Region from ukraine in march and he looked every bit the conquering leader shouting out hello, comrades, to neighboring ships and promising the crowd that 2014 will be the year when the people of crimea firmly decided to be together with russia. The u. S. And its allies had a very different take on putins visit. They called it escalating tensions. Nalt owes secretary general called it inappropriate and white house jay carney echoed that sentiment on msnbc friday. President putins presence in crimea is certainly not helpful. The International Community, including the United States, does not recognize the illegal annexation by russia of crimea, part of the sovereign nation of ukraine. Putins visit to crimea came just hours after a thundering victory day parade in moscow with russias military might on full display. Some 11,000 soldiers and 150 military vehicles. Among the First Vehicles to enter red square, an armored personnel carrier flying the crimean flag. Across russia and the soviet republics, victory day is a day of Intense National pride. A day to mark the end of what the russians call the great patriotic war, and to remember the Staggering Number of soviet citizens who lost their lives in world war ii, as many as 27 million. Ukraine knows those losses well. It was one of the most devastated soviet republics after world war ii. For some ukrainian nationalist, it was not just the fight against germany but also a fight against soviet domination. According to the cia as many as eight million ukrainians died at the hands of both german and soviet forces during world war ii. Echos of that history, that resistance to domination from moscow was evident at the start of this Current Crisis in ukraine. Now, so much has happened, its hard to believe that it really all began over something as boring sounding as a trade agreement, but in november when ukraines former president abandoned a trade deal with the European Union and chose instead to forge closer ties with russia, it was enough to send protesters who were leery of russias growing influence in ukraine into the streets of kiev. In less than two weeks, the clashes between police and protesters turned violent. By january, the clashes had turned deadly. The pressure on the ukrainian president to step down was mounting, and on february 22nd, the Ukrainian Parliament voted to dismiss him. It didnt take russia long to respond to that show of defiance. Less than a week later masked gunmen seized government buildings in crimea, a region in Eastern Ukraine with a Large Russian population. International condemnation quickly followed. We are now deeply concerned by reports of military movements taken by the Russian Federation inside of ukraine. Any violation of ukraines sovereignty and territory would be deeply destabilizing. By march 1st, less than a week of anonymous gunmen seizing buildings, russia had taken over crimea without firing a shot. President obama responded by ordering sanctions. But so far that has done little to deter russia or prorussian separatists in ukraine. There was a glimmer of hope when international talks reduced an agreement aimed at pulling russia and Eastern Ukraine back from the brink of war. We agreed today that all illegal armed groups must be disarmed. That all illegally seized buildings must be returned to their legitimate owners and all illegally occupied streets, squares and other Public Places in ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated. We now know that that didnt quite work out as planned, prompting yet another threat of sanctions from president obama just two weeks ago. Collectively, us and the europeans have said that so long as russia continues down the path of provocation rather than trying to resolve this issue peacefully and deescalating, there are going to be consequences and those consequences will continue to grow. Since russias annexation of crimea, tensions in other parts of ukraine have escalated. Prorussian protesters clash with Ukrainian Military and tens of thousands of Russian Troops remain camped out on the border. The violence even marred victory day celebrations. Fierce and deadly clashes broke out friday over control of a Police Station in southEastern Ukraine. With all that, the escalating violence, the defiance by russia, you can understand why the International Community did a collective doubletake this week when Vladimir Putin suddenly announced that he was withdrawing his troops from the border with ukraine. He even signalled russia would accept ukraines president ial election if parts of Eastern Ukraine were given autonomy. That was on wednesday. So far the white house says it has seen no signs of Russian Troops retreating. By thursday, putin had gone from talking about the possibility of peace to showing his readiness for war, personally overseeing a massive military exercise that included russias nuclear forces. But what happens next between russia and ukraine may not be entirely up to Vladimir Putin. This week he urged prorussian militants in Eastern Ukraine to call off a referendum seeking autonomy for parts of the region but the militants have vowed to go ahead with the vote as planned tomorrow. Something the u. S. State department strongly opposes. Our view is that their attempt to create further division and disorder in the country. Im not going to make a prediction of what well do. Obviously we believe that these should not be held and theyre not legitimate. Our focus remains on the may 25th elections. For the people in ukraine, it is all about tomorrow, at least for now. For the latest on the situation on the ground, here is nbc news chief Foreign Correspondent, richard engel. Reporter melissa, violence is continuing here today in ukraine, mostly centered on the Southern City of mariopol. Yesterday Ukrainian Forces moved in heavy to try to drive out prorussian separatists from a Police Station it occupied in the center of town. The ukrainian soldiers used armored personnel carriers, rocketpropelled grenades and pushed the separatists from the Police Station, but in doing so, they set the Police Station on fire, killed at least seven people and turned