But right now, i want to advertise what youre going to see tomorrow night. Lets put it this way. Its going to be an edgy, uneven, nasty, and unpredictable evening here on msnbc. Rachel mado and i will be giving you the results as quickly as anyone gets them. Theyll be challenging, difficult, and the night will be longer than most nights because were simply not going to know the winners of the close races that will decide who controls the u. S. Senate. Heres my prediction about the drama. To quote the great betty davis. Fasten your seat belts, its going to be a bumpy night. And this is especially the case for the democrats defending off a republican takeover. They need to beat scott brown in New Hampshire for sure. Kay hagan needs to win in North Carolina. Orman needs to win in kansas. They need two more wins in colorado, iowa, alaska and georgia, perhaps somewhere else. Its not going to be easy. More like an icebreaker jamming its way over the north pole. But it is possible and the polls show its possible. We have reporters covering some of the tightest races. We begin in overland park, kansas. Kelly, it is so fascinating that it comes down to 4950, and this one guy who nobody heard of a few months ago, orman, nobody knows what party he feels at home in, and he could decide the whole shebang sometime after tomorrow night. And hes enjoying that moment. I was with him today as he was visiting potential voters in topeka, kansas. And what he is saying, hes giving us clues, but not answers. When i asked him about which party he would align with. Hes running independent. But in the senate, you have to sit on one side or the other. Get your assignments from a leader. You have to work with a structure, the organization of the senate. And basically his answer is, he will work with the majority. But he wont say if hell sit alongside republican or sit alongside democrats. Today he said, he would not be a silent soldier for either party. He thinks that gives power to kansasans because he might be able to be a power broker, chris. The bottom line is, after all that dedeferment of the answer to your question, who is he going to vote for, harry reid, or mitch mcconnell. And my question, do the voters understand the powerful game this guy can play . Also, all the democrats are thinking hes one of them, hes going to help them get the 50 they need to win. In looking at those clues, he voted for president obama in 2008, and for romney in 2012. He lines up with abortion rights and immigration and gun background checks. But what voters are saying, they like the appeal of this fix of broken washington, end the gridlock. Thats appealing in a campaign season. When you talk to voters about how the senate works day to day, just like anybodys office is organized. You have a boss you have to report to upon. In the senate, those Party Leaders call a lot of shots. If youre not on one side or the other, it can be difficult to be effective. Orman thinks that by being in the center, and throwing his allegiance back and forth, that that would give kansasans power, when i talk to senator pat roberts, he said thats like a High School SophomoreWalking Around saying im just looking for good ideas. Sharp criticism from him. Republicans are worried about kansas because pat roberts has been in polls running really underwater and thats a real concern. And i were a republican in kansas, would i trust a guy that called me the clown car . Give me a break. Thats a phrase i use here. And there you have within independent saying the republicans are in a clown car. Im joined by luke russert in iowa. All your political skills are required. Can the democrats count on iowa, or is this too far a reach . Well, depends who you talk to, chris. But the Des Moines Register poll, the Gold Standard of polling, showed joni ernst up seven points on saturday night, was a gut punch to the braley campaign. Quinnipiac came out today showing the race tied. All that being said, some numbers have struck me in that poll, in terms of his own district, hes losing by three points. In terms of the issue, who cares more about people like me . Joni ernst, a republican with strong Tea Party Support doing better on him on medicare and social security. So definitely some stiff head winds, but the way democrats can win this, chris, they have to have the ground game they had in 2012. Republicans said theyve narrowed the gap, wont be able to bank as many early voters, and that republicans will win on election day. But democrats are confident they can get voters to the polls and make an upset occur. That all being said, the momentum is with joni ernst, 44yearold female combat veteran. Everyone in the gop is waiting for her, because they think shell be a rock star. And everyone thinks if she pulls this off, she could become maybe somebody a vp nominee for republicans. Thats how much shes regarded within their party. They want this victory, not only for control of the senate, but also to make a new perhaps National Party star. You know how somebodys going to lose, when they bring up the dewey beats truman thing. Every time you pull that out, it means youre going to lose. Tom harkin, democrat, apologize for comments last week he made about joni ernst. In this senate race, ive been watching some of these ads. And theres the sense that, joni ernst, shes really attractive, and she sounds nice. Well, i got to thinking about that. I dont care if shes as good looking as taylor swift or the nice mr. Rogers, but if she votes like michele bachmann, shes wrong for the state of iowa. This is a tough counterpunch. I was very offended that senator harkin would say that. I think its unfortunate that he and many of their party believe that you cant be a real woman if youre conservative and youre female. Again, im greatly offended about that. If my name had been john ernst, attached to my resume, senator harkin would not have said those things. Thats