Bill is extremely unpopular. Still the 1. 5 trillion tax bill passed early in a vote. Earlier it thought it passed it too, procedural violation requires them to take a new vote on the bill today, this morning, if it does, President Trump says he will take reporters questions this afternoon. Good morning, its wednesday, december 20ing. With us, we have veteran columnist mike barnical, walk anchor for bbc, world news america catty kay, noah rahman, host of casey d. C. On msnbc. Case hunt. Mika has the morning off. We will get to joe in a moment. We should point out catty kay announced yesterday 11 30 p. M. January 2nd your bbc program will be aired in the charlie rose shot. Congratulations. Great. I have been doing this, its about trump, brexit. Everything happening in europe this extraordinary time we are living in. Pbs is picking it up 11 30 p. M. January 2nd. More catty kay is a good ings thing. Thats what my kids say. New polling shows a margin 21 passing the tax bill is a bad idea him they told the wall street poll President Trumps tax be sill a bad idea. Up six points since okay. 24 say its a good idea, roughly the same from two months ago, 57 of trump voters think its a good idea and 63 of republicans, 29 of whites think the tax bill is good. 28 of rural americans do, when asked who it is designed to help the most. 68 say corporations and the wealthy, 22 say all equally, 7 say middle class americans, casey, we will get to those in a moment. Obviously, this is a turning point, this is a generational moment for tax reform, he says for the country. 30 years or so in the making since the last major tax reform watch are the implications of this and what is the divide on capitol hill right now . Reporter pick your metaphor, cory gardner in the senate likes to say, its the first major tax reform since top gun was in theaters. Paul ryan has been working on this for decades they are selling this as a huge victory designed to help all americans. I think the reality of it is, obviously, a little bit more complicated. This bill is not as simple and straight forward as a lot of the Republican Leaders initially set out to have it be. Quite frankly the special interests, lobbyists, others got if and in some ways, what wheer seeing is a rebalancing of who wins and who loses. Now, they do say these business tax cuts are going to ultimately spur job creation. Thats kind of an ideological debate. Democrats believe thats not the case. But the reality is this will affect every Single Person in america and its likely going to be what they are judge on the 2018. There was a calculation, if they didnt get this done, they were toast. Forget it. They were going to lose their elections, now i think theyre counting on americans seeing withholding from their paychecks start income february, checking those dots, saying, hey, this helps me. I think whether or not they do is still an open question. So joe you have known paul ryan for a very long time. Can you see it as you hit that gavel yesterday. This was a moment he had been working for, his entire professional career. He has to finish the vote. Obviously, this was the culmination, not just for. But for many republicans of a generational as paul ryan said move here. Well, for paul ryan, yeah, its his lifetime work. Its what he has been pushing to do from a very early age from the time i knew him, first knew him on the hill when he was 22, 23yearsold, this is his life work and whether you agree with paul ryan or fought, that fact cannot be denied, no a rothman the question is, what is this going to mean in the long term . Obviously, most importantly for American Workers, but also, even though the republicans havent done, i dont think a great job in messaging this or their health care efforts, do you think this is actually a bill that could ends up helping them in the long run politically . I think it could. It depends on the economic impact. Obviously, the reduction in the corporate rate is the big issue here. They tinker with the individual rates the corporate rate down from the highest in the developed world. Still higher than european average, nevertheless, committive now will spur growth it has to. You cant inject that much capital into the economy without it having some impact. Now the extent to which the impact will be felt by voters is the real issue here. Politically, if ruin zitsing that people will look at their withholding and see a 1. 6 and say, aha, i will reward republicans for this, secondarily, we got a budget deficit here. Thats a biggser. And republicans now have to look at cutting mandatory nonDiscretionary Spending in an election year. That seems like a big haul. A very big haul. It will be made so much harder with the tax cut. Few believe estimates will put us 1. 5 trillion deeper into debt. Mike barnical, that makes future cuts seem even more savage. Democrats, bill clinton, he back in the 90s who was his attack line and it worked was, those republicans are cutting medicare to pay for tax cuts for the rich. Those republicans are cutting benefits for the poorest americans to pay for the tax cuts for the rich. Whatever we did, it was always turned around and turned back to that punch leicester and im not so sure that the republicans didnt walk right into that trap in 2018, despite the fact there have been a lot of Business People saying its insane that the United States has the highest corporate tags rate in the world. So how does this wash out for them . Well, joe, im not going to pretend to be an expert on the intricacies of this tax bill that we would be passing in today. You know i cant even balance a checkbook back in the days when people had checkbooks. But i have been stunned at the number of people, ord fare people, who are worried about the size of the debt thats going to be incurred as a result of this tax bill. I actually heard a lot of people speaking about it. Again, ordinary people. The other aspect of this bill that is really threatening to the way laws have passed, the way this country survives and prospers is