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Transcripts For MSNBCW The Place For Politics 2016 20160316
Transcripts For MSNBCW The Place For Politics 2016 20160316
MSNBCW The Place For Politics 2016 March 16, 2016
Way to jump donald trump and to move ahead in a couple of these
Congressional District
where is the margin is razor thin in some of these, that 475 could easily become 2725 for ted cruz. Thats the difference. For donald trump, were talking about getting to 1237. This is potentially huge for him if this holds. Not only that, it is possible cruz can win the statewide vote and lose the delegates. That is what steve just showed. It looks like hes going to potentially win he could still win a lot of delegates, but illinois is shaping up to be a very similar situation by the
Congressional District
number where he will run up the score on delegates. Donald trump is not having a good night, hes on his way to having a great night. And in fact, he may make up and then some, the amount of delegates he lost with kasich in ohio, he may make them all up both in missouri and illinois, with the way hes won. His vote is always spread out and cruz is the concentrated area, kasich is in concentrated areas. Trump does well across the board. Its stunning, because the smart people looking ahead to nights like this are saying winner take all is worth watching. But what you can make up for in a geographically disbursed good night winner take all is the most misleading phrase we use, because there are seven or eight states that are winner take all. Most of this winner take all is winner take all by
Congressional District
s. Thats where this becomes a little more sophisticated. Thats where ill win the minority vote or the christian vote, that doesnt work well in a place where you have to win multiple
Congressional District
s. Same reason huckabee didnt win. You know, i know cruz wants to make the argument that says if kasich wouldnt get out of the way, kasich can now make the same way against cruz. If kasich would get out to have way, lets see how i would do in a one on one. Calling cruz, which is devastating hes got to win in arizona. He needed
North Carolina
tonight, i think, to sort of prove that he wasnt missouri, a state santorum won. But pulling off an arizona, he needs to show that hes beyond a
Christian Conservative
group. Weve got a couple of weeks where it goes dead for a while, but looking ahead, can john kasich hope to be a more multidimensional candidate than cruz . There could. Where is he going tomorrow . Pennsylvania. Not going to arizona. Thats right. He may go to utah. Utah, i think theyre going to see if utah is doable. It should not be a good state for trump. His personality shouldnt play well in utah. Well see. You live in utah. What do you think . I think utah could be a state john kasich surprises in, for sure. Both trump and cruz would have difficulty in the state of utah. John kasich is going to try to bring this race to the west, to california. Hes going to try to bring it to the northeast and rack up some wins. At the end of the day, as we go through the delegate math and the proportional allegations by
Congressional District
, still a win is a win is a win. And were getting late in the process for there to be a night as big as this one without ted cruz walking away with a state in the victory column. Once again, another very big night for donald trump tonight. Before i toss it to cleveland, i want to talk to
Chris Matthews
. If i appointed you king, how would you change american elections, would you do away with primaries, would you give us a day off to vote, would we vote online . You deal with the byproducts all the time. What would you change about the process . I like the idea of regional, every month basically one tuesday a month for four straight months, north, south, east, west, you can break them up into four regions. Primaries only. And you do it that way and each tuesday, so that you make it so youre only traveling a certain amount and all that stuff. Voting online or do you go to a place . Sure, youve got to there has to be an expectation you can vote anywhere at any time. You got a mrs. Smithers too at your polling . Lets go kind of a cross to cleveland and
Chris Matthews
