Cars. Police tell us there were about a half dozen supporters who were transported to the hospital. There was few masks and in the 87 degree heat multiple people passed out. 12 taken to the hospital and the president said this as a fire truck sprayed water into the crowd. Are they doing that on purpose . Friend or foe . Covid in minnesota. Boy, that looks like fun. Hypothermia in nebraska and heat exhaustion in florida. The health risks of a trump rally. Triple threat there, willie geist. It is dangerous to your health to go to those things. Yeah. Start with the gathering with the covid reasons and this is an additional layer, but youre smushing a bunch of people together in a time when were racing towards more infections and President Trump is carrying on with his rhetoric and rally as if thats not happening. Yeah. Other people in his family are dismissing of this seriousness of this going away. Donald trump says we keep turning the corners. We keep setting the records for the number of coronavirus cases every day and we had a thousand i think over 1,000 people died of covid19 yesterday. Just to put this in perspective, thats more people dying in one day than died in u. S. Fatalities in afghanistan over the past decade. Donald trump talks about how long we have been in afghanistan and soldiers that are still getting killed in afghanistan and the marines. More people died yesterday of covid in america. Something we just again, now take for granted every day. But more people died yesterday of covid in america than died in the afghanistan war. U. S. Soldiers, over the past decade. Its staggering at this point. The disconnect. Along with joe, willie and me we have chief White House Correspondent for the New York Times, peter baker. Host of way too early, kasie hunt. And politics and journalism professor at morgan university, editor, Jason Johnson is with us. So were now in the final four days of campaigning ahead of election day. Today is all about the midwest. Both donald trump and joe biden will make stops in minnesota and wisconsin. Trump in rochester, minnesota, and green bay, wisconsin. Biden in st. Paul, minnesota, and milwaukee. Trump also rallies in michigan just outside of detroit while biden holds a drivein rally in des moines, iowa. Willie . So we know where their focus so lets look at the polling. In pennsylvania, the latest Quinnipiac University poll shows joe biden ahead there by seven points. 51 to 44 . Couple of polls out of florida. Monmouth university gives joe biden a sixpoint advantage. 51 to 45 in the poll. Quinnipiac has biden ahead by three in the state, 45 to 42 . In ohio, the quinnipiac pack shows biden ahead by five points, 48 to 43 . In North Carolina, the latest New York Times siena poll has biden ahead. And in iowa, donald trump is ahead by one point. 47 to 46 . So airtight in all of the states. I know youre skeptical of any poll that shows a fivepoint lead in florida. Youve run for office there. What are you seeing in florida and why dont you believe a fivepoint spread poll . Also, we didnt have a fivepoint spread for ohio in biden by that poll . Yeah. Yeah, that aint happening. I mean, i feel like i feel like harry bailey at the end of its a wonderful life, sobbing, i want to believe in polls again. Its so comforting when you never know. You look at a poll, oh, thats great. Well, lets just talk about florida. So a number of polls out, florida plus 6, biden. Florida, plus 3, thats a little closer to the reality. We had a New York Times siena poll that had florida plus 4. Smartest democratic operative i know who ran a massive poll across florida has biden up four. Maybe it will happen. Maybe it will happen, but if you look at the early numbers, look at the data coming out of florida, republicans keep chewing away at that huge 430,000 vote lead the democrats had last weekend. They knock it down about 50,000 every day. Republicans are outperforming democrats on a massive scale. Theyre going plus 50,000 about every day so where is that Democratic Energy after four years of donald trump . They lost another 40, 50,000 yesterday, so now that lead has been whittled down to 155,000 votes and thats going all the way through sunday for early voting. Look at miamidade and joe biden is still underperforming. So right now, i see all the polls that show a four or five point lead for joe biden, but i see the data on the ground. I also understand that this is, forgive me, Steve Kornacki, but this is exactly what pollsters were saying not four years ago in florida, two years ago in florida when they had ron desantis down by five points. Had rick scott, current senator, rick scott down by four or five points. It seemed like every poll had gillum as the next governor of florida. It was an absolute shock when he ended up losing. And so, again, i see these florida polls, six. Plus 5, plus 4. They just dont ring any more truth than that ohio poll that has joe biden up by five points. I do not know what now, if it happens ill be shocked and the pollsters have it right, but steve, we keep talking about 2016 and the pollsters getting it wrong. They got a lot of the upper midwest states and florida wrong in 2018. Yeah. A critical point to keep in mind. There were changes made to polling at the state level after 2016 and well see how they hold up but i do think its worth remembering in 2018 a particular type of state, state with a large noncollege white population, state with large with a large rural white population, you saw misses. You saw miss in the polling in 2018 statewide in ohio, you saw it in indiana and in missouri. Saw it in tennessee. You saw it in north dakota. Some demographic characteristics there that tie a lot of states together. I know a lot of them lean republican but it is a question i think when you look at some of those polls out of the midwest and like you said the example of 2018 in florida looms large. The modern history of florida being a one or two point race looms large. Of course in florida, were always talking