Our nbc news headquarters here in new york. Day 755 of the Trump Administration and we have breaking news from today in the Mueller Investigation. The president s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is tonight facing the very serious prospect of living out the rest of his days on earth in federal prison. Things did not go well for his side in court today. Late today a federal judge sided with special counsel muellers office and ruled that manafort lied to prosecutors in violation of the plea deal he struck just last fall. Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled that manafort made multiple false statements to the fbi, special counsels office and to the grand jury. This came in a closeddoor hearing a little more than a week after another critical sealed hearing in which muellers team laid out its case against manafort. Prosecutors arguedos that manafort intentionally lied to them about matters central to the investigation, including ae meeting with russian ukrainian associate Konstantin Kilimnik at the height of the Trump Campaign, that according to one prosecutor, goes, quote, very much to the heart of what the special counsels office is investigating. Today manaforts lawyers insisted their client did not lie and that any misstatements were accidental. They also cast doubt on the credibility of a key witness, former manafort partner right there, rick gates, who has plead the guilty and is cooperating with the feds that was not enough to convince a federal judge today who ruled the special counsels office established manaforts intention to lie in three of the five cases presented. Number one, he lied to investigators about a 125,000 payment which he had tried to disguise as a loan. Number two, he intentionally gave false information related to another federal investigation carried by a Different Office and he lied to the fbi, special counsel and grand jury about his communication with that russianukrainian associate kilimnik that the fbi says has ties to russia. Now that hes breached his agreement, the special counsel is under no obligation to recommend a slighter sentence in exchange for his cooperation. Next big date in his life is his sentencing date, d. C. Court, march 13th. With that, lets bring in our leadoff panel on a wednesday night, julia ainsley, National Security and justice reporter who has been on the man no fort court beat for us, mimi roka for the Southern District of new york now a distinguished fellow at the Pace University school of law and jeremy bash former chief of staff at the cia and pentagon and former counsel to house intel. Jeremy, id like to begin with you. Did Paul Manafort just end up worse off than if he hadnt taken a plea deal with the feds in the first place and what by dint of this judges order learned that advances the ball . He may be equally worse off. A skriked felon has two tickets out of prison, one is to cooperate with the prosecutors after the conviction or after his guilty plea, tell them everything he knows, do so truthfully and hope that they join in a recommendation to the judge that he be sentenced at the low end or receive whats known as a downward departure, a shorter sentence. The second ticket is, of course, a pardon, one has to wonder whether or not this effort to lie, conceal, to obfuscate the truth from the government is motivated in part by his desire to be seen by the president of the United States as holding firm in their cover story about russian interference in 2016. Mimi, i have to say jeff toobin was talking about Paul Manafort on television tonight and i wrote down some quotes. He saw him in the last court appearance. He says his decline has been shocking. He is almost unrecognizable and appears to disoriented either walking with a cane or with the help of a wheelchair. Prison can be a rough environment especially if youre not used to it. But i also know that theres nothing feds like less than entering a deal with someone who goes back on that deal. So this can be a death sentence for him. Prosecutors dont tear up cooperation agreements as we put it lightly. Something theyll do when they think the lie something intentional significant and serious. Thats what the special counsels got to the point where they could not go forward the lies were so serious and this man who pled guilty to additional crimes now facing additional time that he was not necessarily facing before, that they needed to say, we cant go through with this and the judge found that to be the correct position. And so as everyone is asking why, why is he lying . I want to point out, what did he lie about . You laid out the three general categories. That third category about his interactions with kilimnik, it seems that specifically he was lying about the fact that he and kilimnik were continuing to discuss this ukrainian peace plan which is another way of saying sanctions relief even after even while he was Trumps Campaign adviser and for several meetings afterwards, so thats one of the core pieces he lied about and the other piece, it seems is about the transferring of this poll data so the two pieces weve all been talking about, relief from sanctions and russian interference in the election. Those are the two things he lied about and that just, you know, just sends off red flashing signals and i really think its almost beyond a doubt in my mind that manafort conspired with the russians. Still a question of who is he protecting by lying if anyone and why. Mimi just tried to emphasize one of these instances has Trumps Campaign chairman handing over polling to a russian. Thats not done. Thats not normal and to mimis other point weve had three people now, weve had flynn, weve had cohen and manafort found by a federal judge to have lied about the same thing and its all related to