Singing about it. They all seemed to burst into song. This as the bill heads to the gauntlet of the senate. Well hear from democrat chris kuhns. This is mtp daily and it starts right now. Good evening. Welcome to mtp daly. For all the talk about getting thins done, republicans in the house have handed him his first legislative w. Make no mistake, this is a repeal and a replace of obamacare. Make no mistake about it. Make no mistake. And for a president in desperate need of a victory, the white house was swift to claim the win. Weve really been doing this for eight weeks, if you think about it. This is a real plan. This is a great plan. There is a lot of talent standing behind me. An unbelievable amount of talent. That i can tell you. And coming from a different world, and only being a politician for a short period of time, how am i doing . Am i doing okay . Im president. Hey the president just wrapped up a celebration with House Republicans at the white house. He is now on his way to new york for an event this evening. We cant deny that this is an achievement for the white house. That said, this version of the bill is far from becoming law. It now faces an uphill battle in the senate where moderate republicans and all democrats expected to oppose it. Democrats are clearly looking to use this against republicans in the 2018 mid terms. They have this vote tattooed on them. This is a scar they will carry. So it isnt, it is their vote. It is not the senate vote. It is their vote they taking. And take a listen to House Democrats during the vote. [ singing ] theyre singing, hey, hey, hey, goodbye. They think this gives their party a leg up with voters because the bill aims to do away with some of the most popular elements of obamacare. In a move to bring on more conservative members, the bill passed gives states the topgs allow insurers not to cover whats known as essential Health Benefits like maternity care, Mental Health care and hospital stays. It now allows sicker people and people with preexisting conditions more. That upset moderates. So in an effort to bring them on board, this provides over 8 billion over five years to people with preexisting conditions to help them afford care. But despite all that maneuvering, the celebrations are pre mature. Yes, the president and the republicans scored a win but it may be a short term victory. This bill is nowhere near a law and it could conceivably cost some republican members their seats in 2018. Lets bring it all in. Mike viqueira and mark murray. Mike, walk us through it. Lot of lastminute discussion. As of last week, i think any long time people in congress, if they saw how this was heading, people even on monday when they lost two key members on the republican side. They thought look, this wont happen for they will. It is rare to see it come back as it did. When they gave up the pros expects or the efforts to put it on the floor of the house. It is rare to see something revived like this. I cant remember when it has actually happened. Over the course of the last couple days, and yes, due to much of the pressure and effort on the part, not tonight gop leaders and he the whip team and steve and patrick mchenry, but also the white house. Vice president pence coming up monday, tuesday and wednesday, twisting arms behind closed doors. I think you put your finger on it. Is this a long term momentum builder toward ultimate passage of the are coveted goal since 2010 . If not a full out repeal of obamacare . Certainly an alteration of their liking. Or is it a short term sugar high . Now the hard part comes after all the back and forth. The toing and the froing. We have a list of senators expressing reservations and saying it will have to come one a different product. Rand paul, ron portman. He was just reelected. John cornyn says were going to take our time and it is going to take a while. So whether that momentum sort of peters out by the time senate gets to it, thats a key question. Youre saying a lot when you say now is the hard part. It will be very hard as you lay it out to get to the senate. So lets talk about 2018. Mark murray, what is 2018 going to be like for the republicans . How much risk are they taking . It would always be a pretty tough environment when your party drols white house and all of government. You are going to have a very hard midterm cycle. And what we are seeing right now with this vote today, one, make sure that health care is going to be may be the dominant political domestic issue for the 2018 midterm. But also it force someday republicans to take some very tough votes that otherwise, they might not have. When you look, of the 23 republican whos sit in congressional districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, 14 of them actually voted for todays legislation. And then among 35 House Republicans who are in competitive districts by the cook political report, 25 of those 35 ended up voting yes. So while some House Republicans were able to probably inoculate themselves and say this is not good for my district. I think this is problematic for me. We saw a lot of tough votes today that you can see easily how democrats will try to score points and political ads and other messaging in the year and a half before the mid terms. And