about it seems there is some kind of tradeoff in place when you look at the polls where the democrats maybe have gained ground, biden has with seniors in florida, just as hes losing ground with hispanics more particularly cubans in florida. Florida has a way of finding equilibrium by election day. Yeah. I think it was josh barro last night who commented, yes, there are tradeoffs in florida but all tradeoffs arent created equally. Someone who has been on the ballot four times in florida i can tell you if i had to choose a tradeoff where i lost more cubanamericans than Hillary Clinton did four years ago, but i picked up a lot more white seniors, id take the old white seniors any day of the week in the state of florida because thats a pickup on a fairly massive scale so i will say this. If joe biden overperforms among older white seniors where Hillary Clinton underperformed last time, and if those independents we already had 1. 6 million third party, other party, nonrepublican and democratic, not affiliated floridians vote already. 1. 6 million. We dont know how those are going to break. If those break for joe biden, then, yes, maybe biden gets a two, a threepoint lead. But those are a couple of big ifs. White seniors, older voters in florida in particular, key obviously to florida, but remember well get the florida result early. We think well get a lot of results in the 7 00, 8 00 hour from florida. Just remind you what happened in 2016 and what we could tell from the vote that came in in 2016. Think along the gulf coast in florida when you saw at 7 45, 8 00 that President Trump was running 10, 15 points better in counties than mitt romney had four years earlier. He hit levels that you didnt think a republican would hit, he was seeing turnout levels that you didnt think a republican could hit. Of it told you wait a minute, who are the older white voters who live along the gulf coast, who have moved to the gulf coast of florida. Theyre from wisconsin. Theyre from michigan. They come down from the midwest and they retire to the gulf coast so if youre seeing that surge along the gulf coast of florida early for donald trump it told us look out for a couple of hours and we get the votes from the midwest which is exactly what happened. Work that in reverse, thinking ahead to Election Night 2020. If its not showing up this time, if youre seeing the kind of shift among the seniors in the gulf coast counties the question you start asking then, a does that Say Something about where florida is going and portend a shift in the midwest as well . A great point. I remember early 2004, i was on the panel with chris matthews. I think brokaw, howard fineman, Mike Barnicle. This is something for people to be looking at at 7 15, 7 30 when the florida results came in. I started looking because the whole state of florida doesnt report obviously until 8 00 when the central time zone of florida, my part of the state starts reporting, but i could tell by 8 00, by comparing what bush had done in 2004 with what he was doing in 2004 and these florida in these florida counties, whether it was in miamida miamidade, broward or palm beach or whether it was the center of the state or up in jacksonville and duval county. I could tell that bush was so overperforming his 2000 numbers and i turned to people on the panel, i said, hey, florida is not going to be close this year. Since there are so many transplants in this state, if bush is outperforming himself here, this is going to also be true across the midwest. Also and it ended up being that way. Thats why, steve, we have all been hearing that, yes, pennsylvania, its going to take them 18 years to count all the votes in pennsylvania but its important for people to remember that by 7 30, especially if 75, 80 of floridians have already voted, by 7 30 we can go in and look at a lot of the counties especially in the middle of the state and like you said, along the gulf coast. If donald trump is underperforming by 10, 15 , what he did four years ago in those florida counties, thats not just bad news for him in florida. Thats bad news for him across the country. Now, if donald trump is doing as well in those even those small counties some of which will have 90 of their vote in and well get it by 7 30 at night on Election Night f you take some of those counties in the center of the state and donald trump is holding those margins, well, joe biden may be in for not just a long night, a very long few weeks. Well, you know, look, we can how about this. Ill call this up. This is what happened on Election Night 2016 in florida. Actually, let me hit the button right here. So as an example, take a look. Take a look at pasco county. Thats what i was trying to call up. This is one of the counties i remember seeing early on Election Night north of tampa, gulf coast. Look at the trump margin, 59 to 37 over clinton. Look at what we were comparing that to four years ago, romney won it by seven and trump was winning it by three times the margin mitt romney won it by. So youre absolutely right. What well be doing on Election Night 2020 is were going to have the 2020 result right and well see how does this compare . County after county to four years ago and was saw all of the trends youre describing in florida. Have they changed in a way that favors the democrats, have they changed in a way that favors the republicans, have they canceled each other out . But yeah, i just expect it was tim russert 20 years ago who said florida, florida, florida, but thats my expectation for the early hours of Election Night 2020. Theres a lot of florida and a lot coming out in florida and georgia and ohio, some other states too. It can be telling us something very significant about the national race. Well, willie, pasco county, lets look at pasco county that steve had up on the big board right now. Thats one of the four or five counties that im going to be looking at, that youre going to be look at at 7 15, 7 30, because again theyre all of the early votes