Ower of points can do for your business. Learn more at chase. Com ink first, the shootings in minnesota and baton rouge. The protests. Then the targeting of police by the shooter here. An act not just of demonstrated violence, but of racial hatred. This is the deepest fault lines of our democracy have suddenly been exposed, perhaps even widened. We wonder if an Africanamerican Community that feels unfairly
targeted by police and Police Departments that feel unfairly maligned for doing their jobs, can ever understand each others experience. But dallas, im here to say, we must reject such despair. Im here to insist that we are not as divided as we seem. And i know that, because i know america. I know how far weve come against impossible odds. I know well make it, off a what ive experienced in my own life. And all the people said, amen. That was a pretty extraordinary day yesterday. Good morning, its wednesday, july 13th. Mika has the morning off. With us, weve got Mike Barnicle. Also, nicolle wallace, Donny Deutsch, and Steve Rattner with us. In indianapolis, weve got mark halperin. And in washington, katty kay
along with jonathan capehart. Nicole, i want to go to you first. Talk about the memorial yesterday, but mainly talk about the two president s, the two president s who have been scorned and ridiculed and blasted over the last eight years over so many different issues. Talk about barack obama and george w. Bush yesterday. Well, i took in both those speeches, and your piece, and all three of them made me cry in a way that was not just their words and not just their moment, but just everything thats lost in the rancor of 2016. And you know, and whats our role in it, and why did these two men go to the same place on the same day and Say Something so much more moving and so much more important and so much more connected to what were doing than either of the people that want the jobs they have and had . And it just made me wonder about how disconnected all these conversations. How were motivated by angry and not on our knees in the face of this tragedy. And i think your piece did the most justice to what i watched yesterday. Mike barnicle, barack obama yesterday sounded like the barack obama in boston, 2004. Where he said, were not as divided as everybody believes. And that is i have long believed that these divisions are artificial on so many fronts. We have a lot of challenges, we certainly are a lot of challenges still when it comes the race and our politics, but we are not divided as we seem. Ive been around this country over the past 20 years, i know you have. I dont see a divided america
whether im in the reddest of red states or bluest of blue states. I dont see it. Because its not there. I agree with you, joe. Yesterday, both president s spoke to us in a manner that we needed to hear after this Roller Coaster of a ride weve all been on politically for the past eight or nine months. And they needed and did their jobs of just lowering the temperature in this country and focusing on what is truly, truly the most important thing, defining who we are. We heard yesterday who we were. And we needed to hear it from both of these men. And we did. And well be talking much more about the Memorial Service coming up. First, lets go to some new polls that just crossed, swing state polls. If you remember yesterday, there is a bit of a back and forth between a couple of us on whether this race was a blowout or this race was tight. Ive got to tell you, every swing state poll ive seen suggests this race is tight. Lets get some polls that just now crossed the wire in swing states. Its quinnipiac polls and we start in florida, where clinton enjoyed an eightpoint lead last month. Now in florida, donald trump leads 4239 . Well get these graphics up in a minute. But trump now up 42 to 39 . And in ohio, it was tied three weeks ago, at 40 points each. Now its clinton, 41, trump, 41. In pennsylvania, clinton just had a onepoint lead in pennsylvania. Now donald trump ahead, 43 to 41 . Now, heres another poll from another polling company, monmouth university. Shows donald trump with is slight edge on Hillary Clinton in ohio. Trump takes the lead and all the people gasp. 44 to Hillary Clintons 42 . Well within the margin of error. 6 supporting libertarian gary johnson. With iowa voters under 50 years of age, with iowa voters under 50 years of age, donald trump has a 19point lead. 51 to clintons 32 . Meanwhile, the Republican Polling Firm harper finds clinton solidly ahead in colorado, 45 to 38 , with 14 picking somebody else. You know, mark, during the republican primaries, i would hold up newspapers and put the dates up, reminding people, yes, yes, we have a long ray to go before iowa and New Hampshire. But at some point, it started to say to december and january. Were not to the conventions yet, but were getting pretty close to where it actually
matters. And here we are, you know, in july. July the 12th. It aint nothing. Donald trump is leading in some of of these vital swing states. Maybe mitt romney was this strong going into his convention. I certainly dont remember that. Well, let me say a few things about the numbers. First of all, its obviously extraordinary good timing for donald trump, to go into his Convention Even or ahead in these three battleground states is a huge shot in the arm for him in terms of momentum and him picking a running mate. Trumps high command has said for weeks, do not look at these nos National Polls. Were doing better in the swing states, in the states that will get us to why are day doing better in the swing states . One in every i know, but why is trump doing well in pennsylvania . Why is he doing well in ohio . Why is he ahead in florida with all the hispanic voters who should be flooding to hillary
