In jerusalem israel. Just one day left until election day. It is monday, november 3rd, 2014. This is the daily rundown. With less than 24 hours to go until polls open, candidates are trying to convince anyone left whos not yet sure. President obama made his final midterm stop last night at Temple University in philadelphia. Listen. Yall have to vote. Thats what this comes down to. Youve got to vote. Straight forward. Ive got a simple message. We got to vote. Across the country, a crowd of candidates in tight races and their surrogates are saying the same thing, show up. These last 48 hours, they are desperate. Theyre desperate. Theyre throwing every last bit of mud they possibly can. Dont you get tired of watching all these negative ads . Theres a reason they buy them. They work. They just get inside your brain. Kansas has become the battlegrou battleground. And they want to defeat pat roberts. We cant lose any republicans or its going to be harder to get to the majority. A vote for greg orman is a vet for obama. His failed policies go by the name of Michelle Nunn. When you have someone voting so much with the president , its difficult to say youre fighting for New Hampshire. We dont need to impart a senator who is going to export or jobs. We are completely in a very tied race. Its all about who comes out and votes. Message is clear, get out and vote. Our ground game is whipping their ground game. The best organized ground game ive ever seen in a midterm. Weve raised all the money we can raise. We bought all the tv time we can. And dropped all the mail pieces we can. Well be celebrate on Election Night with some indeed. In our new nbc news poll it is a deadlock. 46 say they prefer republican controlled congress. 45 say they want democrats in charge. In many of the battleground states that matter, the republican edge is bigger. In kentucky, Senate Republican leader Mitch Mcconnell leads democratic Alison Grimes by nine points. In georgia, republican David Perdues lead smaller, just four points ahead of democratic Michelle Nunn. If neither gets 50 of the vote, that race advances to a january runoff. Perdue leads a hypothetical twoway runoff race by two points now. Meanwhile, to the bayou, louisiana. Landrieu leads republican cassidy by eight points in her threeway race. That race is also likely to go into overtime. Cassidy has the edge in that runoff, 5045. Lets kick it off today with chuck todd, moderator of meet the press. Always good to see you, sir. Thanks for being with us. Which states are we watching tomorrow night . Which states are going to tell you whether republicans win control of the Upper Chamber . Let me show you a little gadget we have here. Call it a little what if map here. But its a sliding state situation that we have here. Its a little bit easier to look at then the map itself. So here are ten states that we think are essentially still competitive. Theyre single digit races at this point. So if you go with where the republicans are leading right now, so go ahead and add kentucky to the republican column. Republicans feel like theyre ahead here in arkansas. You add that to the republican column. Now theyve got to find four races here. If we assume louisiana and georgia end up in runoffs, weve got the unknown kansas independent here. Iowa and colorado, lets say you assume the polls are right in both of these places and you give them to the republicans. Suddenly, you see theyre stuck at 49. This thing comes down to an incredibly late night maybe in alaska or we could find out early with New Hampshire and north carolina. To me, thats what well know early on in the night. This is where polls close very early. If democrats hold serve in both states, then all of a sudden you see we could have a fascinating long Election Night. Waiting for returns in alaska. The two runoff races. And then this unknown independent. What does he do if roberts loses. So this map is surprisingly complicated. Even if it looks like republicans are going into tuesday with an advantage. The number of governors races also on the ballot. Looking at another nail biter in florida . Definitely in florida. Arguably 18 of the 36 governors races are competitive single digit races now. Unbelievable. As much as an antiincumbent atmosphere than anything. Florida, your home state, connecticut, wisconsin, illinois, these are all going to be nail biter races. How much trouble is malloy in in connecticut . You look at the quinnipiac poll this morning and think, wow, did malloy get a good bump over the weekend . I feel like its the exact same race we saw four years ago except maybe democratic turnout is a little bit better. Remember, its a big republican year four years ago and malloy hung on i think it took a couple of days for us to call that race. You got to think he feels a tiny bit better now given its a rematch. I think a lot depends on what that Third Party Candidate does. Always good to see moderator of meet the press. Not planning on sleeping for 48 hours. We got him when he was fresh. Lets turn to some more numbers. Showing the backdrop behind the polls tomorrow. The president of course as you know remains wildly unpopular it his job ratings stuck at 42 . 