called an attack from a defensive position. The most powerful thing in politics when youre defending yourself and your honor, people root for you. And, chris, one thing that really comes up with this mess with harkin, what an unforced error. Today was the day that bruce braley wanted to be on message, talking about medicare, social security, talking about the health care law, which is somewhat popular here in iowa. Not able to do that, because the lead of the local newscast and everything everyones talking about on the radio and, why would harkin say such a thing . Hes since apologized to ernst. She had fun with it, quoting taylor swift, saying, i can shake it off. All that being said, not what bruce braley wanted to talk about the day that he was trying to move turnout in his way in eastern iowa. Thank you. Joining me is suzi kemp. Now we have a tricky situation down there in georgia, which i hate because it complicates things. But is this any reason to believe that if Michelle Nunn, the daughter of the former senator from georgia, if she cant win the 50 points now, any reason to believe that she could win them later on in january when they have the runoff . Well, its interesting. I actually was Walking Around with Michelle Nunn earlier today as she was out canvassing for votes in decatur, a suburb of atlanta. I asked her that very question. And she said, weve defied the prognosticators before, which suggests that i think they know it would be really very much an uphill battle. The wild card here is that libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford who you havent heard much about, because shes only polled, 3, 4, 5 digits. The assumes is those voters would be conservative and would go for perdue in the runoff. Any reason to believe a libertarian would vote for a democrat . I think folks are definitely making a distinction between Michelle Nunn and president obama and the washington democrats. I know this has been the line of attack from republicans, from Perdue Campaign from the start, but they do see Michelle Nunn as being her fathers daughter, as being more of a moderate, more of a cent rift. Even those who support perdue, have a positive image of her. Some folks, ive talked to republicans who like her, but they cant bring themselves to pull the trigger. Well said. Thank you to everybody, luke and suzi. Im joined by Steve Kornacki. I want to tell you my assumption. You can tear it to bits if you want. I think we agree, there are three ways the democrats need to begin to win the evening. One, hold on to New Hampshire. Beat scott brown there. Kay hagan has to hold on in North Carolina. And a break with an independent who will probably go with them, greg orman, we just talked about. After that, im wondering how they get the two more they need. Lets go to the big board. Lets take a look at what i think would be the most likely path for the democrats to retain the senate. Start with two assumptions. For the republicans, kentucky, looking good for mcconnell. And arkansas. Move those over. New hampshire and North Carolina, move that over. The big if in kansas, say orman wins and goes with the democrats. The republicans then at 47. This says 46. You have to remember, there are two independents, king in maine, sanders in vermont, caucusing with the dems. Thats 48. Add two. Which means the democrats are two short of what they need, they need 50. There are five states on the board right now. The bad news for democrats, in each of these five states, theyre behind in the polling. So what is the most likely way they can get there . Colorado, udall is running behind in the polling right now. Democrats will say, the last time there was a major Competitive Senate election in colorado in 2010, the 11 polls in the month leading up to the election, not a single one of them put the democrat ahead and yet they won by two points on election day. They say they missed the latino vote. Two major variables. Lets say the polls have missed that in colorado and democrats can pick it up. Where else do they look . I think the next most likely one, believe it or not, is alaska. When they talk about states being tough to poll, they are talking about alaska. Weve seen polls with begich of ten points, and polls that put his challenger ahead by a single digit. This is a state where if begich wins comfortably, we wouldnt be shocked. If he loses it by a big margin, we wouldnt be shocked. But hes shown life. You got 48 now, you got two independents and joe biden to break the tie, i think that is the most likely way they can get to 50. Thats really good. Let me ask you about probabilities. It seems to me that those are all possible. The trick is, they all have to happen. Thats the tricky part, right . Like we say, you have three other sitting here right now. Iowa, like being luke was saying, the quinnipiac poll they were talking up today. Theres these runoff scenarios right there. But what it really comes down to for democrats, New Hampshire, North Carolina, kansas. Absolutely mustwins. And then basically they need to pull off two upsets. They need upset in colorado and probably alaska. Theyre going to need to get lucky. Probably not going to get lucky, but ive seen luckier things. To be honest, we know the business. Its hard to poll alaska, for example. And the accent on the progressive voters showing up in colorado, which is purple. Its a hard state to figure. There are suburban women who are prochoice, cultural conservativism, but theres a lot of smart people who read the newspapers that could show up. They did it for michael bennett. And thats the key in colorado, to keep in mind. Why we say theres some uncertainty there with the polling, its not necessarily about showing up in colorado anymore, because this is the first time that colorado has universal mailin balloting. So every voter in the state has been mailed a ballot. They dont need to drive down to the school or