the center of mariopol into a war zone. Devry lens is continuing there with reports of more gunfire. It is this environment that people will vote in the referendum over the weekend to decide if they want Eastern Ukraine to remain part of ukraine, to stay loyal to the government in kiev, or declare independence. Most people, most countries around the world do not recognize this referendum. They say it is illegal. They say it is a move that is orchestrated by moscow and it does seem quite clearly supported by moscow, even though Vladimir Putin a few days ago called on separatists to postpone this referendum. Then yesterday putin shows up in crimea. He paid this surprise visit, arriving on a boat. He likes grand entrances. And he said that 2014 will be remembered as the time when the russian communities decided to join back up with the motherland, and he said that all nations of the world should respect russias selfinterests, should respect russias rights to, in his words, correct historic injustice. And as you know, he believes that the collapse of the soviet union was a historic injustice and it appears that mr. Putin is trying to restore some of that soviet glory. Melissa. That was nbc news chief Foreign Correspondent richard engel. Joining me now on set is colonel jack jacobs, msnbc military analyst and a medal resip yengt. So nice to have you here. Good morning, melissa. I know last week you believed we were on the precipice of an escalation we can call war. I think theres a civil war going on right now. Its at a relatively low level but could escalate very, very quickly. Dont forget also that the former soviet republics now free of the soviet union are very much concerned themselves. It would be very, very easy for this thing, first of all, to boil over into much more violence, especially after the election that is supposed to be held, no matter what the results are. And secondally spill over to other republics. We have troops in poland to demonstrate were really concerned. This has the potential for being really, really messy. So given that that potential exists and given that at least initially observers were saying that putins goal here was simply to annex crimea with as little cost as possible, what is a benefit to putin at this point to continue to destabilize ukraine . The last guy in the world to ask that question is putin himself. Seriously, the way he operates, and we have it on pretty Good Authority that this is the way he operates because weve been watching him for a long, long time, is that he does thing really in an ad hoc fashion. Its not like a bunch of advisers get together and start at the end and work backwards, whats our objective, how are we going to get there, these are our options. Thats not how he does things. He takes a look at what has just happened and then responds to it. This is good news and bad news. The bad part of the bad news is that theres no way that we can get around him because we dont know ultimately what his objective is. At the very quibeginning we sai oh, yes, all he wants is crimea. Once he seizes crimea, it makes it look much more attractive to foment some sort of discord in the eastern part of ukraine and eventually annex that too. He will if he can. He wont if he doesnt think he can do it. Let me go to that then. In other words, it seems possible that he actually did begin with an initial interest just in crimea. Maybe seeing the relative success of it now has these broader, potentially imperial plans on it. Given that the main reaction at this point of the United States is a sanctionsbased one and given that this is at least by some accounts someone who operates in a relatively ad hoc and very sort of powerful, masculinist, arrive on a boat kind of way, how effective will sanctions be in addressing that sense that in fact he has to push back . Theyre not now and they wont be. When you think about what were sanctioning, who were sanctioning, you can realize that its not going to have very much effect. Second, were not supported by the very countries we need to have support in order to get it done. The e. U. But particularly germany and france have enormous ties to russia and they have no interest whatsoever they would like it all to go away if it possibly can. Theyre not supportive of what wed like to do and that is put wideranging sanctions on russia. Theyre not interested in doing that. And they have argued strenuously that we dont do that. So no effect now and its not going to have an effect in the future. So here we are halfway through 2014. Does it turn out that as a president ial candidate, former governor mitt romney was right and that it is russia that was our great global challenger . Well, its a great global challenge, but i dont think that russia is our great Global National security challenge. If you think about all the other places where we have real serious National Security problems, russia pales in comparison. Take a look at the middle east generally. Take a look at the concern that saudi arabia has with whats going on in syria and so on. And with iran. Take a look at iran. How about the far east with whats happening between china and everybody else. Our allies an friends, trading partners in the far east are very much concerned about what china is doing. And for my money, i think still the most dangerous country on the face of the earth is pakistan. Culturally diverse. The government has very little control over whats taking place inside the country. And they have nuclear weapons. A very, very bad combination. Yeah, russia is a problem and im very much concerned about whats happening in former russian satellites, but its not the biggest problem weve got. I so appreciate you setting that in context as you always do. Youre always welcome here at the table. Thank you for being here today. Thank you to colonel jack jacobs for your insight and expertise as always. Up next, a new study out of notre dame that made us do a double take. We absolutely did not see this one coming. s not the limit yor hard earned cash back card. Its not the confused by rotating categories card. 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