russia. Right, brian, so you have to ask yourself is it just the president surrounded himself with people who are not honest brokers and continued to lie to try to protect their own selfinterest . Are they all lying to cover up someone higher up than them trying to cover up something larger within the campaign . Also just want to take a moment and look at where we were in time of august 2016. At a time that manafort would have had this meeting with Konstantin Kilimnik. This is shortly after the Republican Convention when manafort was a big player in getting a prorussian platform introduced into the republican platform when trump was Going Forward as the nominee. It is also, brian, around the time that we reported at nbc where we know that people from the fbi came to the Trump Campaign and said, you should be careful because there is outside International Interference in this campaign and we are concerned about russia. They named them by name. So this was not an innocent bystander. This is someone who has set up the meetings knowing that this was unusual that this meeting was not done and continued to talk about sanction relief during this time. And the number of meetings is the other thing theyre saying manafort lied about. He said that he had this one meeting where he dismissed that peace plan as crazy, when, in fact, he went back multiple times and prosecutors likely with the cooperation of rick gates, manaforts former business partner, that is how he got to the conclusion there were multiple meetings and did so and knowingly lied about it. Jeer may bash, youve been in and around washington your adult professional like. Take a whack at explaining how unnormal this is and why all the lying about russia. Yeah, what i want to do is actually take mimis theory one click further, she posited that manafort may have been conspireing with the russians. There is another way to view it. Man in manafort was under the operational control of the russians, indebted to them financially intertwined, had developed this relationship. Was unregistered russian agent literally speaking and so in some respects when the Trump Campaign and even the candidate himself conspired with manafort about Foreign Policy outcomes in a Trump Presidency like sanctions relief like undermining nato in effect he was conspiring with a russian agent and therein lies an element of conspiracy i dont think weve really explored yet. The bottom line to what you just said is why this is being called the original sin of this campaign is that it spieaks to the potential illegitimacy of an election which is Donald Trumps third rail at all times. Thats right. Why would Paul Manafort who had been on the outside of american politics join the Trump Campaign for no pay . Why would he sort of seemingly drop from thin air into the lap of donald trump if he wasnt actually placed there by people who were working with him, people potentially who were controlling him and in some ways donald trump welcomed him with open arms and, again, therein lies the agreement. Less important whether or not there was any back and forth between trump and the Russian Federation, whats much more important is whether or not trump upheld his end. He received support during the campaign. He received Financial Support from the Russian Federation over these many years including the moscow trump tower deal and did trump hold up his end of the bargain . You bet you he did. Ill may for you something congressman schiff said on this network tonight. Well talk about it on the other side. It appears the judge has largely agreed with what the special counsel argued and that is not only did he lie, but the motivation here is if he told the truth about his relationship with someone affiliated with russian intelligence while he was the campaign chairman, that would be so damaging effectively to trump that it would negate his chance of a pardon. We played that because jeremy invoked pardons. It must be like having a missing man or woman in court. If part of what youre up against is something you cant feel or see and thats the potential of a pardon. Right. And andrew weissmann, the prosecutor in the hearing and the transcript you see him sort of explaining used the p word and said this is very unusual. We dont usually have this incentive. All the normal ways people are incentivized to tell the truth to the government because that is what will literally set you free are not there when the countervailing incentive is the possibility of a pardon and that could seem like the easier way out to manafort, you know, i think thats a big risk that hes taking and there are all sorts of legal complications and why he may not after all go free even if he is pardoned but, yes, it is striking to see someone from the special counsels office say that part of manaforts motive in lying specifically about these two things that weve talked about, again, the polling the polling date that that would have been valuable to the russians interfering and the sanctions relief was that he lied because if he told the truth, you know, trump wouldnt be happy with him. I mean thats really another way of saying it. Thats incredible. Take 30 seconds and tell me what you hope at the end of all of this wherever it takes us people learn about feds and federal judges. I hope they learn that theyre not motivated that their main motivation is the law and the facts and they are not coming from the political place that so many other areas are and judges and prosecutors personally have political beliefs, but when they are investigating a case they really try to lead be led by the facts and the law and not their politics or personal beliefs. Julia, one more for you. That is this manafort associate who was a new one to several of us, sam patton has also decided to cooperate with the federal