67 of voters say they would like to see, quote, a great deal. Or quite a bit of change in the direction that hes leading the country. Voters say domestic issues are more important to them than crises like ebola deciding the issues. The top issue, the economy. Republicans have a much bigger advantage. Republicans also lead on which party can change how things can work in washington. But the Republican Party also continues to have a brand problem. Just 29 say they view the gop positively. Just 24 have a positive impression of congressional republicans. In a positive sign for democrats, interest levels in the election are up among core constituents. Roughly equal percentage of democrats and republicans call themselves very interested in the midterms. But democrats should be worried about this number. Our survey projects that younger voters, voters between the ages of 18 and 29, will make up just 11 of the electorate. Thats down big, from 19 in 2012. Voters age 65 and older meanwhile expected to make up 24 of the electorate. Up from 16 in 2012 and 21 in 2010. Lets bring in our bipartisan polling team. Democratic pollster peter hart. Republican pollster bill mackinturf. Lets start with how this thing is going to be different from 2010. How is this election going to be different . One difference is i think its a great night for republicans tomorrow. Nobody could match what happened in 2010. So what i say is if you beat your best opponent in football by two touchdowns winning by a field goal all of a sudden doesnt seem exciting. I think its a republican night. But nobody can try to match what happened in 2010. If we gave them three seats, we would be very happy. We would hold the United States. Look, you said it and stated it well. As did chuck. A lot of moving pieces. It does come down to one thing. Are people going to vote . Whos going to vote . I think for the democrats, the biggest challenge is they have to be able to compete in what we call purple states where theyve barely won in the past but they have to this time around. The chasm between young voters this time around and young voters back in 2010 . If it turns out to be this way, that will be the major story of the night. That is, the turnout that just did not happen for the democrats. Because the young people, theres a tenpoint edge that goes on the democratic side. They dont come out to vote, democrats lose. Bill, whats the whats the one warning sign from the polling that you take away for your party . Were seeing an increase in democrat intensity. We have something called the generic vote. Vote either republican or democrat. Thats tied. Going into 2010, that was republican by five points. So were having a fair fight. I think the republican advantage is were having a fair fight in not great places for democrats, which is in the core Southern States. Which states are we watching that will give us clues about whether the gop takes control of senate and whether theres this National Wave we continue to talk about . Will tell you i think its going to be more of a tactical wave rather than a National Wave. And what were going to look at give me a difference between the two. Well, a wave means youve changed the whole dynamic, of whats going on in congress. Thats like 1974, 1994. This is going to be youre running on home cooking. Youre doing well. And youre red republican states. But essentially, the whole dynamic of the congress does not change. The seats may and the majority may. But more importantly is what do we do with those purple states . Youve got to look at colorado. Youve got to look at iowa. Youve got to worry about New Hampshire. Youve got to look at north carolina. Those are four states bill and i have talked about. Those are states that are obviously going to be at the crux of how things turn out. The one other thing i would say is were not going to know exactly on Election Night. This is going to be an overtime. Dont jump to conclusions. Talking about georgia and louisiana. Same states for you, bill . I think chuck said it well in terms of north carolina. In georgia, we might see the republican drifting at or around 50. If that happens, all of a sudden, this expectation we may not know could be resolved. We might know by wednesday whether or not theres a republican senate. I think it depends on do republicans carry colorado. There have been 26 different polsters in colorado. As one pollster said, not one of them have had the same number. Its a cautionary note for pollsters. Thats why im very intrigued in what happens in that state. Its an all male ballot. It will be really fascinating. Up next, two senate races two very different stories. Were live in iowa where republicans are feeling good about their chances picking up a senate seat. Plus, this. People are just frustrated. They are, and some of that is at you. Telling those stories to me, i take it to heart. They know me. They know ive been fighting for them. I have to remind them of that. Also live to kansas where Nbcs Kelly Odonnell caught up with the man who may be the most vulnerable republican senator. First, though, a look ahead at todays planner. Later this morning, attorney general eric holder and epa mccarthy will announce an historic settlement in a Green House Gas enforcement cass. Much more tdr right after this. I tell them aveeno®. Because Beautiful Skin goes with everything. 