Former GOP representative Joe Scarborough and Mika Brezinski interview newsmakers, politicians and pundits about the issues of the day. Thats 1,754 votes ahead in a sdlact h district that has been in gop hands for three decades. The official outcome way not be known until other ballots are tallied and the race could be headed to a recount if the k candidates end up within 1 of each other once the votes are certified. This morning, balderson is claiming victory. Oconnor has not conceded. Regardless, well see a rematch when they compete for full term in congress. Welcome to morning joe. It is wednesday, august 8th. With joe, willie and me, we have Associate Editor of Commentary Magazine noah raufman. Former treasury official and morning joe economic analyst Steve Rattner and National Political correspondent for nbc news and msnbc news, is he still away, Steve Kornacki. But you see this same thing happening. Theyre bleeding. Republicans are bleeding so badly right now in suburbs, and then you go north of Frank Lynn County to the excerpts, theyre basically splitting it, holding their own, but, again, losing a ton of votes. This is a party, the Republican Party, thats becoming more and more every day a rural party. Also, the thing ive always loved and talked about it for years on this show. I love what madison and hamilton and our founders did when they put down a government that constantly has this system of checks and balances, elections every two years. That always have the electorate sort of tugging and pulling. You see a lot of voters out there thinking, a lot of republicans, a lot of moderates, a lot of independents, thinking that donald trump has gone too far so theyre pulling back the other way. Yesterday something remarkable happening in missouri. A very conservative state, protrump state, prorepublican state. You actually had people coming out in a referendum, and dealing a blow to the right to work forces who were really buoyed by a Supreme Court decision seen as a death nail for unions. Yesterday, ive got to say. That union in missouri, one of the biggest wins in a very long time and, again, you just have to believe. Once again. Thats the electorate sort of tugging and pulling back. Oh, okay. Supreme courts going to take us too far to the right, were going to pull this country back to the center. Pretty remarkable what we see in, you know every time americans go to the voting booth. Amazing to watch overnight, and the people are having a chance to speak. Willie geist, the president is certainly taking this one in ohio personally. Hes declared victory. Sent out a tweet last night. We dont have an official call yet here at nbc news, but hes declared victory saying when i decided to go to ohio for Troy Balderson, he was down. Not good. After my speech Saturday Night, a big turn for the better. Now troy wins a great victory during a difficult time for voting. He will win big in november. Steve car knacky, cautalk about what happened yesterday. Big republican state and President Trump won it two years ago by 11 points. First of all, numbers here. Is there a chance with balderson up by about 1,700 votes now with provisional ballots, mailin ballots that that result changes, that oconnor somehow comes out on top . The suspense is extra weird on this one, because you expect the provisional ballots to break towards the democrat. You dont expect them to actually erase 1,754 vote republican lead. However, if the margin were to cut that 1,754 in half, not
implausible, then the overall Victory Margin for balderson would be under. 5 points. By state law if youre under. 5, more generous than youll see in other places but under. 5, automatically theres a recount. Were in a situation now i think its plausible that oconnor with the provisional votes can get it close enough that the state law is triggered, causing a recount, and even then if youre a democrat, i wouldnt get your hopes up necessarily. The recounts dont tend to change huge numbers of votes. Oconnor in a position needs to change 700, 800 votes. Nothings impossible . Politics. Much rather in balderson position than oconnor, but its not implausible we are going to go through a recount that could take this thing out into late august. Talking late august, Early September recount, as joe said, then another election between these same two guys two months later. However that comes out if there is a recount what did we learn
about the state of the Republican Party last night . Yeah. Three parts to this district. Focus an the suburbs right in and immediately around columbus. Northern Franklin County. More than onethird of the district. Put it in perspective. The Franklin County part, span of six year, contribute to donald trump, obama winning by three points in 2012, clinton by 18 in 2016 to Democrat Danny Oconnor winning by 31 points, in the span of basically half a decade. That the trump effect in places like Franklin County, ohio. Last night, margin was there for democrats. Turnout if you told democrats this is what franklin would look like, they would have set thats it. We win. Start the celebration. What didnt happen, turnout not great in rural parts, but boardson attracted trumplevel