government. For those for whom this is a new name on the roster, please fill us in. Sam patton has a lot in common with Paul Manafort. They worked together. There are a lot of links here. He too was a republican political consultant and he was charged with lobbying on behalf of a prorussia Political Party in ukraine. Another charge we saw come down on rick gates and Paul Manafort and serves as a foil right now for how easy it could be for Paul Manafort if he cooperated. We know that sam patton has aggrade to cooperate with prosecutors in d. C. Because of a referral that grew out of Robert Muellers office and also will cooperate about how he tried to use straw purchasers to get russian oligarchs into the inauguration. Another thread well be pulling on for weeks or months to come but he is someone who has a sentencing date set up. Being cooperative. Thats how easy things could have been for Paul Manafort given he was charged with more. He was more involved in the campaign but it was as easy as that. As weve gone over tonight there were a lot of irrational decisions from the outside in Paul Manaforts case when you look at how straightforward it was for sam patten. Sometimes i swear theres less talk in russia than there is here. Our thanks to our panel for straightening stuff out for us. Coming up, President Trump plans to look for land mines in this new border deal legislation. One of his closest friends in the senate, can you guess who, warns declaring a National Emergency may still be on the table that will make for an interesting friday night. Later the democratic candidate mulling a president ial run who may have gotten a big boost this week from trump. Deep in the heart of texas. That and more when we come back on a wednesday night. I think the president is inclined to accept the agreement and move on and try to find money elsewhere and most likely declare an emergency i think is generally the plan. But we really dont know until you get the details of the bill. Discussed that with you the National Emergency is still on the table . Definitely on the table. I will let him tell you whether or not hes going to do. But hes very incline to go that route. Just a casual tossoff reference in the hallway there. Lindsay graham saying his buddy the president is inclined to accept a bipartisan agreement to avoid this looming shutdown and perhaps declare a National Emergency to fund his border wall. Today multiple sources told nbc news the president is, in fact, likely to sign that deal. They also quickly cautioned there is nothing set in stone because this white house has yet to see anything in writing among other things. We just learned the final text of the legislation has been completed at long last. We are waiting for it to be released. Senate is expected to vote first on the bill tomorrow then the house. This morning trump said that he would be scanning the compromise for any hidden surprises. We havent gotten it yet. Well be getting it. Well be looking for land mines, because you could have that, you know. Its been known to happen before to people. But we are in very good shape. And were going take a look at it when it comes, i dont want to see a shutdown. A shutdown would be a terrible thing. Nbc news reports this compromise agreement, quote, provides nearly 1. 4 billion for 55 miles of new border fencing. Which could include steel slats and other existing technologies. During an afternoon event with law enforcement, trump again repeated his claim the wall is being built. The wall is very, very on its way. Its happening. As we speak. We are building as we speak in the most desperately needed areas and its a big wall. Its a strong wall. Its a wall the people arent going through very easy. Youre going to have to be in extremely good shape to get over this one. [ laughter ] they would be able to climb Mount Everest a lot easier i think. Not everybody agrees with that. Today ann coulter for one was back at it trolling the president , quote, announcing the trump border trellis, not just a garden trellis, it might extend for yards and yards. And lets not forget there is still rick wilsons compromise suggestion of a freedom ditch. With us to talk about all of it. Philip rucker, bureau chief for the Washington Post and eliza coll klines who covers congress for a living. Take us inside the west wing. I know the wall is very, very on its way. What is going on do you think inside the white house . There is a realization that the 35day shutdown of december and january was a political loser for him. So theres nobody really nobody who is encouraging the president to have a second shutdown and continue the fight with congress over the border wall. So what theyre preparing to do is for the president to sign this spending bill once it reaches his desk later this week and try to take executive action to secure more funding more funding, more money, reallocating more dollars towards that wall and put on a Public Relations show to try to claim this as a victory. But the president knows its not anywhere near the 5. 7 billion that he was demanding for congress. And this is really something of a political defeat for him. Not being able to get more money from congress for the wall. Eliza, is it fair to cast this in hannabarbera terms and say folks are anxious to pull the pin out of this grenade. Get it passed and toss it down pennsylvania avenue. I think so, thats why you are seeing people on both sides, saying, yep, we are okay with the deal even though we havent seen the text yet. We are seeing the bill rushed through. Of course it has to be on the president s desk before friday at midnight because part of the government would lose funding after that. So well see the senate move tomorrow, then the house. And they are just kind of trying to move things along really hopi