Over speeches. Thanks to this report from the times we also know he sometimes played words with friends on his ipad. He sometimes watched sports and sometimes wrote taunting emails to white house staff if their teams lost in sports that night. And said memorably the president ate a late night snack of exactly seven lightly salted almonds. That part im not sure i ever really believed. It was during one of those late nights of alone time in the treaty room, early in president obamas presidency, the night of november 2nd, 2010, president obama put in a call to the man who was then the minority leader in the house of representatives. He called republican congressman, john boehner of ohio. He needed to call him that night because he needed to congratulate him for becoming the new speaker of the house. He had to offer his congratulations for boehner ousting his own party from power and taking control of congress. They did so with an exclamation point that year. Democrats lost six seats in the u. S. Senate and lost 63 seats in the house. 63. 63 seats that had been held by a democrat instead flipped to a republican, one of the biggest single election swings, maybe the biggest. Putting in that conciliatory phone call to the guy who had just kicked his team out of congress, that was not the last indignity president obama would face over that huge electoral loss, because in addition to calling john boehner from the treaty room that night, the next day he had to go out in front of everybody and face the press. Some election nights are more fun than others. Some are exhilarating, some are humbling. But every election, regardless who wins and who loses, is a reminder in our democracy, power rests not with those of us in elected office but with the people we have the privilege to serve. I told john boehner and Mitch Mcconnell last night i am very eager to sit down with members of both parties and figure out how we can move forward together. Im wondering when you call your friends like congressman perry or governor strickland, and you see 19 state legislatures go to the other side, governorships in swing states, the Democratic Party set back, what does it feel like . It feels bad. It feels bad, jake. It feels bad. Its not like president obama was the first president to find himself in this bad feeling spot two years into his first term. I think its important to point out as well that a couple of great communicators, Ronald Reagan and bill clinton were standing at this podium two years into their presidency, getting very similar questions. This is something that i think every president needs to go through, because the responsibilities of this office are so enormous and so many people are depending on what we do, and in the rush of activity, sometimes we lose track of, you know, the ways that we connected with folks that got us here in the first place. Now, im not recommending for every future president that they take a shellacking like i did last night. You know, im sure there are easier ways to learn these lessons. Thereby, the president of the United States singlehandedly revived the venacular use of the word shellacking for all of us. President obama was right about early presidencies. The same thing happened to Ronald Reagan and bill clinton in the first midterms of their presidencies. In reagans first midterm, republicans lost 26 seats in the house. Ronald reagan was trying to be as upbeat as possible. Still, it was a conciliatory the same thing happened to Ronald Reagan and bill clinton in the first midterms of their presidencies. In reagans first midterm, republicans lost 26 seats in the house. Ronald reagan was trying to be as upbeat as possible. Still, it was a conciliatory president who met with reporters, one who talked about seeking Bipartisan Solutions with a new congress. There have been concessions and compromises in both directions on all of the major issues, and we expect to continue to work with the congress in that way. Top aides admit the Election Results were a shock. By white house count, only 50 of the candidates mr. Reagan campaigned for won yesterday. That was Ronald Reagan in the first midterm of this is presidency, 1982. Later, 1994, the first term visited president bill clinton in an epic historical loss for the democrats. Tonight, the sound you hear is the sound of a moving van backing up to the United States senate preparing to move in a republican majority. As of this hour republicans picked up the seven seats they need to take control of that chamber. We still do not have a reading on the house of representatives. Republicans need 40 seats to gain control. Theyre feeling confident and across the nation there is a republican sweep under way. The last time the republicans took control of the house was 1954, when Elvis Presley was a 19yearold unknown and Color Television was just being introduced. Tim, the republican sweep, what does it mean for bill clinton . When bill clinton promised hed bring change to washington, tom. This is not what he had in mind. If these trends continue, it will be the worst democratic appearance in a race like this in 50s years. Democrats lost eight senate seats and 52 house seats held by the then speaker of the house. That was as well years after a similar shellacking happened to Ronald Reagan, not eight years, sorry, never do math on live television. That first midterm for bill clinton, 1994, republicans called it their revolution at the time. It wasnt actually a revolution, a strong midterm showing by the republican party. The president himself did find himself struggling to string together the right words when he tried to describe it the next day. Stunned by the publics rejection of his party, an exhausted bill clinton said he will work with the majority and get the voters message. I think they were saying two things to me or maybe three they were saying maybe 300. [ laughter ] i think they were saying, look, we just dont like what we see when we watch washington. We dont think government can solve all the problems, and we dont want the democrats