Screen. Hillary clinton on the right. She will get the first question of the debate. 90 minutes commercial free. The rules are slightly different from previous debates. More on that later. Something else will be different tonight. The spouses, Melania Trump and former president clinton, will not be introduced, will not greet each other or shake hands. In fact, they will be seated before the debate gets under way as members of the audience. The political backdrop in las vegas veers between circus and prize fight. Tonight, however, of course, is very serious business. Good evening from our election headquarters. Brian williams along with rachel maddow, Chris Matthews leading our coverage tonight from las vegas. Our very best in the business Political Team here with us and across the country, really, as we get under way. We should probably make this point at the outset. This is not an even race going into tonight. One candidate enjoys a substantial lead in the polls. The other, among other things, has spent a substantial amount of the last ten days defending himself against accusations of sexual assault. Several of us are not expecting a great moment in american democracy tonight. I hope to be proven wrong. You and i have been talking about this off camera about our overall sort of mood expectations for tonight. You are worried that this is going to be dark. I was very worried that the decked se bait was going to be dark and i was right. You were proven right. But this one i feel like its much im very interested i have a lot of excitement heading into this debate because i think its very hard to tell whats going to happen, at least on one side of it. Listen, in 1964, Barry Goldwater got thrashed in the president ial election and the Republican Party got thrash in congress as well. Happened in 1980 when jimmy carter got beaten so bad by Ronald Reagan. The democrats died in congress as well. In 1986 when bob dole was on track to lose that badly, republicans saw the writing on the wall and they cut him loose. They didnt hold a third president ial debate in 1996, but a week after the second one, it was actually 20 years ago this week, republicans cut bob dole loose. They basically told their house and Senate Candidates around the country, doles toast, save yourselves. And it worked. Bob dole got beaten really badly, only got 41 of the vote. But the republicans did fine. They held the house. They actually picked up seats in the senate. And i say that because i think that shows that there are more and less strategic ways to badly lose a president ial election, and donald trump is on track to badly lose a president ial election. His poll numbers are lower than bob doles right now. Theyre down in Barry Goldwater territory. But in his case, the reason i dont know whats going to happen tonight is i dont think anybody believes he wants to save anything other than himself. He spent the ten days since the last debate excoriating the Republican Party all but openly wishing for them to lose their elections. I think we know what Hillary Clintons going to do. Shes on track to win so shes going to keep her head down and hope this will end soon. But trump is in a different spot. Everybody expects him to lash out crazily because hes so far behind and he needs to change this race. But i dont think we know. Hes running desperate against Hillary Clinton and against his own party. He owes them nothing, he hates them. Hes rooting for their failure even though theyre his own party. We have no idea what that looks like in a president ial debate. I have absolutely no idea how he will act tonight. Its funny, senator dole is among those people i will be thinking about tonight because the nature of this campaign this year has made us so often think back and reflect on the giants, the greats who have run in years past. The people for whom party has spent everything, just slightly below that of country for those patriots who have served in government. So theres a lot of weight going into tonight as we look at reverend jackson and others going into the crowd. Chris matthews, as i said, heading up our coverage from las vegas. And i heard a guest on your show this evening say dont get this wrong, this is a subsidiary of Breitbart News on the web that is now calling the shots in what passes for the trumpcontrolled Republican Party. Yeah, that was robert constant, the washington post, hes a great reporter. He sees all the signs here of a scorched earth policy. In other words, basically a campaign of hate and negativity and protest rather than a campaign to win the presidency. I mean, as rachel said, these odds are terrible for trump right now. You can get good money for that, you probably pay for your down payment on your house if you put a few hundred bucks up tonight because its so against him. He gets 41. You got to bet 11 in engraland where you can actually make a legal bet, to get 2 for hillary shes such a strong favorite right now. You can all discuss this because i dont know the answer. If trumps smart, hes got to hit the sweetspot tonight, land a sunday punch that resounds. My bet is go after the email benghazi that socalled quid pro quo where you have that former fbi agent claiming that, he hasnt taken it back. You can have her playing this murky difficult defense keep her on the ropes doing that over and over again because it brings up the issue of trust which is the winner for him, brings up the email which is the topic that brings the trust in question. It focuses on a news story that hasnt been resolved thoroughly yet. I would go to one, the blunderbuss approach of bringing in the half brother and the mother of the victim, the mother of the guy sean smith who was killed in benghazi bringing in the guy from lost survivor, last survivor. I think its all so over. I dont see