He was shotting an intruder. And it is cinco de mayo. The fifth of may celebrating the mexican the mexican army over the French Forces in the battle of puebla back in 1862. Its an excuse to drink for louis. You have to drink the whole thing and eat the worm. That is it for way too early. Morning joe starts right now. And im feeling sorry, believe it or not, for the speaker of the house as well. These days the House Republicans actually give john boehner a harder time than they give me. Which means orange really is the new black. That was one of the really good ones. Good morning, everyone. Speaking of orange, look at that sunrise over new york city. Monday morning. May 5th. Welcome to morning joe, everybody. Thats an orange crush right there. Yes, it is. On the set we have john heilemann. Good to have you here. Hello, heilemann. Anything going on with you . Not much. Celebrating the nets victory yesterday, baby. Game seven. Unbelievable. Well talk. Visiting professor at nyu, former democratic congressman harold ford jr. Professor. And in washington, senior Political Editor and White House Correspondent for the Huffington Post sam stein. We also have editor for the Washington PostDavid Ignatius. With all going on in ukraine, glad youre in early this morning. An eventful weekend. Willie, happy belated birthday for you. Thank you. It was a great saturday. It was a derby birthday combo. How much bourbon did you drink . You mean bottles . You should have seen the hat he was wearing. It was a fascinator. You guys in washington, you were at the correspondents president was good. President was great. Thought he was funny. His performance skills are very high when it comes to these events, i think. Has that dry sense of humor. Hes got the great second beat on those jokes. Well stay on it. More of the jokes at the White House Correspondents dinner. We cannot believe what these olympic athletes do. Death defying feats. Havent seen someone pull a 180 that fast since rand paul disinvited that nevada rancher from this dinner. As a general rule, things dont
end well if the sentence starts let me tell you something i know about the negro. Just a tip for you. Dont start your sentence that way. Now that its 2014, washington is obsessed on the midterms. Folks are saying that with my sagging poll in numbers, my fellow democrats dont want me campaigning with them. I dont think thats true although i did notice the other day that sasha needed a speaker at career day and she invited bill clinton. Washington seems more dysfunctional than ever. Gridlock has gotten so bad in this town, you have to wonder, whatd we do to piss off Chris Christie so bad . That was a good line. Okay. So that was joel mchale. Well get to that in a second. Hes star of the community. Did he talk about Chris Christie . He sure did. Lets roll it. I know its been a long night, but i promise that tonight will be both amusing and over quickly just like Chris Christies president ial bid. I got a lot of these tonight, so buckle up, governor christie. Excuse me. Extender buckle up. All right. Governor, do you want bridge jokes or size jokes . I got a bunch of both. I can go half and half. I know you like a combo platter. Now, i get that. Im sorry for that joke, governor christie. I didnt know i was going to tell it. But i take full responsibility for it. Whoever wrote it will be fired. But the buck stops here. So i will be a man and own up to it just as soon as i get to the bottom of how it happened, because i was unaware it happened until just now. Im appointing a commission of me to investigate the joke i
just told. And if i find any wrong doing on my part, i assure you i will be dealt with. I just looked into it. It turns out im not responsible for it. Justice has been served. Okay. Joel mchale was adorable, i think, first of all. Good guy. And by the way, Chris Christie not only laughing at the jokes at the party, but was laughing after the party. He and mchale were together. People on tv thought it was a cheap shot. Chris christie and mary pat were laughing and posed for pictures with him. And we kind of had a run in with him. You know what . Theres a we were comparing book notes. Willie, as you know, im selling a lot of books in New Hampshire. And i was selling more. He was commenting on how many books im selling in New Hampshire. I said im selling more books in New Hampshire than you will ever sell. This went on for a good eight
minutes. Its publishing trash talk. It is. Both of us are men of letters and both of us are taken by how much the good people of New Hampshire love to read. They love to read. Are you monitoring the independent book sales at store by store basis. Duh. Of course we are. Of course we are. Dropped by one in concord this weekend. We were waiting to take pictures and this happened. Willie, this went on for, like, eight minutes. Seriously. The book talk . The book trash talk. Wow. I changed to samsung. I had new numbers. Mika runs up to Chris Christie and tried to explain it. Like you cant talk in shorthand like that. So we went up and mika went up and said im texting you, why arent you returning your calls. He said im not getting them. She explained it was the phone. I said mika always thought it was the phone. I said you were a really big skinned jerk and that was probably why. And he laughed. So hes good . Mika had the wrong number. Im telling you, the drugs, you cant see. Even a big screen like this. Its hard to see the big screen. You know . Just stop. She was sending texts to chris cross instead of Chris Christie. Can i get their number by the way . Sure. More of those photos can be seen at vanity fair portraits. Theres our son. Whos that . Thats ronan. Our handsy son. Hes a naughty child. And there was a eric holder has decided that youre