clinton . I think its relatively easy to say in pennsylvania and ohio, where his economic nationalist message, some say populist, some say nationalist message is going to do well. Florida has been a president ial blue state, purple state. But as you know, joe, at the state level, its been trending republican. Its solid right. And the other thing ill say is remember, these numbers come, and its just one set of polls, although as you point out, there are other swing state polls showing roughly the same trend. This comes after couple of weeks where people have said trump has been a disaster. Where trump has performed poorly. Its possible and you see this in the honesty and integrity numbers in these quinnipiac polls. Its possible that voters focused less on Donald Trumps performance and more on the fact that the fbi director said Hillary Clinton behaved in a very irresponsible way. Right. And that this may be another instance in which republicans are going to say, maybe trump knows what hes doing. The last thing ill say is, the clinton folks responding to
these polls are saying, this is the good news for us here is, anyone we need to convince that this is a race and donald trump could be the next president of the United States, these polls will help convince our base, we need to be engaged in this race. Because trump is in this game. If those numbers are real and hes going to be competitive in his three states, this is game on, on the eve of the republican convention. And Steve Rattner, its the clinton insiders who have always believed trump could win. Theyre confident, but have always believed that could happen. It also does come on the heels of just an absolutely blistering press conference by the fbi director. Look, i think donald trump may not have had his best two weeks in terms of how hes responded to the shootings or this or that. But Hillary Clinton has been through a really rough two weeks in terms of whats been said about her. It certainly should look, no
politician, as nicole knows well, ever takes things for granted. You fight like youre 20 points behind, all the time. But a couple of things, first, i dont think you can completely ignore the National Polls. There hasnt been a president in national history, with the exception of the 2000 election, which is very controversial, where you have lost the national vote, but somehow cobbled together 260 votes in the electoral votes. And it was the purple poll you talked a little bit about yesterday, when you look inside some of the demographics, colle collegeeducated whites, which the clintons have always carried its fascinating, because you look at the demographics and say, it just doesnt add up. Im sure nate cohn with the times, people at the Washington Post will be trying to figure out these numbers. Where the support comes from. They certainly arent coming from some traditional groups. Donny deutsch, last month, in the state of florida, honest and trustworthy numbers. Donald trump was at 43. Hillary clinton is at 41. This month, the numbers are donald trump, 50 honest and trustworthy. Hillary clinton, 37 honest and trustworthy. And theres a tenpoint gap in ohio. 47 , donald trump, honest and trustworthy. 37 , Hillary Clinton, honest and trustworthy. That fbi report, the entire story, it just couldnt have come at a worse time for the clinton brand, could it . No. And obviously, were seeing that in the polls. And i still believe that the honest and trustworthy number in todays universe doesnt matter that much. You dont think honest and trustworthy i think that the average person on both sides, you know what, either one of these
candidates im going to do whatever it takes to get elected me. It comes back to, who is better for me . Who is going to keep me safe from isis . Whos going to help me hang on to my job . And this is the can i just stop you on the first two for a second. Whos going to help protect my family against isis . Donald trump leads in a lot of those polls. Not all of them. I saw one where he was losing a couple weeks ago. But a lot of them, traditionally. Whos going to help me get a job . A lot more americans believe donald trump will if you look at the polls weve seen over the past six months. Great. Third point, this is the one that doesnt necessarily show up in a poll. If you go on the premise were all frightened. Were fractured here and frightened globally. At the end of the day, more than anything, our commander in chief has to be a unifier and you picture both of our candidates up there, the backdrop of donald
trump saying, black lives matter is divisive. Hillary clinton, you look at her, o, theres going to be something stilted that happens up there. But i think the uniter quality is going to go to clinton. And the one thing donald trump its a very different dance through the primaries to right now. Everything about primary win is being divisive. But right now against the backdrop of this country, we need a uniter. And donald trump, i dont think theres any polls that say this, but you cant score any lower on unification than the message that man is sending out. Senator coso, nicole, i was saying, how could this be happening, hes had a terrible two, three, four weeks, but apparently hes righted the ship since dallas. Hes certainly put together what many people believe, if they wouldnt traditionally define them as great days, certainly five of his best days in a general election campaign. On message. And hooes been on message. I said that sort of glibly yesterday, hes strung together three good days since dallas. I would actually he deserves credit going back to the speech in pennsylvania about trade. Hes been on his message for about two weeks. And i think thats also reflective he went to pennsylvania, to philadelphia, i think, gave a speech about trade. That was the core message that goth him the nomination. I will say, a lot of snide people that were watching that and most of the people watching it were snide, even commenting on the aluminum the garbage yeah, the garbage crumpled up behind him. Missed the fact that that was a radical speech. Rate. It was radical because it basically kicked democrats in the tail and it kicked the