how you can get a headline out of that and he needs a headline. Chris matthews for us in las vegas. I think thats exactly right. Trump needing to change the trajectory right now is the one thing that all election observers on the left and right and independent all agree now. But in terms of how much he needs a change, i want to bring into this conversation Steve Kornacki to keep us honest. Were saying it is not close, that Hillary Clinton is on track to win, that trump is on track not only to lose but to lose badly. Can you give us a snapshot in terms of his path and her path at this point and what the maps look like . Yeah, lets take a look here in terms of we keep seeing donald trump the path is narrow, its narrowing, this is a very difficult situation. How difficult exactly, what precisely would it take . Let me take you through this piece by piece. Lets start with this. This is the 2012 map. This is obama versus romney last time around. If youre donald trump, you came into this race saying, first, i want to hold all those red states, those 206 electoral votes that romney had, thats my base. Hold that and build on it, start picking off blue states. Problem number one for donald trump, those red states, it may be eroding right now. What youre seeing there are red states where weve gotten some evidence in polling in the last week or two certainly a traumatic week or two for Donald Trumps campaign that he could have to worry about these states. He is down in some polls in arizona right now. Theres a poll in utah, today, believe it or not, that has the independent Evan Mcmullen winning out there. Hes down in north carolina. He may be in trouble in georgia. Some of the others are reaches. Bottom line for trump, this is supposed to be your base. Lose any single one of these states and you can forget it, the election ends on the spot. Step number one, shore up the red wall you didnt think you had to worry about. Run the table in every single one of those states. All that does is brings you back to where mitt romney finished four years ago when he lost. Step two if youre donald trump, if you can shore up that red wall, you have to pick off the blue states. Where is he in the game right now, what obama states, that obama carried in 2012, does it show that hes at least within striking distance . You are looking at them right there, florida down, but striking distance. Ohio, that looks even. Iowa, he may be ahead in iowa right now, nevada. If youre trump, every single one of these is a mustwin. If you do that, if you have shorn up all of those red states and you take those blue state targets, theres what you got. Youre close, but guess what . Youre still not there. Trump would be at 266. He would need one more blue state, and its very tough to look at that map right now, his campaign has been saying New Hampshire, New Hampshire, New Hampshire. Well, guess what . Theres a poll out today that shows Hillary Clinton ahead in New Hampshire by 15 points. If youre donald trump, youve got a heck of a lot of red states to worry about now. You have to win them all, you have to win all of those blue states where hes at least within range right now, and then you need to pull a rabbit out of the heaat. You need to win a blue state, a New Hampshire, colorado, pennsylvania, wisconsin. Hes not only down in those states, he could be down big right now. Steve kornacki with a couple hundred of his closest friends tonight. Thank you for that look at the numbers. Lets bring our political director into this conversation. Moderator of meet the press, that would be chuck todd. Any reason to disagree with anything thats been said thus far in this broadcast by any of us . Look, tonight, i dont disagree with any of it on the stakes here tonight. But let me just put it in some personality terms. There may be nobody that needs donald trump to have a good night more than paul ryan, and that may seem ironic given how little paul ryan wants to do with donald trump, how much he wishes he could find a way to separate himself from donald trump, but why do i say that . Because with the Republican Party desperately needs tonight is for donald trump to get off the mat. He is essentially on the verge of this thing collapsing. The party is worried. I talked to multiple republican strategists over the last few days. Theyre all essentially saying the floorboards are creaking. Its about ready to snap. The bottoms going to fall out if trump doesnt have a good night tonight. This may be less about him just trying to get competitive on the battleground and more trying to keep the Republican Party from having a house disaster. You know, this is less this may be less about trying to win the presidency and more about saving the house and keeping the battle for control of the senate competitive. That to me is what is realistically at stake tonight and what is realistic at this point for success for the Republican Party, which is, if trump stabilizes, just gets off the mat, it might be enough to at least salvage at least one of the two houses of congress. Look at 2012. He essentially an electoral landslide, general election, fourpoint spread. That was while that gave democrats some senate seats, it kept the house in republican hands. So anything he can do to make this more competitive saves the house. I just think its ironic, of all people tonight, nobodys job is more on the line than paul ryans. And his future rests in Donald Trumps hands. How uncomfortable is that . It could also be reduced to saying that both of them need to look president ial tonight. The stakes are just higher, i guess, for donald trump. Yes, we go through this president ial. Look, i think the perceptions of these candidates are baked in. I dont know if theres new information tonight that will somehow dramatically change things. I