the trump voters that youre talking to, you have affection for these folks or add mir rags because its people that you grew up with came from. Still live with. Still live with. That its being understood as that. When you talk about this country being taken away from white men, they are not feeling it those arent the words they would put to it. Yeah. Of the 750 people in the theater in this film where im performing a oneman show in a town thats 80 republican, 100 to 150 people are trump supporters. And not one of them walked out. It was amazing. Now, granted, a lot of them were there with their wives and girlfriends who were hillary supporters. And you make a great point. Everyone has a conservative they know, their father, brotherinlaw, uncle, your sister. And then you said, im just kidding. Not your sister. It is kind of a guy thing. In the film, the women are like this and men are sitting there like this. But at the end of it, and through humor and my sense of humor, not ridiculing them, not putting them down because they are thinking about voting for trump but understanding why they have a legitimate right to be angry. These people people i grew up with who are auto workers, people who lost their jobs and used to be part of the middle class, thats all over for t