no doubt theyll use the images we saw today of republicans celebrating this in the rose garden, at the white house, taking buss to get to the white house. Theyre celebrating the passage of a bill in the house. This is a bill not signed into law yet. What are the political ramifications potentially, mike viqueira, of celebrating so soon . It is the conventional wisdom has congealed in the last few hours that it was an odd event and out of place. Im going to have to disagree a little bit. I think theyre trying create this perception. I dont know if people will hold that against them. Certainly the Republican Base in their hearts and minds, probably right next to them celebrating. The question now isnt necessarily the Republican Base. It is those vulnerable members the swing districts now helping republicans. I dont see it as the big sort of loser that a lot of people think it is. I think weve been underestimating this from President Trump for quite a while now and im not necessarily on board with the whole idea that it was that out of place. You have a good point. A couple days ago everybody was talking about how this bill would not go anywhere. That it was doa. Republicans were hemorrhaging support and today they can pass it in the house at the very least. On capitol hill, thank you very much. Mark murray in our washington newsroom. Thank you. Now lets go to the panel. Amy holmes, political analyst, and the former speech writer for bill frist. Elise jordan, political analyst and former adviser for senator rand pauls campaign, and msnbc contributor and National Reporter for the New York Times. So what do you think about this . Going out and celebrating before this law. It is great politics. Theyre just trying message the narrative that we repealed obamacare and it doesnt matter what is in it. We repealed it. That was our promise. We did it. Were Going Forward. They havent yet repealed it. Theyre trying on make he have one think they did. Lets see how they fair with the smoke and mirrors of this being the big repeal does play with the public. It is also that they were dealing with their progress. Lets make this the political environment. They had obamacare reform effort that was a debacle a couple months ago. Then they went through a budget process that made a lot of conservatives and base voters extremely unhappy. They needed this political win. I understand going to the rose garden saying we delivered on our promises and thats what House Speaker paul ryan risked today. Do they run the risk that this is ball sxolt not a bill will make lives better . I dont think so. Ive been throughout in ohio and all these places where supporters are really wanting something, a big win, wanting to feel that the person who is the successful businessman. I think this will resonate. They feel and i would imagine a lot of people feel like this is a big step forward. That people are saying wouldnt happen and it really helps that people are saying for the last week that that wont be revived. Theyll never get the votes. It goes into the narrative that the media are against donald trump. The New York Times, using the score and a number of medical associations who have analyzed this, graded and it commented on it. The winners are upper middle class people, two middle class people without preexisting conditions, large employers, high income earners. The losers, people wh preexisting conditions, sick people. Hospitals as well. This i problematic down the line if it turns out that the coverage is not quite what it was promised to be. Right. And there is danger of overpromising. I can tell you the reports that the high water number for actual repeal of obamacare was at 40 and steadily going down. The majority of likely voters, they wanted piece male reform efforts. They didnt want the dramatic. When youre looking at analysis of winners and losers you just had on your report that thement on out of these very elaborate health care plans, that somehow it would be unpopular because they are unpopular items in the plans. Theyre only unpopular if you use them and they become more unpopular. The proof is in the premiums. I chafe at this saying winners and losers. This is health care and people who are, need health care because of preexisting conditions. It is not clear but it is not clear that it does. Why did they not wait for a cbo score on this . They didnt really have time to read the bills. I worked on the campaign and that was a huge applause line. In congress, they actually read the bills. Isnt there like a threeday waiting period . They ce more about the political win than the policy. Their really counting on the senate to take the load here and to take this hot potato that theyre passing along and to reform the bill and make it into something. So the Freedom Caucus can say we did what we said we would do. We signed because we have this upton amendment nouflt they go in and slash and burn this thing. Maybe even starts a new which theres some talk about that. Is the house inoculating itself . They can blame the senate now. They can say we actually took action. And then those who stood firm and said they wouldnt support the legislation can say, hey, i didnt go form at the end of the day. Any chance rand paul signs on to any form of