. Chris . One thing i do is get rid of citizens united, completely. I think it should be back to one person, one vote. And for years we lived under a rule that corporations couldnt give money to political candidates, but i think we have to go back to something. I think getting rid of caucuses wouldnt be bad. I spent a lot of time on the air on hardball talking against voter suppression, this new republican love of i. D. Cards. A partisan advantage. I think caucuses are very complicated and they only draw a small percentage of people to them. Theyre not democratic. So no voter i. D. Cards and no more caucuses, just vote. And let the people who have always voted to vote. We should encourage people to vote and we discouraging them with citizens united. They do see a tremendous number of ads, even trump was right about that. All you see are ads, and theyre all negative. They dont help people vote. They just suppress the vote. I would get rid of everything that suppresses the vote. I would get rid of the caucuses and get rid of the voter i. D. Rules. I think that would help democracy. With the shape of or roads and airports, do you think were going to fix voting . Lets take a look at illinois. The democratic side of the illinois race, weve been talking a lot about the republicans tonight. But this one, coming right up on 80 of the vote in. Too close to call separated by the difference of the population of a moderately sized american town. And lets go to chicago. Chris hayes has been at a
Bernie Sanders
watch party in chicago this evening. Chris, whats it like at the ground level . The candidate, of course, is in arizona. Yeah, look, i think there was a lot of hope about illinois and missouri among the sanders folks. There was particularly hope here in illinois, because there has been such a strong grassroots sort of cultivated, particularly around cook county, theres a states attorneys race here, for the states attorney who didnt prosecute the
Laquan Mcdonald
police officer. She was kicked out tonight. A lot of action on the left. Yet still sanders lost cook county by about eight points to
Hillary Clinton
. I think that indicates hes probably going to fall short. Now, in the sort of apportionment scheme we have on the democratic side, that find in the sense that it hits proportional and he wont suffer some winner take all defeat. The problem is coming out of tonight, looking at a path forward where he has to now winsome where between 60 , 70 of the remaining delegates. The further you go in the process without winner take all, with proportional delegates, the harder it gets. So nights tonight in a place like illinois where they could have had a michigan style upset, the more nights you go with that, without getting those kinds of results, the harder it is to make up that lead
Going Forward
. You can feel a little bit of the muted disappointment right here. What still remains a well motivated campaign, but its at the ground level where the rubber meet tls road. Chris hayes, thanks. Lets go to casey hunt who has been traveling with the
Sanders Campaign
. Since
Bernie Sanders
is going to be in phoenix, arizona, he did not give a speech about tonights results. He just did do his standard rally speech. Casey . Reporter thats right. I was watching some of these late returns come in backstage with jeff weaver and the sort of brain trusts on the
Bernie Sanders
campaign. They insist they are going to keep
Going Forward
with the same strategy, but they acknowledge it is a much tougher road. The mood overall is much more grim than it was a couple of hours ago. Theyre now looking carefully at those returns in illinois. When i was standing back with them, they were hoping to keep the margin in that allimportant cook county below ten points and they were looking at missouri. But thats not where they wanted to be tonight. They wanted to be talking about ohio and being closer than they expected in
North Carolina
. Thats not what they were talking about. That staid, theyre going to soldier on and theyre talking about how theyre going to try to squeeze delegates out of this process. Think about how rand paul squeezed delegates out of caucus states in 2012. Sanders is in arizona on thursday for an afternoon rally and idaho on friday. But they know theyre going to have to win some of these big states, wisconsin, pennsylvania, et cetera. And it doesnt look like thats in the card it is you read into these results tonight. When you say theyre looking to squeeze some delegates out of the process, does that mean they have a dedicated, highly organized effort where theyll try to talk their way into delegates that they didnt win on
Election Night
. Reporter theyre trying to organize
Something Like
that. One thing about the
Sanders Campaign
is even they in some cases were surprised by the fervor. So theres always been the scramble to catch up on the organizational front. That said, youll remember these conventions are dominated by the most committed, most aggressive set of supporters. I think its clear that the sanders supporters on this democratic front, even as
Hillary Clinton