think it is more on how they handle this moment, how they handle the tumult tonight. How hillary i mean, i think it is important probably to some skeptical potential clinton voters. How does she answer the wikileaks questions. How does she answer some of these controversies . And with trump, republicans that are just starting to get demoralized, does the guy that showed up for the first 20 minutes of that debate, can he show up for 90 minutes . Then youll have a wunsbunch of elected republicans down the ballot that will be more comfortable campaigning tomorrow. If he falls on his face and its a repeat of that first debate, republicans tomorrow morning will be running for the hills. Chuck todd, some weighty words from inside the venue tonight in las vegas. If youve been watching the screen on the right, youve seen luminaries from leon panetta to kareem abduljabbar, just saw ted danson, mary steenburgen, everyone, it looks like a prize fight. I think there was a fabio sighting. I think i might have seen a fabio, but i cant confirm. If not some lucky hairgifted person in that crowd. Well take our very first break. And well be back with live coverage from las vegas and points east right after this. Were back and there is the venue on the campus of the university of nevada las vegas where tonights debate is within the coming hour and were standistand i where standing by to talk to us is the number two man on this ticket, indiana governor mike pence. Thank you very much for being with us tonight. You bet, brian. Good to be with you. Lets start with a topic i believe will come up tonight and that is wikileaks. Is marco rubio wrong when he says to fellow republicans they shouldnt be using this wikileaks material that is, by all accounts, most likely stolen by the russians . Well, marco rubios my friend. I was campaigning with him in florida over this weekend. Were grateful for his support, but look, the revelations that have come out about Hillary Clintons years as secretary of state and the Clinton Foundation go far beyond the leaks from wikileaks. Some come from networks freedom of information requests, fbi documents that were released last week were the source of information that the state department under Hillary Clinton had sought to reclassify information on her private server. So i understand his point. I think we should always look at the facts. Certainly if the russians were involved in hacking our security and our privacy in this country, there should be serious consequences, but at the end of the day i think the facts matter, the truth matters. And the American People have an enormously important decision to make in the next 20 days, brian, and having all the information they can have on both of these candidates i think is in the public interest. Well, senator rubios point is very specific. And his point is any given day it could be you, it could be the leader of our country that is held in effect for ransom based on what russia has electronically taken out of the system and trafficked in. Well, first, we dont know who hacked into the system. There is increasing evidence that the russians may have been involved in a part of that, but i think it is enormously important to note that the vast amount of information that has come beyond wikileaks information and releases is also before the public domain. But i think at the end of the day its important that we make it clear that if russia or any other sovereign interest was involved in compromising the privacy and security of the United States that there would be severe consequences. But at the end of the day, i think the American People have a right to know. I think they have a right to know what policies Hillary Clinton was advancing. The fact that another network through a freedom of information request was able to find that the secretary of state and her aides were directing contracts for the haitian relief effort and the reconstruction to friends of the clintons, according to that release, i think its important that the American People understand the way that, frankly, the clintons have operated, the pay to play politi politics, and its the kind of politics the American People are tired of. Dt made a ponald trump made a p drain the swamp in washington, d. C. And its far beyond the wikileaks revelations, the information we have about the clinton years, the Clinton Foundation all cry out for real reform. I suspect we might be hearing more of that from the stage tonight. Will you right now tell your supporters to accept the will of the voters, whatever it is, on november 8th, and will you urge the man we just saw arriving at the venue, donald trump, at the top of your ticket, to do the same . Well, of course. I made that point. And donald trump in the very first debate made that same point. Thats before he said the election was rigged before election day. Well, but look, the point he made is that, frankly, that i think there was a poll today that showed 55 of the American Public believes that the National Media has been overwhelmingly biased against my running mate. But theres many instance where the National Media has just piled on donald trump in this campaign and the American People know it. It looks like a rigged system from a media perspective. Make no mistake about it, voter fraud is real. And the antidote to that is to be calling on our supporters, as we are across the country, to respectfully participate in the electoral process. The reality is that the right to vote has been bought at too high a price for all of us, republicans, democrats and independents, not to do all we can to protect the integrity of the vote, the one person, one vote principle. Im confident the American People will do that, and im confident that when the polls all close on november 8th, the American People will h