the polling place. They just need to be moved at some point in the last few weeks, to check a name off and put that in the mail. Democrats are saying the exact kind of voter youre talking about, maybe wasnt going to go to a great effort to go to the polling station, but will put the thing in the mailbox. This sounds like a republican horror story. So easy to vote. When do they have to arrive . Do they have to be datemarked . They have through tomorrow by mail. You mean, the mail would get there in two or three days, with snail mail . Thats right. And alaska could take a while to get in. Believe it or not, were talking about this in the context of this election. Its crabbing season in alaska and there are hundreds of fishermen who are out to sea and they have until the middle of november to get their ballots back. Thanks so much, steve. Nobody does it like you. Coming up, whats a stake tomorrow night . Thats a big one. What does it mean for president obama if the democrats lose control . Or keep control . Ted cruz is talking about what hes bringing. Hes out for trouble. What can we expect from the republicans, including ted cruz, the joe mccarthy of today. This is hardball, a place for politics. You probably know xerox as the company thats all about printing. But did you know we also support hospitals using Electronic Health records for more than 30 million patients . Or that our Software Helps over 20 million smartphone users remotely configure email every month . Or how about processing nearly 5 billion in electronic toll payments a year . In fact, todays xerox is working in surprising ways to help companies simplify the way work gets done and life gets lived. With xerox, youre ready for real business. Tomorrow night Rachel Maddow and i with live coverage with all the results, including the victories and the concession speeches as we find out who will control the u. S. Senate. Plus all the hot governors races on a night that could see a Record Number of incumbent governors knocked out of office. Thats tomorrow night right here on msnbc. So ally bank really has no hidden fees on savings accounts . Thats right. Its just that im worried about you know hidden things. Ok, whys that . No hidden fees, from the bank where no branches equals great rates. Dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future. You. Thank you for being my hero and my dad. Military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa Auto Insurance could be one of them. If youre a current or former military member or their family, get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Welcome back to hardball. This is whats at stake if democrats lose the u. S. Senate. Ted cruz said the first order of business should be a series of hearings on president obama himself. Quote, looking at the abuse of pow power. The executive abuse, the lawlessness that has pervaded this administration. If democrats lose, heres what republicans will control, the Senate Judiciary committee. Grassley would be a major figure in Supreme Court nominations. Hes prolife and voted against sonya sod mire for the Supreme Court. And inhofe, a science denier, he does not believe in Climate Change at all. Hell be chairing the environment committee. John mccain will chair the aredd services committee. And back when he was running for president , he used to sing the song bomb bomb iran. We were misled, there were supposed three protests and then something sprang out of that, an assault sprang out of that and that was easily ascertained that was not the facts. With all due respect, the fact is, we had four dead americans. Was it because of a protest, was it because of guys out for a walk who decided to go kill some americans. At this point, what difference does it make . Both you gentlemen have had the honor and the guts to run for office. Joe, i want to ask you about the power of the Sub Committee which ron johnson will control. Ive been told thats the only chair on the hill where the chairman and his majority members dont have to get the okay. They have the rights to use subpoena. Thats where the game plays to me. Your thoughts . Well, ive seen the committee on the house side, the i saw what it was like when republicans ran it, and when democrats ran it. You could put a mirror up to it. Obviously, the subpoena power is important. I think more importantly ive heard about ted cruz. Ted cruz is an outsider in the Republican Caucus inside the senate itself. Republicans understand. Most republicans i talk to understand, if all they do is obstruct in 2015, theyll lose the big election, the big prize in 2016. Theyve lost five out of six of the last president ial elections. They have an Approval Rating far below that of barack obama. They have to put points up on the board over the next two years. Or theyll be the party of no, and they wont win in 2016. Most republicans understand that. I dont know if ted cruz does or not. But i dont think it really matters at this point. Let me go to harold. It seemed to me the party has made mistakes. Back in 1947, after the long new deal period, they said every day started with a prayer and ended with a probe. Are they going to make that mistake again . Joe said it well. If they do, it will be two years where the paralysis and arresting narrative that grip washington will perpetuate itself. Assume they win, if they get the president trade promotion authority, but senator reed has been unwilling to give it to him. If republicans offer a narrow tax reform bill and offer some Infrastructure Spending for the president , can you imagine the start they could get off to. The question really comes, can you make ted cruz, to joes point, the distinct island of one . If you dont do that, its problematic for republicans, and for the country. How does the fight go . Progressives dont want to hear it, but good possibility republicans will control the senate. Heres the question, how do they mak