going to run for office and hes going to take your job. So we did oh, yeah. He said why dont we do a freaky friday switch. Here he is. He wants it to be morning eric and he and mika were trying out for that cable news. You know, hes the former attorney general, shes a former whatever you are former. Whatever. Thanks, guys. Then morning eric. What do you think . That would be a great poster. Id watch that show. Of course youd watch that show. Title it with holder somehow. She suggested morning ric. Take the e off. I dont know. Vanity fair party was fun. The Correspondents Dinner was, i think, a success. I guess. Lets move on. Im bored. Okay. For the reason now that we have such an elegant panel, were go i think to start with ukraine where violence is spreading deeper with clashes now erupting in that countrys Third Largest city. Hundreds of prorussian militants stormed Police Headquarters on sunday demanding that fellow separatists be
released. The men smashed open the door of the Police Station and broke windows and security cameras. Five dozen militants were freed with little resistance from police. The men were being held in connection to deadly reactions on friday which left many dead. It was the worst violence in that country since february. The u. S. Ambassador to ukraine is now demanding an investigation into the increasing violence and if moscow is behind it. Meanwhile, michael mcfaul, the former u. S. Ambassador to russia is warning that russia could be in the final stages of preparing for a full scale invasion. David ignatius, the Ukrainian Government says its protecting its own citizens from prorussia militias. Now we hear russia saying they have to protect russianspeaking people from the government. What are we seeing this morning . Were seeing the inability of
any government to maintain safety and security in ukraine. Which means that the violence is getting worse and the calls for some kind of intervention are growing. The obama administrations biggest hope is that somehow if ukraine can stumble through to elections on may 25 when therell be a new government and a sense the administration hopes of legitimacy for a government that could crack down, restore orders, defend its borders, et cetera. And the terrible irony of the russians demanding safety for these poor protesters in Eastern Ukraine. Many think the russians have been encouraging the protesters to grab the airport, a television tower. Now theyre demanding someone maybe even the russians come in and restore order. Its been increasingly chaotic demonstration. Its shows the weakness of the Ukrainian Government. Above all, it illustrates the
russians basic Comfort Level with this chaotic ukraine on the way to elections on may 25th. Okay. Im going to grab a thought that i read recently about the situation in ukraine. Especially as it pertains to american leadership. Because some can put this as black and white, america is not strong. The president is not strong enough. But i read recently that its sort of like getting in a fight when youre trying to get a divorce. Its not that easy. Because you want to make your point without hurting the whole situation, the whole family. How the United States should use its enormous power to deter Vladimir Putin from invading Eastern Ukraine just as he invaded crimea a month ago is the question thats really haunting washington. We had a map in the Washington Post over the weekend that showed the battle lines for a war between russia and ukraine. I havent seen anything like that since history books, you
know, after the fall of berlin in 1945. Its just stunning to see that. The administration keeps saying when you push them that its policy is to make it so costly for putin to keep pushing in ukraine, that hell think twice. Hell stop. Of course as you know, the ruble and the russian stock market have gone up since weve things are beginning to no, since we put the sanctions in place. These sanctions are so insignificant that theyre not going to deter somebody like putin, are they . You know, joe, the recovery in the russian currency and markets is after a significant fall. So in absolute terms, its not a great period for russia. I think it is fair to say that obama has been holding in reserve partly because europe is not comfortable yet with heavy duty sanctions. The kind of sanctions that would hit the export industries,
principally energy and weapons. If the russians move, if their tanks roll across the frontier in ukraine, i would guess president obama would have merkel with him in imposing sanctions that would make things hurt for russia. But by that time its too late. The tanks were already in. So no question that obamas taken a goslow approach to this. All right. Some political news now. New indicators show rough waters ahead for the democrats in the midterms. A Pugh Research usa today poll shows republicans have their biggest advantage in two decades. Numbs shows voters shifting away from democrats over the last six months. A majority of voters say the president isnt a factor in their vote, but the number of democrats voting in support of the president s record has fallen 16 points since the 2010 elections. The number of republicans voting
against his agenda has increased. Still when compared to this point when george w. Bush was president , the president s approval is nine points higher. Voters have showed a deep desire for change during both president s second term saying its time for different policies. John heilemann, we have a flurry of polls. Willie and i were talking about this last week, two weeks ago. Democrats looking better this past week. Republicans looking better. Now this pew poll suggests big trouble. Also on the usa today, health spending. This is going to drive the first half of the week as far as the debate goes. Health spending up the fastest in 34 years. And in the lead, the usa today blames obamacare. Look. We saw three polls last week, right . We started early last week with