republican establishment in the tail. And the chamber of commerce. And the chamber of commerce. The voter in our party gives a hoot about the washington, d. C. Lobbying group of the chamber of commerce. I like and respect them, but no voter does. That was the story coming out of it. We got lost in the political fallout from that speech, but the actual reaction to the speech is that voters responded very positively. And you do have some voters in your party that agree with some of the chambers positions. A lot of voters in our party. And all of the establishment. What happens to them when well, i said this the other night. The people who are still deniers, trump deniers, could sit on a Carnival Cruise ship. I am on one of them. And i agree with the chamber of commerce, but that is not the base of the Republican Party. Youre getting up to 80, maybe 85 of republicans that are now ready to get behind trump. And i know, i went after the
chamber of commerce in one of the most conservative districts in america. And you know what . They liked it. The voters liked it. The voters liked it. Amber didnt like it. I talk more about the nfib and small business. When you pull up those numbers, though, pull the threads of those polling numbers out state by state, do you think you would find, its less so for trump than it is bitterly and universally against Hillary Clinton . No. I think its really . I think its a little of both. I know there are a lot of people out there who are excited about donald trump, excited about somebody who and katy, let me go to you. It certainly just happened in britain, but theyre excited about somebody whos going to stick it to the elite, somebody who is going to stick it to the people who have stuck it to them for the past 20 years. You know, wages have gone down and washington has failed on one thing after another. You can start with impeachment
in 99, the 2000 recount, the backs in 2001, wmds in the iraq war in 2003, katrina in 2005. I could literally go every year or two, classic, epic failures on the federal governments level. Donald trump comes in and says, theyre all a bunch of idiots, aisle going to fix it. And 2008 was probably the most egregious case, right . When donny says, people want calm, im not sure thats the case at the moment. What ive just seen in the uk over the brexit vote and what you hear from Trump Supporters in this country is not that they want calm. Is that theyre really angry. And they want somebody whos going to reflect that anger. And when you have candidates like Bernie Sanders and donald trump, who give voice to public anger, they do very well. In fact, they do well by inciting the divisions amongst us, not by trying to unify us. Thats partly why trump has been so successful. He said its you against them, them being the establishment. And in this particular climate, where people feel theyve been left behind and neglected by the elites, thats a message thats seem to have been particularly successful. It resonates. Hes tapped into a feeling in the country. Katy, its donny. I want to shift to mark for a second, kathy and i disagree on this, but i think the deciding factor of course theyre angry wait a second, did they do that in 2004 with bush and kerry . I think they went with bush. The security moms went with bush. Because bush was going to keep them safe. Okay, theres a big difference between bush and donald trump. There wasnt in 2004. I had somebody spit their drink out when i told them i voted for bush twice. Bush was a commander in chief
and he was running on security. Donald trump donny, let me remind you that maureen dowd, whom i love as do i maureen dowd, the week after george w. Bush got elected, said, we have reelected somebody who is going to send us back to the dark ages. Gary wills, preeminent historian said, that in electing george w. Bush, we have elected a man whose followers have more in common with al qaeda than they do with americans. Regardless of what. Thats what people thought of the george bush. What im saying today, is there is a very different brand than donald trump and george w. Bush. You cant just link them together because theyre both strongwilled people. One is much more frightening im just but they were scared of reagan until he died. Then its, reagan was the right kind of republican. And now youre telling me, george w. Bush, he wasnt scary. Oh, my god i dont remember, by the way, i was only i live on the Upper West Side. I would go to my starbucks, to get starbucks every morning, and there were hitler paraphernalia with george w. Bush. I swear to god. Its still there. Dressed as adolf hitler. I was only 20 at the time in 2004, but what i do remember is obviously you get my bigger point. Yes, the elites like myself, if you were the liberals, obviously no george but there wasnt this rancor, this fear, this, oh, my god mark halperin, us there . I think donny, in this case, is more wrong than right. And katty kay agrees. He does that all the time, mark. By the way, mark halperin, coming this fall from simon and shuster, donnys published memoir, wrong more than right. You know i have a book called often wrong, never in doubt . True statement. By the time bush got elected, there are plenty of republicans who were incredulous about that as they are now about donald trump. The security issue is big, and trump doesnt have a resume to ensure suburban women that we would be a better commander in chief. But the Clinton ObamaForeign Policy record, National Security record will be discussed quite a bit in the fall, no matter who trump picks as his running mate, i think that person will pick that up big league. And look at these quinnipiac numbers, to go back to the topic of race and the divisions in the country. The reason trump is competitive in these three battleground states and ahead in florida is because of his dominating the white vote. Hes losing badly among nonwhite voters but hes dominating the white vote. And when you think about, its a base election or, you know, appealing to undecided voters, its always both. But theres no doubt that clinton is going to be trying to build her coalition around a b