the increased and continuing polarization that surrounded this bill and the idea that one particular party, the Republican Party went out of its way to remove 13 Million People from the health roles and are proud of it and the fact that the bill was no hearings on the bill, no real communication back and forth between republicans and democrats, noah said the generation amountering tax bill. Its really a continuation of a system, it has to be approved. It has to be addressed. Or else we will be in bigger trouble than we are today. There is a continuation of a system that right now, unfortunately, just doesnt work and it certainly didnt, hasnt worked effectively for the past 15 or 20 years, in part, catty kay, because of divisions, few look at whats happening in the United States and Great Britain. You look at whats happening in germany, you have autocrats across the globe, its almost like were going back to cold war debates about what works and what doesnt work. You look at how tied up congress is and how partisan congress is and they cant even have a debate, an open debate on the floor and have regular order. You look at teresa may failing with brexit votes and having a government together but fought really having a government together t. Same thing with Angela Merkel in germany. You can begin to make an argue if you are Vladimir Putin than western style democracies just dont work anymore. Yeah, if you take this tax bill as an exact exam of that, joe, perhaps one of the most interesting things is the fact that you had conservative democrats, people like joe manchin, who said, i was an easy get on this bill, i could have been got, republicans could have brought me over to their side. What they chose to do with this bill was too egregious for somebody like joe manchin, manchin says they decided to make the tax bill for corporations, fought for average americans, at that point he couldnt support it. Tester, another one that said, look, lyme im a fiscal conservative, montana is a fiscal conservatives, it matters that they build up the tax bill. This is just taxing the next generation, putting an onerous burden on our children. When they say this is not a bill that we can go along with. Then you know in the United States, can you not reform the economy without some measure of bipartisanship and this bill has absolutely none of that. When, willie, i, you know, ive always been a big supporter of cutting taxes. I believe the government taxes too much. I think they take too much of americans money, too much of workers money. I believed that before i moved to connecticut and paid 55 of every dollar in taxes. In this case, it seems like this is the wrong tax cut at the wrong time directed at the wrong people, because if you look at our biggest problems, as a conservative, i think its a National Debt. That adds 1. 5 trillion to the National Debt. It doesnt pay for itself, regardless of what everybody tells you, secondly, our xi is humming at a record rate. Weve had more corporations at least, more stockmarket highs and third the rich are getting richer. This is Alan Greenspan that leftist marxist, himself, he said sometime ago the greatest threat to americanstyle capitalism was income disparity, the rich were getting richer the poor were getting poorer. This adds fuel to that fire as well as the National Debt. It just doesnt seem to make sense if are you a conserve tiver. Well the National Debt is the primary reason i heard principle conservatives say i cant abide by the bill. Were adding too much to the debt. We say we are fiscally conservative. We ought to be. There was a contradiction in what paul ryan said in his speech before the vote on the house floor, he said this economy has been limping along, he talked about a sluggish economy just as you have President Trump tweeting almost every day how the economy is exploding under his presidency the stockmarket is up. Corporate gains, et set remarks et cetera, the Unemployment Rate is down, there is an internal contradiction in there. Casey hunt, i will ask you want we talked of the politics of it, whats in the bill . Interest right. What are the impacts . You heard Mitch Mcconnell saying we havent communicated this enough. This is, in fact, a middle class tax cut. What President Trump calls a great christmas gift. Critics say it benefits wealthy people. There is the repeal of the individual mandate, they have obamacare, its all wrapped into this bundle. So whats the truth about who benefits from this deal . Well, i think in part they havent messaged it. Because its hard to message. Its incredibly complicated. And you can argue it in many ways from both sides who it helps t. Top lines the corporate rate cut is really the central piece of this from 35 to 21 . Now, real tax rates are a little bit different, economicled for each company involved. But this does simplify that overall. It does make adjustments to individual tax cut rates. So most people will see a top line rate cut as part of this bill. They will receive help from an increased child tax credit. Thats something marco rubio fought for as kind of the last minute here. People also see a double standard deduction. So what that likely means is that most people will file a more simple, simplified version of their taxes. It will be less likely you will itemize your deductions, but this is also something thats going to hurt people in high tax states. We talked a lot about this, places like new jersey, potentially connecticut, where joe is. Where you cant deduct as many state and local taxes as you would have under current law. So i think the central question here is what are businesses going to do with this windfall and republicans seep saying, look, they will hire more people. They will increase wages. Democrats say, theyre going to help their shareholders. You know, our economy is shifting in kind of a fundamental way. There are a lot more people working in the gig xi. They dont necessarily have salary and benefits. Theyre not necessarily paying taxes like american versus