has seemingly continued this march to the nomination. So they certainly have plenty of people available to focus on this. Its not clear how successful theyll be. Youre talkingable dozens of delegates, not hundreds of delegates and its looking like the number that they need is in those hundreds. Casey hunt for us in phoenix, arizona. Thank you. We are going to take a break in our coverage. When we come back, well update you on all the outstanding races tonight. And the delegate totals so far. Man 1 i came as fast as i could. Whats up . Man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Lets take a look at whats still outstanding on whats been an outstanding night for more than one candidate tonight. Gop primary in the state of missouri, too close to call. Separated by just north of 3,000 votes, remains 99 in. Democratic primary in missouri, too close to call, larger difference between the two candidates with less percentage of the vote in. Democratic primary in the state of illinois, 82 in. Too close to call. Clinton and sanders separated by about 45,000 votes. So weve obviously got two outstanding all states are outstanding. Thank you very much. We have a trophy for participating. Everybody gets a ribbon. Illinois and missouri not called on the democratic side. And on the republican side, no call in missouri. But in terms of whats going on in the democratic race right now, its not just states, its the overall march toward the nomination, for which were going to bring in steve kornacki. Weve put sort of a scorecard together to give you a sense of how the night is shaping up in terms of delegates on the republican side. This is where we started, when we came in tonight. This was the score. We know donald trump took 99 delegates in florida. We also know that john kasich took 66 in ohio. Were figuring out what is going to happen in the rest of the states. To give you some ballpark figures here, it looks like donald trump in
North Carolina
is going to take say roughly im sorry here. Hes going to take roughly 28 delegates in
North Carolina
. Zero in ohio. Again, this is rough here, but about 43 delegates in illinois. Again, we just showed you this huge range on missouri. Right now, this is subject to change, right now we had it at 47. So if you start adding these things together, doing the quick math here, this is going to take you to 499, 598. 641. 688 from this would be the total that donald trump walks away tonight. Marco rubio may add a couple to his column from
North Carolina
. He might be around 170 at the end of the night. John kasich might be sitting here around 129 at the end of the night. Ted cruz might be sitting around 420 at the end of the night. This is a rough gauge of where the delegate thing is heading right now. Chuck todd, when you look at that, what does it tell you . The cruz people themselves will tell you their goal was to be under 250 tonight in the margin between them and trump and they were hoping a really good night would have had them down to 200. Instead its over 250. You know, missouri and illinois, the dominance there, he basically is about 40 delegates short of where we thought he would be had he won both florida and ohio. So the point is, trump almost made up for the ohio loss tonight by the way he won illinois and missouri. Allow me to introduce and introduce our guests. Ben ginsburg joins us. Funny, we were just talking about you. And nicolle wallace. I have a ginsburg question. This is not a big forecasting one, but just a question that everybody i know is asking me via text message is what happens to marco rubios delegates . Marco rubios delegates, it depends on the law of the individual states. Most of them will be unbound. So that is a big story of this evening. That another 159 delegates go into the unbound pool on the first ballot for a frontrunner shy of a majority to pick from. Thats true whether or not marco rubio endorses anybody. An endorsement is something that applies to him. It does not bind his delegates, it is a suggestion not a command. This is basically the republican version of super delegates. How many unbound with rubio . 166 before this, so 159 now, so thats 320, which is a lot of margin. Now, does that mean, forgive my mathematic ignorance, but does that make it harder for anybody to get over the threshold they get to get to without it going to a second ballot . No, because these are unbound delegates. The bound delegates that are won, this gives a frontrunner a bigger pool from which to fish. So from june 8 to july 15, thats before the start of the republican convention, the unbound delegates are going to have a lot of free trips . I think so. There are a lot of ambassadorships out there. It is funny and creepy in sort of equal measure. But to be specific about it, would it be illegal or would it be disallowed for a delegate to accept literally a suitcase full of cash in exchange for their allegiance at the convention . That is a great legal question. Im not sure there is an answer. You would not want to be defending who just took a suitcase of cash for a vote at a convention. What is do you have in your legal toolbox to lure me if im an unbound delegateso sodelegat . Beyond my smile, youll describe to people why you will create a better america, and we have a role that we need you to play to help us make the country great again. Who picks these unbound delegates . Who is going to be you worked for mitt romney. You made sure people that were delegates for mitt romney in state x were mitt romney people. So whos going to be in charge of deciding who is picking these unbound delegates . Its part of the way the