unlike pennsylvania and the other midwest states, florida is counting the votes right now. Theyre counting the absentee votes and counting the early votes right now. Polls close at 7 00. They drop them at 7 15, 7 30 and again, in a county like pasco county theyre have counted will already 90 , 95 of the votes. That will come at us very quickly and if we can show steve, by the big board and show the numbers there, you look at what barack obama got in 2012 and see that he got 46 , Hillary Clinton gets 37 . If were seeing a number for joe biden out of pasco county at 7 15, 7 30, on Election Night and hes sitting at 42 , 43 thats big news because that means a lot of those obama trump voters are edging back towards joe biden. And that means that some of those older white voters are breaking away from donald trump. If trump holds his numbers and biden is down in the 30s in pasco county and ten others in the middle of the state, then great news for trump. Hes holding on to the people that he knows he needs to win and that will carry through florida and maybe some other states as well. Yeah. Theres a reason that donald trump was in tampa yesterday and on a hot day. He knows exactly where he needs to be and what he needs to do in the state of florida. Even if you move over a couple of counties to pinellas county, president obama won that county and donald trump flipped it back in 2016. Well be the i4 corridor well have a close eye on that all night. I know you will too, steve. I have heard from a lot of people over the last few days wondering with all of the mailin vote how to process the numbers that well have coming in on Election Night. So as you look, you mentioned georgia, you mentioned florida, you mentioned North Carolina, ohio should have a pretty good feel for those states. But what are the places where if it drags on it could be a couple of days and how should we look at the percentage that we get in first that that vote thats in the bank, the early vote, while we wait for other votes to be counted . Yeah, its going to vary by state and we can use 2016 in florida as an example here. Of course things are a little bit different this year because of the pandemic, because of the emphasis on early voting. But, four years ago, when donald trump carried florida you see by 1. 2 here, going in to election day all of this these daily updates on early voting in florida, the ballot advantage for democrats going in to election day was 90,000 and what that translated into was that Hillary Clinton won the early mailin vote in florida in 2016 by six points. So everything thats going on now this period in 2016 in florida, Hillary Clinton won by six points thats what it ended up being. Then the folks who went out on election day and voted, donald trump won them by 12 points. Trump won the election day vote by 12. You put those two buckets of votes together, thats what it added up to. So what you saw in 2016 overall was a democratic advantage in the early mail votes because of the way florida reports out its results as joe is saying, in that first hour especially when you get these big reports out from these counties and youre seeing 70 , 80 of the vote this is the bucket youre seeing officially. Then this is the bucket that gets added to it. So in a state like florida you might expect that the earliest numbers you get will be the best numbers that joe biden sees in florida and then the question is can he hold on as the votes from this bucket which are probably going to be more donald trump friendly as those are added in across the state. Thats the story in a state like florida. Its probably going to be different in a state if you go to in the pennsylvania, pennsylvania is a bit of a mishmash in terms of how different counties are doing it. But there are some counties in pennsylvania that arent going to touch their mailin ballots until next day. And theyre only going to report out on Election Night the votes that were cast on election day. There are other counties, other places in pennsylvania like the city of philadelphia for instance, that are going to report out probably a big chunk of their mailin vote along with their sameday vote. Theyll get more of a mix. But even in a place like philadelphia its going to take days to get through and process those hundreds of thousands of mailin ballots. So if in florida the story is going to be the early vote that gets reported is favorable to biden and then it gets more trump friendly as the night goes on. In pennsylvania, a couple other places, the story is going to be the first numbers you see and probably for a few hours on Election Night for all of Election Night are going to be the best that trump sees in pennsylvania and then theyre going to improve for biden as the mail comes in and can biden overtake whatever advantage trump has. Youre looking a the polling averages in the critical swing states that we have been looking at for months and months now. Were four days out. How close are these states, steve . Yeah we can take a look here. Theres three tiers here. We always talk about michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, the three trump barely won but are so critical to his Electoral College math in 2016. The polling there is continues to be the biggest trump vulnerabilities in the swing states. Again, if biden just wins the three states, overwhelming likely hes won the election. Its very difficult to see trump coming one 270 without those. If you move to florida, arizona, North Carolina, states trump won in 2016 but by much smaller margins, they have arizona in a tie. There are some i should note there are some of the other poll averagers who have biden up by about two points in arizona right now. Depends what mix of polls you use and what weight you give them. North carolina though, they have got biden up by a fraction of a point. Texas, iowa, these are states that trump won by hike Single Digits what is the polling showing there . Trump up a couple in texas. A tie in ohio. Fivepoint lea