telling us from washington that they know what is right about everything. The president had no choice but to take responsibility. This fall he went to five states where democrats won but in 13 states where mr. Clinton campaigned, his candidates lost. In the rest of the country democrats didnt even want him to show up. The white house tried to say it was a vote against all politics but no incumbent republicans lost. The first midterm after a new president takes office is very often a dramatic loss for that president s party. It is normal for the president s party to lose ground, sometimes lose a lot of ground. The only exception to that rule in modern times was after 9 11, the shock of that attack and transformation of the country and politics there after were seen as highly unusual factors that kept republicans from losing seats they might have otherwise been expected to lose in the 2002 midterms. With those extenuating circumstances, republicans really didnt lose ground in that first george w. Bush midterm but republicans arguably paid double the next time around in 2006, after george w. Bush got reelected in 04, his party lost control of the house and senate in 2006. And thats the pattern of how it usually goes in midterms, the party that holds the white house usually has a bad night on Midterm Election nights. Thats one way to think about the elections coming up this year, in historical context. You go all the way back to Truman Administration in 1946, look at the first midterm of a new presidency, you are looking at a sea of losses. Theres a reason all those bars on that bar graph go down. It would be normal, business as usual to expect president Trumps Republican Party to lose ground in congress this november. Of course, nothing is normal anymore. How do we tell this year . How do we tell if the historic pattern is going to hold this year, this november, in a year democrats taking control of congress would mean a completely different world in washington both in terms of policy but honestly also in terms of the myriad scandals of this new administration . How do we tell whats going to happen . Short answer, i dont know. The smart money these days tends to say the generic ballot is the best metric to look at. Poll on this simple question. Which party do you want to be in control in washington, the generic ballot. Most experts say thats the best finger in the wind for these kinds of things. The problem this year, its been all over the place. Just over the past few months, the polling on that generic ballot question swung wildly from democrats being up by 10 points to democrats being up by just one point to democrats back up to a 10 point lead, to a dead tie. Heres another metric, very human one. What do the people in congress themselves think will happen to them this november. On that metric we do have a pretty clear answer. You can call it the sinking ship metric if youre feeling a little bit rude. On the sinking ship metric, what you should look at is the sheer number of republicans who are leaving congress of their own accord before a single vote has been cast. Their numbers include the speaker of the house, the Top Republican in congress, paul ryan, who announced in april hes retiring. Paul ryan is third in line to the presidency, the highest ranking republican in congress. Hes leaving, but he is in good company. On his way out the door, by our count, 39 House Republicans and four Senate Republicans have announced theyre resigning or retiring this election cycle rather than running for reelection. Yes, some democrats are leaving, too, republicans right now at least are leaving at more than double the rate of their democratic colleagues. Is the simple fact that so many more republican incumbents are leaving, is that alone a determinative sign for how tough things are going to be for republicans . Are the particular republicans leaving, leaving vacancies democrats have a good chance for picking up . Is there any reliable metric predicting these things in an era distinguished now by how not normal everything in politics has become. Joining us now is the great steve kornacki. Thank you for being here. Looking at the numbers, sot democrats are leaving some democrats are leaving, too, is this a lot of numbers on the republican side . It is. That 39, you can take some off because some are running for the senate, running for governor, theyre not really retiring and actually see opportunity this year. You look at the core group actually retiring and walking away, that number brings you has become. Joining us now is the great steve kornacki. Thank you for being here. Looking at the numbers, sot democrats are leaving some democrats are leaving, too, is this a lot of numbers on the republican side . It is. That 39, you can take some off because some are running for the senate, running for governor, theyre not really retiring and actually see opportunity this year. You look at the core group actually retiring and walking away, that number brings you down to 22. That 22, by comparison, think back to one of the last major election waves we had in the midterm, 2010, democrats got shellacked with barack obama, how Many Democrats fit into that pure retirements, 11. Half the number we have now. Go back to 2006, republicans got shellacked, how many did you have . You had eight. You want to find a comparable number to the number of core retirements, 22 were seeing now, you have to go back to 1994. You had 20 democrats that year who fit the same category. That was the year democrats lost 52 seats in the house and lost control. I think its fair to say what that number is telling us, psychologically, thats where republicans heads are in washington right now. You look at that 22, there are a lot that come from seats potentially competitive and a lot looking at their first potentially competitive reelection race and you know what, im not so much in the mood for that. I will walk away. Maybe i dont want to lose or lose a lot of money. Psychologically, its safe to say thats where republicans are, bracing for a potential