the abc Washington Post poll. Then the other poll that seemed kipt. And now this poll. Weve had three in a row now from big organizations with big sample sizes who have good records that suggest that maybe what happened with the obamacare 8 million number was more of a blip and that were actually settling into what i think a lot of people thought the prevailing trend lines would be which is republicans are in a strong position in the midterms and obamacare is going to be by no means a winning on the macro level, not a winning issue for democrats. Theyll have to be fighting for their lives in general and on that issue Going Forward. Harold, its only may as you and i know more happens in campaigns in six days than let alone six days. But you look atted t the headli. Biggest advantage for republicans in two decades. What did democrats do six months
out . Another headline talks about the violence in ukraine. I think theres a sense if you have an everyday hardworking american and you are struggling and working to support their family and you read the political headlines and trends out of washington, just dont bode well for the party in charge. Second, you consider the states where you have these elections. States that romney performed well in. States where the Health Care Plan and some of the other things a president is doing or has done is less popular than they are in other states. And finally, i think you showed the numbers between george w. Bush and the president in terms of the approval ratings. Remember in 2006, democrats cleaned up. If youre democrats, even though its only may, you have to begin to think now how do you shift a bit on things that would help you . Were starting to see keystone, harry reid trying to help. Help some democrats around. Helps us as home on manufacturing. Helps Foreign Policy. But you know, willie, its youre starting to see harry reid and youre starting to see other democrats talk about keystone. This energy issue is going to be a big issue because its about jobs. For once its not the republicans the base thats pulling them away from where Middle America is. Democrats have a lot of challenges. They do. Maybe harry reids talking about it, but theres still a lot of democrats who are not going to move on the keystone pipe line. Maybe theres some deal to use it as a chip for Something Else. The president could just do that. Thats right. Sam, youre looking at these numbers. The piece in the usa today says these numbers show the strongest tilt towards republicans in the last couple decades. Including stronger than before 2010. Republican strategists if you talk to them privately, theyre
feeling good about this obviously about holding the house but taking the senate as well. Yeah. I mean, ive said it before and ill say it again. The best thing the democrats have going for them right now is they had a huge wave loss in 2010. Theres fewer seats for them to lose in the house than they would otherwise. The house is a problem when you have so many seats in states that went to romney that holding the majority seems tenuous. That said, looking at National Polls is silly. Each individual race has its own dynamic. For example, in arkansas where you would imagine is democrat would be really suffering under the burdens of the health care law, a poor economy, sagging approval numbers, mark potter is not that poorly positioned. You do have to look to respect to the senate state by state. One thing id add with Health Care Spending which is a scary headline is that the charts early on when they were on
kbbcare suggested a very spike in 2014 because millions more people were going to get coverage and spend on health care at the time. We have to wait and see what happens after this spike to see if they continue going down which they were before. It could just be tied to the bad economy. But if the recent trends continue and we have more Health Care Spending, then were in real trouble basically. All right. Were going to keep talking about this. Obviously more on ukraine and Foreign Policy straight ahead with David Ignatius. Oh, yeah. Coming up in the 7 00 hour, Chuck Schumer is here on set. He brought with him an interesting chart on the big fight over raising the minimum wage. Im going to debate him on that chart, the minimum wage, and ask if he would trade keystone for a rise in minimum wage. Help workers on both sides of that equation. Ill see if he loves the working man as much as i do. I want to see if his chart is more interesting than rattners. I dont think if thats possible. Also a new investigation into the benghazi attacks. Im also going to ask him what happened in ireland when jerry adams was arrested. A strange move considering where the peace talks have been going. Then live in our 8 00 hour, senator joe manchin is here in the studio and senator tim kaine on his backing for hillary 2016. Willie and i was what did we say this was . Yeah. Full throated. Yes. Okay. All right. Thank you for being there with me, willie. Up next, a tragic circus accident leaves a group of performers in Critical Condition. Also ben affleck caught counting cards in las vegas . Well explain it on morning papers. And jim gaffigan joins us on set. I dont know if you can tell by my beard, but im fat. I dont know what happened. All i did was eat constantly and then boom im fat. Seems unfair. But first if it was only that simple, heres bill kairns with a check on the forecast. Good stuff, you guys. We got done with a pretty nice weekend on the eastern seaboard. Rain showers in new england yesterday. The heat was the real story, though. Everyw