support among those who voted in the rural part of the district. Talk that might recede back towards democrats. Didnt happen. Balderson up around 70 in some Rural Counties. That didnt happen. Bottom line, came down to Delaware County. Wealthy, suburban. A little different i think in character than Franklin County when we say suburbs. Franklin is a little more closer to, a little more in some cases blended with the city. When you take a step, that next level of suburb out, kind of delaware. What happened there, by historical standards trump didnt boardson didnt do well for republicans but matched the trump number and didnt fall back further from the trump number. Looks like just enough to hang ons in what was a trump district by 11 two years ago. Ask quickly, steve, about Delaware County. Not dissing donald trump and wed all say it here. I think that donald trump in most republican primaries is going to be the deciding factor. Whats interesting last night, and a bit ironic, a guy he cant stand, john kasich. If you look at Delaware County and look at kasichs home county and see that actually, and Franklin County, trumps candidates getting wiped out. But in Delaware County, a lastminute endorsement by john kasich had to have a Significant Impact for the republican candidate and help him hang on there. Right . So funny. Think of events in the final days of this campaign that got so much attention. Overinterpret everything, can you do that, but you can see them having very different effects on very different groups of voters in the district. Kasich coming out, endorsing the republican. Absolutely. Kasich coming out saying, publicly hey, i dont know if balderson even wanted trump to come out. You can see that argument made
for delaware. The fact donald trump was out there, the day before the election, you had Balderson Dissing and makebackfired right there. Didnt last night. Balderson came out, thanked a lot of people. He didnt thank john kasich which was not a class move. And maybe hes trying to please donald trump by not thanking john kasich. Thats somebody that would help him out in november. So well see. Politics is always very fascinating, but noah, you tweeted end of the night that for conservatives, for republicans, not a lot to be cheerful about. A very bad night for Republicans Underperforming, and you said, for conservatives and for the conservative movement, the worst bit of news actually came out of missouri. Yeah. You mentioned it was the right to work vote. Missouri, as you said, pretty red state at this point. Senator Claire Mccaskill notwithstanding and half the union is right to work. Essentially means, you dont have to join a union if you join a union shop. Dont have to be forced into a union shop. And if you do, you dont have to be forced to pay union dues. The Supreme Court you mentioned and were seeing a rollback. On the state level democrats are expected to do very well particularly in governorships. Spent a lot of time focusing on congress but governorships are far more important when it comes to reforms, advancing conservative reforms and theyve done extraordinarily well advancing them over the obama years. It is disheartening from a conservative perspective. Look at more of the National Environment, got a taste of it in ohio but is a some, too, in washington. A top two primary system. Functionally a democrat versus republican race, and candidates like incoumbent representative
cathy Mcmorris Rodgers got barely ahead of her democratic opponent, 4 10 point at this point and the fourth ranking republican in congress. Very little, look at results of last night and say republicans had a very good night. They squeaked out something of a victory in ohio, you could call it a victory but its a very pureic one. Historic night for candidates and the numbers are only going to go higher. Laura kelley, nomination for governor. In michigan, former democratic leader of the state senate Gretchen Witmer handedly won her partys gubernatorial nomination, women, now the Major Party Nominees for governor in 11 states breaking the record of 10 set in 1994, and that number is almost certain to grow with the remaining primaries. And at least 20 more women nominated for the u. S. House last night, that total is now at 182. A Record Number of major party
nominations with still more to come and one more milestone last night as michigans Rasheda Talib likely will become the first muslim woman in serve in congress. A former state rep, unopposed in the general election for the seat. Long held by ex congressman john conyers. I think in a lot of ways this is a response to trump. Joe, women are stepping up. Yes. Willie, so much, and, again, not a surprise. Just like 1996 was a response to bill clinton. 2010, a response to barack obama. No doubt about it. 2018 seems to be such a response to donald trump, with the Republicans Underperforming everywhere. And women, Democratic Women particularly, doing well in these early contests. Yeah. No question. What a preview, perhaps what well see in three months. Last night across several
states, Steve Rattner, get to your charts in a few minutes and look at the Historical Perspective on all this, but just what can donald trump expect three months from now, when you put together that history of what a sitting president faces in his first term and all the energy were seeing among democrats right now . Without stealing my own thunder from my charts, im sure Steve Kornacki knows all this, combined with the president s Approval Rating, a Midterm Election is incredibly bad news for President Trump. Saying something about the women a shoutout, went home to michigan to fight out michigan 11 against an incumbent republican, stetted down. She stepped down. They give her a good shot at winning. Awesome. Noah its awesome. While it looks like