Health Insurance reform . No. Not in this form. When you talk about health care, it is a very personal thing that people will understand very quickly. So i think republicans run the risk, it really becomes very clear that people with preexisting conditions somehow cannot afford this health care or it really hurts women. Or it really hurts low income people. The New York Times thinks it will do. That runs the risk of alienating the people who put donald trump in power. The question is whether or not theyll feel it before 2018 or 2020. It might be a while before ty realize what they voted for will make their lives harder. The Previous Administration before the election said premiums will go down 25 this 39 states. One in five consumers of plans outside the workplace. Theyll only have one insurer to pick from. We saw aetna just dropped virginia. So republicans are trying on address those problems. And it puts red state senators in a bind. We had senator joe manchin on the program the other day. He called President Trump and he said voters wont remember who gave them health care. Theyll remember who took it away from them. If this does not prove to be all the republicans say it will be, that certainly is a political risk. Ladies, love having a panel of all ladies. Stick around. Well come back later in the hour. He know that our friends in the senate are eager to get to work. They are. The new guy . What new guy . I hired some help. He really knows his wine. This is the new guy . Hello, my name is watson. You know wine, huh . I know that you should check vineyard block 12. Block 12 . My analysis of satellite imagery shows it would benefit from decreased irrigation. I was wondering about that. 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Were left with party line votes in the middle of the night a couple of sweetheart deals to get it over the finish line, in a truly outraged public. And look how this bill was written. Can you say it was done openly with transparency and accountability . Without back room deals struck behind closed doors . Hidden from the people . Hell no, you cant. Have you read the bill . Have you read reconciliation bill . Have you read the managers amendment . Hell, no, you havent. You can just change their names and i feel like i can hear exactly the same criticism coming from democrats today. What is the deal, congressman . Theres no cbo score on this bill. This was a party line vote. A slim majority at that. Sweetheart deals. We had the upton amendment, 8 billion yesterday after upton met with President Trump. 50 of americans are not confident in this bill it sound just like what your Republican Leadership said back then. I couldnt disagree more. Weve been on this bill for over six years. Ever since obamacare came in, weve been passing bills and marking up bills that then came together into what we now call the American Health care act. But this was not done over a twoweek or a threeweek period. This has been six years of hard work as we knew obamacare would fail and failing and fail it has. Wave cbo score saving well over 100 billion. Sure, there were a couple of tweaks at the end. Well get a final score that may knock a couple percent off that but were comfortable that we know theres huge savings. By the time the senate is working with this, we will have the final score. So savings over 100 billion. Guaranteed cost savings when it comes to premiums of 10 . A bill weve been working on for years. So this is so very different than what happened with obamacare. And of course we had a party line vote. Theres no wayer nancy pelosi would let a Single Member of the conference vote to repeal obamacare. Wasnt just a party line vote. There were a number of republicans. 20 republicans. We had people in of our conference on board. 93 . And were talking about states like new jersey, california and pennsylvania which are entirely different than mississippi, louisiana, florida and texas. Do those Republican Voters not matter in those states . Everyone matters. All politics are local. We did have 20 members, for one reason or another. Some from the Freedom Caucus, some from the tuesday group, some not in either group. But we have people 93 come tog. It was a Campaign Promise the president made and everyone of us made to replace the failure of obamacare. Today, 94 out of 99 counties in iowa dont have an insurance carrier at all. Part of reason is because of the lack of confidence in obamacare because of the way that republicans have gone about gutting regulation and also saying that they would repeal it. Part of reason theres only one Health Care Provider or no Health Care Providers is because of the Insurance Markets and insurance providers pulling out because of the rhetoric they were putting forth and what they were doing. You cant say that. They pulled out when they thought Hillary Clinton was going to be elected. This didnt happen in the last four months. You go back a year ago and you look at what happened in arizona. With president obama and the expectation that Hillary Clinton would be elected and they were down to one, only one insurance carrier in arizona. And even yet later during the year. Others pulled out. So no, this was the abject failure of obamacare. It has nothing to do, and