Msnbc. The u. S. Is waking up to a new threat from north korea. Also new today, the secretary of Homeland Security weighing in. He says he does not see the threat from north korea as an active war threat. In the case of north korea, a kinetic threat against the United States right now i dont think is likely, but certainly a cyber threat. So we would raise various threat levels in the event that something happened and we telt as though there was a possible threat. You always want to caution on the side of or come down on the side of caution. Nbcs Janice Mackey frayer is watching all of this for us from seoul, south korea. Janice. Dara, with tensions simmering in the region, there is a show of military strength in pyongyang. A massive parade of missiles and military hardware north korea had been warninger for days that this would be a big event. There were warnings from officials saying if the u. S. Were to launch a preemptive strike, it would be allout war and annihilation. Theres been speculation for weeks that north korea may be carrying out a sixth nuclear test or maybe prepare something sort of missile launch, perhaps a test of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile capable of reaching the United States. The President Trump ordered the uss Carl Vinson Carrier Group toward the peninsula. But china is wading in and urging both sides to back down from this mutual provocation. They believe that it can only be resolved by talks. But today, it was very much a show of force in pyongyang and the suggestion from experts that even if north korea has not yet achieved all of its ambitions, its certainly committed to building its arsenal. Thank you for that. Joining me on the phone is eric talmadge. Eric, good morning to you. What is the mood in pyongyang and is there a sense that the country could engage in military action . Good morning. The mood in pyongyang today is theres not as much tension as you might expect. Instead, most people are focused on marking the anniversary birthday of kim hoson. Thats the biggest holiday in north korea. The hundreds of thousands of people are mobilized for the military parade and the rally that went with it today. Right now, in fact, instead of worry background the tensions that are growing between the United States and their country, many people in pyongyang are out having mass dances and theres going to be a fireworks display tonight. Outwardly, its a fairley normal celebratory day here. Eric, we are seeing pictures of the parade. Did we see new Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles on display in todays parade . If so, what is the likelihood those weapons showing in the parade are actually operational . I think it will take a little time and analysis by the experts to determine whether those were actually icbms or whether they are operational or could be operational. But i think theres very little doubt that the north is making Great Strides towards having the kind of missiles that could strike u. S. Bases, for instance, in japan or in the next few years possibly the u. S. Mainland. And possibly even match those missiles with a nuclear warhead. And how likely is north korea to conduct a sixth Nuclear Missile test in the near future . I spoke with a Senior Foreign Ministry official yesterday. In response to that exact question, he said that that decision is to be made by the supreme headquarters in north korea and that they will make that decision whenever they deem fit. He said that could happen any time. So the North Koreans claim that their Nuclear Program is in selfdefense to protect their country against the u. S. And so because of that reasoning, they claim that they have the right to conduct Nuclear Tests anytime they want. Eric, u. S. Homeland Security Director john kelly says a cyber attack is more likely than a kinetic attack. What kind of damage can a cyber attack from north korea do to the United States . Well, i think thats highly speculative and his comments, i thk, are very interesting. Of course, we have the allegations of attack and more recent attacks perhaps on banks and other institutions. So thats one thing that is very unclear point right now, how strong the norths Cyber Capabilities really are. I think well have to watch out for that. But one thing i would say is although there were no nuclear the tests or Ballistic Missile launch is today, theres another big appear versery coming up on the 25th which is the founding of the north korean military. I would think there is a high likelihood that if something is going to happen along those lines, it could happen before or around the 25th. Eric, thank you so much. Thank you. Joining me now is rieshd army colonel and military analyst jack jacobs. Colonel, good morning. Thanks for being here. Good morning. With u. S. Warships in the region and direct Nuclear Threats today, is there any room for error from u. S. Military . And if so, what would those consequences be . Well, theres always room for error. I mean, tension res high. The likelihood of anything untoward happening involving u. S. Forces is relatively low. Im thinking that the north may try to launch a missile. You know, its theyve done it before. As a