democrats, a lot of women, in the Democratic Party will do exceptionally well, you look on the republican side, and just like you said. Youve got people like Barbara Comstock in Northern Virginia who is in danger, and actually as of last week was not getting a lot of support from the major party. You just talked about the fourth ranking republican. Another woman. Underperforming in ways weve never seen before, and i wonder if that has to do with her being a woman in the Republican Party . Or if its just that mainstream conservatives in the age of trump are going to underperform every time nap this is a party right now that is, at least in the primaries, at war with itself . Im not sure if theres a genderrelated aspect there to the extent i could say there might be one, women in general in the electorate, to say nothing of the Republican Party,
railroad all that hot on donald trump. The president has been that is the understatement of the morning women a lot of republican women. Literally. I guess thats a better way to put it nap really is, noah, as you look at the map last night, and you look at these races as we continue, this is sort of the home stretch before we go into the final push after labor day. That seems to be the overarching headline of all of these results that women have not just been offended by donald trump, but they have been activated to such a level that, thats probably, women are probably the greatest threat to the republican majority right now. Yeah. I would say thats probably accurate. And we saw some of the backlash that a lot of us predicted would occur with the shifting Republican Coalition towards White Working Class voters, former democratic voters. A big broad base of voters without a degree that can get you states like michigan and wisconsin and pennsylvania, but
at the expense of the former that core Republican BaseStatus Quo Ante, marginally affluent upper middle class degree holders. And ohio 12 is a really welleducated district and thats where youre going to see the backlash. See it from women. See it from degree holders. People making more than the National Average and the income scale, and thats where the traditional Republican Base was. So where that base exists and its deflated and not turning out, republicans like Barbara Comstock, like Kevin Mcmorris rogers are going to suffer. Women are going to be i think what were seeing in realtime is women carrying out one of the key tenants, joe, of know your value, which is step up, because no ones going to do it for you. Absolutely no one. In the age of trump we have to. And the second one is, women are learning in realtime to fail publicly. Andrea accostio cortez, a rough run since she won in new york,
but we do it, just like men and have a bigger reaction to it, because for some reason, when women fail its much more of a story than men, but were pushing through it. Much more at knowyourvalue. Com. Still ahead on morning joe well talk to the democrat locked in an election too close to call. Danny oconnor joins us inalities while. Plus susan page writes in usa today About Whan What Happene and when bob mueller issues a public report. Examining why conservatives arent freaking out about republicans budgetbusting deficits. Dont get that. And Barbara Mcquade is live outside the courthouse in virginia where Paul Manafort is on trial. But first, bill karins with a check on the forecast. Bill . Good morning to you, mika. Big thunderstorms causing a lot of delays in new york city. More of those up and down the east coast. Today its so hot and still so humid out there. Going all right this morning. Areas dealing with a little rain, Southern Ohio Rain overnight. Louisville, cincinnati and additional storms through kentucky. Five p. M. , coming home from work today. These area, showers and storms, watch out from nashville to knoxville to chattanooga. Areas in the mountains of north carolina, west virginia, throughout new york state. Areas of the catskill and possibly around the mass pike. Later than 5 00 p. M. Maybe 7 00 or 8 00 p. M. , bet chance for boston, new york, into d. C. Hit and miss. Not everyone will get them. Extremely hot. 38 Million People in the heat advisories. Last day of it. Showers and storms cool us off and a slightly drier air mass moves in for tomorrow. Out west, the story is still the heat. Los angeles a little cooler for you and how about the Pacific Northwest . This will be the hottest twoday stretch of the summer from spokane into areas of interior
washington state, 105 today. Boise, 102. Seattle 93. Friends in portland, oregon, 97 degrees today. The heat continues in the west along with all the extreme fire danger and the fires that are burning are still burning hot, and you have to feel for the firefighters. New york city, what a thunderstorm last night. A lot of clouds, lightning. Could do it again later this afternoon. Youre watching morning joe. Well be right back. I thought i married an italian. My lineage was the vecchios and zuccolis. Through ancestry, through dna i found out that i was only 16 italian. He was 34 eastern european. So i went onto ancestry, soon learned that one of our ancestors we thought was italian was eastern european.