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Be sure to talk to your doctor before you begin an aspirin regimen. A remote that lives more wifi in more places. A Movie Library you can take wherever you go. Internet speeds that have gotten faster 13 times in 12 years. The innovators and inventors at comcast labs are creating more possibilities for more people every day. Comcast nbcuniversal. Bringing media and Technology Together for you. With less than 24 hours now before polls open, democrats are on the defense it most of the Competitive Senate races on the ballot tomorrow, but not all of them. In kansas, longtime senator pat roberts has seen his lead in the polls disappear and now finds himself in a dead heat with independent candidate greg orman. Nbcs Kelly Odonnell asked the senator if he felt pressured to win to lock up a republican majority in the senate. The victory can be one of the victories that can assure every majority in the senate change things, you know, get things done, end the gridlock. As far as pressure on me, ive always taken every campaign very seriously. Im a marine. We take the hill. Regardless of the hill. A new fox poll likely voters in kansas shows roberts trailing orman by a point. Nbc merris polls shows him with the onepoint lead. If republicans lose the seat in kansas, they have a good chance of gaining a seat in iowa. A new poll shows ernst leading braley by seven points among likely voters. Organized a Conference Call with majority leader harry reid to try to rally Iowa Democrats behind braley. He said a victory by ernst could seal the deal for republicans. Quote what joni ernst would mean coming to the United States senate is that Mitch Mcconnell would be the leader of the senate. Someone who agrees with her on virtually everything. Think what that would mean to our country. Were watching both races closely. Nbcs Kelly Odonnell is in kansas. Luke russert is in des moines, iowa. Luke, bruce braley appears to be in pretty bad shape. Not even winning his own district at this point i understand. Has ernst pulled away . Yeah, craig, on saturday night, a just real big heap of bad news for the braley Campaign Came out in the Des Moines Register poll, showing him down here by seven. There are two things within that poll particularly alarming. You mentioned hes trailing his own congressional district. On the issue of who cares more about people like me, he also trails joni ernst. Thats surprising because usually democrats most often win that issue against republicans. Ernst leading in terms of medicare and social security. Thats something bruce braley put a lot of money on. So that poll, while its an outlier, is considered the Gold Standard here in iowa and its particularly alarming. Democrats are saying we cant pay all that close attention to it. Theres other polls that show it closer. Even if you look at the strength in the ground game democrats have, which is supposed to be good for two or three points perhaps, the seven point margin in the Des Moines Register poll, even if you put the democrats through the three points there, means ernst still wins by four. Theyre facing some stiff head winds. It does not help with the recent comment that tom harkin made which i think youll ask me about as well. Retiring senator tom harkin. It just caught my attention. He said, quote, theres sort of this sense. Hes talking about ernst here. Theres sort of this sense that, well, i hear so much about ernst. Shes really attractive. And she sounds nice. I got to thinking about that. I dont care if shes as good looking as taylor swift or as nice as has there been any backlash on the ground with regard to that comment . Ernst said this morning she was offended. If her name was ernst, tom harkin never would have said the thing. Will this sway voters . Maybe a few. You and i are talking about this right now. Hark harkin, who was trying to push braley over the top especially in eastern iowa campaigning with him, it kind of makes him a little bit of damaged goods now. Its just an enforced error that comes at awful time for the braley campaign ahead of the Des Moines Register poll on saturday. It didnt seem extem rainious either. I know you talked to senator roberts. Whats the sense you got from him . Does he feel like this thing is really starting to slip away . Actually, they believe theyve closed it because greg orman was up by a substantial margin in polling earlier. They feel there has been a Closing Argument that favors them. What makes this so hard to assess, craig, is that were talking about craig orman, an independent. Now, republicans say hes really a democrat when it comes to issues like abortion rights, immigration. He had voted for the president in 2000. Donated money to Democratic Candidates including reid. Greg orman has told me he is really upset with both parties and hes trying to create a new space for all of those voters who are also upset at washington. What roberts has tried to say is its not about him, if voters have been tired of him and upset with him. Its about a republican majority in the senate and its about issues that typically conservative kansans feel strongly about when it comes to immigration or abortion rights it hes trying to say, dont look at me if im been an imperfect servant, look at the bigger issue. Well have to see if that works. No question greg orman has had appeal. His ads have been humorous. Theyve been theyve been ubiquitous of course. People are curious about him. Some have also said theyre not quite sure what kind of senator he would be because thhe wont y which party he will align with. Still a wit of an enigma. Thank you to both of you. Moving from the senate to the house, democrats are facing extremely long odds in their battle to take seats away from Speaker Boehner and the republicans. Right now, republicans have an edge of 233 seats to 199 seats. There are three vacancies. Two democrat, one republican. In order to gain control, republicans will have to net 17 seats. Heres why th