Republican Party
does this. This is up to the rules of every state about how the delegates are chosen. Now, in broad stroke, the candidates themselves get to pick about 20 of the delegates. 80 of the delegates, 75 to 80 of the delegates are chosen by a unique state process. Its a convention in some states. Its the state executive
Committee Meeting
and deciding, where in the past the main goal was to get your brotherinlaw a delegates position. Now all of a sudden the
Trump Campaign
will make sure they are trump loyalists that are the delegates. The
Cruz Campaign
will have an operation to make sure theyre cruz loyalists. So the stage will shift to these very unique county and state functions where people go through the raw politics in kind of a practice rounds. When we say choose the delegates, just to be super specifics, were talked about named actual people. Yes, we are. And then what happens to them in terms of people trying to persuade them could include suitcases full of cash . Where were talking about who the nominee will be of a major party for president of the
United States
, the stakes can keep going up and up and up and up. I dont mean to be weird, but one of these potential nominees is somebody i dont think has great qualms about using techniques and tactics and means of persuasion that would typically be seen outside of the political process. But the history of the political process is a lot of horse trading in this. This might involve actual horses. Not since 1976 has it involved actual horses. The entire reason were having this conversation is so some day, someone can walk up to the delegates who have pledged to this guy, who has been elected as part of a movement this year. The first genuine movement weve seen in a long time and say, your votes dont count. Well, theyll all count, but delegates will have their own consciousness to be appealed to by the different candidates. So the way this will work in practice is that the delegates are bound to a president ial candidate on the first valid vote. But what happens in the rules to go up to the convention, the majority of delegates and how many states, whether its a majority that actually is needed to win the nomination and countless other rules as well as credential challenges will all be decided by delegates picked in these very local, state conventions. Whats going to matter is what
Hillary Clinton
s lead over donald trump in the general matchups in the 12 to 15 important swing states on july 15th. Thats going to matter. Shes sitting on eight to tenpoint leads in several states. Then all of a sudden theres going to be panic time. But if hes closed the gap and its a coin flip, then youre going to see people i mean, thats what is going to matter. What are the general election numbers looking like by july 15th . Unless
Trump Supporters
dont care. Maybe
Congressional District<\/a> where is the margin is razor thin in some of these, that 475 could easily become 2725 for ted cruz. Thats the difference. For donald trump, were talking about getting to 1237. This is potentially huge for him if this holds. Not only that, it is possible cruz can win the statewide vote and lose the delegates. That is what steve just showed. It looks like hes going to potentially win he could still win a lot of delegates, but illinois is shaping up to be a very similar situation by the
Congressional District<\/a> number where he will run up the score on delegates. Donald trump is not having a good night, hes on his way to having a great night. And in fact, he may make up and then some, the amount of delegates he lost with kasich in ohio, he may make them all up both in missouri and illinois, with the way hes won. His vote is always spread out and cruz is the concentrated area, kasich is in concentrated areas. Trump does well across the board. Its stunning, because the smart people looking ahead to nights like this are saying winner take all is worth watching. But what you can make up for in a geographically disbursed good night winner take all is the most misleading phrase we use, because there are seven or eight states that are winner take all. Most of this winner take all is winner take all by
Congressional District<\/a>s. Thats where this becomes a little more sophisticated. Thats where ill win the minority vote or the christian vote, that doesnt work well in a place where you have to win multiple
Congressional District<\/a>s. Same reason huckabee didnt win. You know, i know cruz wants to make the argument that says if kasich wouldnt get out of the way, kasich can now make the same way against cruz. If kasich would get out to have way, lets see how i would do in a one on one. Calling cruz, which is devastating hes got to win in arizona. He needed
North Carolina<\/a> tonight, i think, to sort of prove that he wasnt missouri, a state santorum won. But pulling off an arizona, he needs to show that hes beyond a