of a wave this year. When you look at these things, do you think their psychological frame of mind a good metric . Thats the interesting thing. The same republicans before election day in 2016, were calling on donald trump to drop out of the race in the wake of that access hollywood tape. We cant win with trump, we need pence to be at the top of the ticket. We the top of the ticket. We know what happened there. You look at the metrics trying to analyze these things. This is a great test, a great Political Science test, this midterm. We will see how these things move, if his Approval Rating ticks up and what weve been looking at now and the last year were looking at a lot of traditional metrics pointing in one direction, pointing towards what history suggests will happen this year. If that doesnt happen, one of the questions posed by 2016, are the rules of politics permanently altered or was 2016 sort of an aberration . That story will become clear as time passes. This is a key data point this year what happened this midterm. There is a lot more to say on this subject and other things leading to november other things i want to ask you about. Dont go anywhere. Steve kornacki is our guest again. Dont go anywhere. 2016 was not a great time for democrats. Democrats have sort have been on a roll ever since. The question whether or not that is important or predictive, stay with us. November 2016, iowa we all want to know about the new thing. You know, the new, new thing. With xfinitys retail stores, you can now see the latest. Want to test drive the latest devices . Be our guest. Want to save on mobile . Just ask. Want to demo the latest innovations and technology . Do it here. Come see how were making things simple, easy, and awesome. Plus come in today and ask about xfinity mobile, a new kind of network designed to save you money. Visit your local xfinity store today. November 2016, Iowa Republicans accomplished something they had been trying for and failing at nearly 20 years. They finally took control of the entire state government. Iowa had a republican governor, a republican majority in the statehouse, but before 2016 they didnt have the senate. The iowa senate was ever so delicately still controlled by democrats, it had been for years until november 8th, 2016. Donald trump won iowa by a mile. On that big red night in iowa in the state senate, republicans took the seats of six incumbent democrats including the democratss majority leader in the senate. They took control of the senate. Here was the Des Moines Register in response. It is official. Iowa has become a red state. The majority of voters chose donald trump to become president , 5 of 6 voters in iowa are republicans. Republicans will take control of the legislature in january and the outcome has left many iowans fearful about the future of this state. Iowa, after the 2016 election coming to this reckoning. We are a red state now. It is official. Iowa has become a red state. The majority of voters chose donald trump to become president , 5 of 6 voters in iowa are republicans. Republicans will take control of the legislature in january and the outcome has left many iowans fearful about the future of this state. Iowa, after the 2016 election coming to this reckoning. We are a red state now. You can feel the implicit next. Question. Is that a permanent status . Is this who we are now forever . There followed an interesting twist in that story. A state senator passed away right before the election in 2016. Iowa scheduled a special election to replace that senator and they scheduled that special for about a month and a half after the trumpclinton president ial election where iowa had gone so red. Interestingly, they scheduled the special election right in the middle of the holiday season, two days after christmas. It was expected a democrat would hold onto that seat. That District Voted for Hillary Clinton by 17 points. When they went back just seven weeks after the president ial election the democrat in that special didnt turn in the kind of performance Hillary Clinton had shown in that district. A democrat did not win in that district by 17 points like clinton had. A democrat won that race by 48 points, which means that district alone shifted 31 points in democrats direction, right after the trumpclinton election, 31 points. Since then, if you look at all the special elections taken place across the country, thats been the party. Its been very clear which party had the momentum. Democrats running in special elections overall have seen an average shift in their favor of 12 percentage points. If that holds, if you need to add 12 points to the average democratic margin in every race in the country, that would be a huge democratic tide, right . Special elections are special. Theres reasons to be cautious about extrapolate doing much. Since the trumpclinton race, democrats have taken away a total of 46 seats previously held by republicans, many in the unlikeliest places, oklahoma statehouse four seats in the legislature flipped from republicans to democrats since trump was elected. In Kentucky District where they voted by a margin of 50 points, they just elected a democrat from the house for that district winning by 37 points meaning an 86 point swing in democrats favor in kentucky. Kentucky republicans are looking weak in other ways. The republican leader of the house just lost his seat in the republican primary. A first time candidate kentucky teacher took the Republican Leaders seat. There was the biggest flip of all flipping the senate seat in alabama previously belongs to jeff sessions. A democrat, doug jones holds the seat even though the republicans won by 28 points. They have been spooking them in red states. Kansas fourth district, elected by 27 trump, mike pompeo by 31 points still in the house. In the special election to replace mike pompeo when he got promoted to the cabinet, a democrat candidate came within six points. Didnt win but close for a district that red. In arizona, republican congressman franks district, a republican won b