demonstration of capability and force. The chinese have recently, through the one of their state broadcasting arms, threatened the north that if they tested a Nuclear Weapon, not a missile, but if they tested add Nuclear Weapon, they would be in danger of losing their oil and gas that gets shipped, about 90 of it comes from china. This is very big news, indeed, because it means that the chinese are working hard and quite frankly theyre working wind doorsed doors wou to make sure that the North Koreans dont do anything to elevate tension tensions even further because its in chinas best interest that things remain relatively quiet. But involvement with our forces, unlikely. Weve got about 30,000 American Forces on the Southern Side of the demilitarized zone. And any kind of elevation of hostility, any hostilities at all will invariably involve our forces and will lead precipitously to the land conflict. Neither we nor china and north korea are interested in that while the United States and china trying to figure out what to do with those missiles. South koreas military believes new Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles were shown in todays parade. Did you see anything new in that arsenal and are any of them possibly capable of clifring Nuclear War Heads to locations around the room . Old missiles in new canisters, its not entire clear what the origin of those canister res or whats inside of them. It will take some time before the intelligence 70s figure out what that is. But in addition to that, it was what appeared in the parade to be canisters for Smaller Nuclear weapons. And, of course, what happened here is that you have to be able to mate the Nuclear Weapon, which is quite substantial, to an intercontinental about Ballistic Missile. We think that theyre about 18 months to two years away from being able to do that. It sounds like a long time, but it really isnt, which is one reason why we in china are working hard to Work Together to find some way to convince north korea to. Stop its production of Nuclear Weapons. But there are nothing necessarily in that parade that appears to be substantially new or that would be a direct threat to the United States or its allies now. The war used a maib strike on syria this week. The decision to use that bomb was delegated down to the commander in the field, which is a very good idea and something very much different from the previous administration. Because that bomb is a tactical weapon. It was used to destroy tunnels that isis was using on the border with pakistan and which we had tried to assault with the afghans have been trying to assault for some time without success. But the timing is everything. I think donald trump has a great deal of luck in timing. We did it at a time that president xi had just gotten back to beijing. And i think what the ancillary benefit of using it not just tactical on the ground and it did its job as tactical things typically do, but it came at a time when it was it had an impact on the thinking of xi and i think forced the United States and china closer together to try to solve a mutual problem, which is north korea, dara. Journal jack jacobs, great to have your insight this morning. Later this morning, Vice President pence heads the to south korea for the a tenday tour of the pacific. Kelly odonnell is with the president in florida. What counts as celebration in north korea, again, rattles nerves around the world. The norths Nuclear Capability tests pose a major problem to donald trump. North korea is a problem pro. The problem will be taken care of. Pence intends to deliver a message of unwavering support to the u. S. Ally most vulnerable to a nouk here strike. Really, the president s message, the Vice President s message is to show our support with our allies and the fact that we are there with them and well confront this threat together. While President Trump has a new frich with his chinese counterpart, in less than two weeks, with the pentagons first ever use of what it calls the mother of all bombs. We are so proud of our military. And it was another successful event. The white house made use of an Old Washington play, releasing a controversy stirring documents on a holiday weekend. This time, the Trump Administration announced visitor logs, secret Service Records showing who gets inside the white house and, therefore, who might have influence will be kept secret. Citing, Grave National security risks and privacy concerns of the hundreds of thousands of visitors annually. Critics argue the decision undercuts transparrotsy president s pledge to drain the swamp. But what is clearly visible is the president s d. C. To palm b beach. And here in palm beach, it has become customary for President Trump to visit over the weekend. But what is different this time is that his senior team are not here this time. It is, of course, the easter holiday, but it suggests that there may not be any imminent plans for the president to take action related to the matters in north korea or other world hot spots over this next couple of days. At the same time, the president certainly has full capability to be in touch with the pentagon, with the white house from his maralago