traditionally. I think there will be a real question here for corporations who will see benefits from this are they going to keep it for themselves and take higher profits, especially and pay out to shareholders . Or will they build and insooes . Gary coen asked ceos, what will they do with it, how many will reinvest it in jobs and the economy . Very few put their hands up. Thats not the intention the money will come back and lit go to shareholders. Its interesting, noia you sound circumspect how this will boost growth . Is it going to boost growth to the degree some republicans are Say Something it will depend on what ceos decide to do with that return. I dont know. Anybody know what is will happen to the economy next year, there is every prospect as you said the economy is doing very well. Were almost at new employment. Growth two consecutive quarters. This could overheat the economy. We could get to its an inflation as a result of this we had low inflation for a long time. We dont know t. Dynamics scoring being what it is the notion that corporations will simply sit on this windfall and wont reinvest in capital doesnt make a lot of sense unless are you really terrified of what the future will bring. We have a lot of indications they shouldnt be terrified of what the future will bring weve had some stability in the commitment i am hopeful. But it is hope. I dont think anybody else has anything more than that. Joe, we will find out about the impact of this tax bill within a fairly reasonable period of time. Maybe six months to a year. Can you get a sense of it. That the Corporate Tax rate going to 21 , Corporate Tax rate getting cut is a good thing. I dont know about 21 . Its a good thing, but as casey pointed out, noah alluded to, what will happen to the money that corporations make . Are they going to hire more people or, more importantly, over the next six months to a year, if you are out there, makeing 75,000, 95,000. You got a couple of kids, are you going to see an immediate impact, a change in your life due to this tax cut in your paycheck you get every week or every two weeks . Are corporations going to give people like that works are benefits somewhat from the tax cut they will get . Are they going to give them something they havent received in real terms in maybe a decade, a significant pay increase . Thats what we will find out about. Thats what this bill will live or die on. No no theyre not going to see. That it goes back to catty bringing up the question when they asked ceos, if you get a tax cut will you reinvest . Hardly anybody raised their hands, im say we, i have been a republican all my adult life up until about six months ago, we republicans have been stuck in a time warp and we think everything is northeastern 81 or 1982 that we are always having to increase our defense spending because were going after the soviets. Or we have to cut taxes because the tax rate is 75 and if we just give corporations a tax cut, well, theyre going to invest in more factories, theyre going to add more assembly lines, they are going to bring more americans streaming into the plant, catty kay, in 2017, im not being cynical here. This is just a matter of fact, when corporations get tax cuts like these in this economy, they buy back stock. Yeah. They are as productive as they want to be that they dont need more people streaming into their plants to create goods or services, but what they will do is make money, catty, we may even see the gdp go up. But where is that growth going to be . Its going to be because of a tax cut leak this, where that growth has been over the past decade. The top 1 , will get richer just as they have at a frightening rate over the past, ten, 15, 20 years in the United States, which far outpaces any other country in the west for having the 1 , having the most money. This only adds to that, does it not . Yeah, you know, it was interesting. The united nationsrerepertoire will increase in the United States because of what you outlined, the huge explosions in the financial industry over the last decadeandahalf has benefitted the top 1 and this is going to increase that. The chances that this will not lead to shared buyed backs, instead of investing in jobs. Instead of giving people pay hikes. I find that very hard to see. Those ceos were honest about what they were going to do when they were speaking to the white house. What was that big word you were using . That was and the big word and. A big vocabulary, january 2nd. With a sort of french flavor. Exactly. Still ahead on morning joe, Freedom Caucus mark meadows and joe crawley both will be our guest as the house prepares to vote on tax reform for a second time this morning. Plus, dont ever let someone tell you your vote does not matter. Democrats and republicans are now tied for control over virginias legislature. Unbelievable. Its a single vote during a recount. We will talk to the woman that won. Heres bill kierans with a look at the forecast. Good morning, five days to christmas, we are getting to the crunch time for travel. We have a rain storm first to talk about. Soaking rains this morning, few are mississippi, northern alabama, this is going to trek through, georgia, tennessee, an umbrella day the rain is increasing. So during the day, as far as airports go, charlotte, raleigh, colombia, atlanta. Its rain, its not ice or snow, minor to possible considerable delays with that. Now we turn our attention to the west. Now its bringing snow to areas of northern portions of rockies. This will move across the country. Airports today, salt lake city, possible delays, fought too bad. Tomorrows storms, kind of weak. Chicago, ohare, milwaukee to green bay, a minor problem with the little bit of snow and ice mixed in. By the time we get to friday, a lot of warm air, more rain for tennessee, by the time we get to saturday, airport problems possible, boston, all the new york city airports, philly, d. C. , included in there. It could be windy. Im get to my final map. This is the Christmas Day forecast, all eyes on