home. But it just gives you a accepts of the context in which all of this is playing out. Weve seen the president talk about unpredictability being a strength in foreign policy, but certainly the signals were getting from the white house is when it comes to north korea, caution and reassurance to allies is what theyre focused on now. Dara. Kelly odonnell, great to have you with us this morning. Why one man on the outs inside the white house may be too dangerous to fire. You dont let anything keep you sidelined. Thats why you drink ensure. With 9 grams of protein and 26 vitamins and minerals. For the strength and energy to get back to doing. What you love. Ensure. Always be you. Listen up, heart disease. you too, unnecessary er visits. And hey, unmanaged depression, dont get too comfortable. 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President trump is at his maralago estate where hes spending easter weekend with his family. Here is part of his weekly address. I also want to give a special message to those struggling americans who have felt for too long the bitter taste of hardship. I want you to know this white house is fighting for you. We should fighting for every american who has been left behind. We have fighting for the right of all citizens to enjoy safety and peace and to work and live with the dignity that all children of god are entitled to know. The democrats are sending out a similar message this morning as two of its leaders put aside their differences for a socalled unity tour starting monday. Here is dnc chair tom perez delivering this weeks address. Donald trump isnt shaking things up. Hes shaking American Families down. Democrats wont let him get away with it. Thats why im hitting the road next week with people across the country to talk about how we can come together and fight back with our shauld shawls. As President Trump retreats to the golf course, bernie and i will be taking directly to the streets and talk to voters about how the democratic part is fighting for you. New today, a warning from President Trump from onef s key supporters in congress on the issue of immigration. I am not at the level of being happy with what so far donald trump hats done. Hes gone some good things, but daca and dapa still exist. And ive told the president this. He day you dont address this, it gets harder and harder to do. His base is starting to get uneasy because they havent seen his movement on daca and dapa. Theyre not confident on the wall. But the message clear on the white house, well build the wall. Joining me now, Jonathan Allen and coauthor of the forthcoming book, shattered inside Hillary Clintons doomed campaign. Thank you both for joining me this morning. Thanks, dara. A new article in the Washington Post suggests trump delights in the u. S. Displaying its military strength. Whats his motivation here . I think people are trying to figure out exactly what all of these data points mean, if this is a pattern rather than a few isolated incidents. I think he was supported in the strikes against assad, but then the mother of all bombs gets dropped and at the same time were saber rattling with north korea. I think theres a lot of concern that the president is going to fall in love with the idea of being the muscular guy on the block. And what about Vice President pence head to go south korea today, jonathan . What should we read into that . This was a preplanned trip to asia. It has happened happens at a time when theres tension over the United States withdrawing from the Transpacific Partnership as President Trump promised that he would do during his campaign. Mike pence has several stops, one of them in south korea. I believe the first one there. So it is largely coincidental and i you know, i think going south korea is a show of american support for that side loft line. And in recent days, it seems President Trump has changed his position on number of issues. Take a listen. Ill tell you about nato. Its obsolete and were paying too much money. I said it was obsolete. Its no longer obsolete. They are grand masters of currency manipulation. President xi wants to do the right thing. We had a very good bonding. Its not just nato and china. Hes taken a much harder line on russia. Jane, how do you account pore these changes and is there any concrete policy behind these changes . We are seeing quite a few changes in that same interview that he first made newsn nato and china. He also said he supported janet yellen and could see her staying in the job at the federal reserve. He also said he had a favorable view of the export import bank. These are things he campaigned on strongly saying he would get rid of them. He came in with this Economic Policy that was different than the gop orthodox. But a as someone who covered the campaign, this is not surprising to me. In 510 days, i documented 141 policy changes, major policy changes during that campaign. As president were seeing his positions continue to shift. And i think we may see them shift as the news shift. As the days shift, were going to see new positions. But i think it does make it very unpredictable for his allies to work around him, for them to stay on the same side as him. And i