Christian Conservative<\/a> group. Weve got a couple of weeks where it goes dead for a while, but looking ahead, can john kasich hope to be a more multidimensional candidate than cruz . There could. Where is he going tomorrow . Pennsylvania. Not going to arizona. Thats right. He may go to utah. Utah, i think theyre going to see if utah is doable. It should not be a good state for trump. His personality shouldnt play well in utah. Well see. You live in utah. What do you think . I think utah could be a state john kasich surprises in, for sure. Both trump and cruz would have difficulty in the state of utah. John kasich is going to try to bring this race to the west, to california. Hes going to try to bring it to the northeast and rack up some wins. At the end of the day, as we go through the delegate math and the proportional allegations by
Congressional District<\/a>, still a win is a win is a win. And were getting late in the process for there to be a night as big as this one without ted cruz walking away with a state in the victory column. Once again, another very big night for donald trump tonight. Before i toss it to cleveland, i want to talk to
Chris Matthews<\/a>. If i appointed you king, how would you change american elections, would you do away with primaries, would you give us a day off to vote, would we vote online . You deal with the byproducts all the time. What would you change about the process . I like the idea of regional, every month basically one tuesday a month for four straight months, north, south, east, west, you can break them up into four regions. Primaries only. And you do it that way and each tuesday, so that you make it so youre only traveling a certain amount and all that stuff. Voting online or do you go to a place . Sure, youve got to there has to be an expectation you can vote anywhere at any time. You got a mrs. Smithers too at your polling . Lets go kind of a cross to cleveland and
Chris Matthews<\/a>. Chris . One thing i do is get rid of citizens united, completely. I think it should be back to one person, one vote. And for years we lived under a rule that corporations couldnt give money to political candidates, but i think we have to go back to something. I think getting rid of caucuses wouldnt be bad. I spent a lot of time on the air on hardball talking against voter suppression, this new republican love of i. D. Cards. A partisan advantage. I think caucuses are very complicated and they only draw a small percentage of people to them. Theyre not democratic. So no voter i. D. Cards and no more caucuses, just vote. And let the people who have always voted to vote. We should encourage people to vote and we discouraging them with citizens united. They do see a tremendous number of ads, even trump was right about that. All you see are ads, and theyre all negative. They dont help people vote. They just suppress the vote. I would get rid of everything that suppresses the vote. I would get rid of the caucuses and get rid of the voter i. D. Rules. I think that would help democracy. With the shape of or roads and airports, do you think were going to fix voting . Lets take a look at illinois. The democratic side of the illinois race, weve been talking a lot about the republicans tonight. But this one, coming right up on 80 of the vote in. Too close to call separated by the difference of the population of a moderately sized american town. And lets go to chicago. Chris hayes has been at a
Bernie Sanders<\/a> watch party in chicago this evening. Chris, whats it like at the ground level . The candidate, of course, is in arizona. Yeah, look, i think there was a lot of hope about illinois and missouri among the sanders folks. There was particularly hope here in illinois, because there has been such a strong grassroots sort of cultivated, particularly around cook county, theres a states attorneys race here, for the states attorney who didnt prosecute the
Laquan Mcdonald<\/a> police officer. She was kicked out tonight. A lot of action on the left. Yet still sanders lost cook county by about eight points to
Hillary Clinton<\/a>. I think that indicates hes probably going to fall short. Now, in the sort of apportionment scheme we have on the democratic side, that find in the sense that it hits proportional and he wont suffer some winner take all defeat. The problem is coming out of tonight, looking at a path forward where he has to now winsome where between 60 , 70 of the remaining delegates. The further you go in the process without winner take all, with proportional delegates, the harder it gets. So nights tonight in a place like illinois where they could have had a michigan style upset, the more nights you go with that, without getting those kinds of results, the harder it is to make up that lead
Going Forward<\/a>. You can feel a little bit of the muted disappointment right here. What still remains a well motivated campaign, but its at the ground level where the rubber meet tls road. Chris hayes, thanks. Lets go to casey hunt who has been traveling with the
Sanders Campaign<\/a>. Since
Bernie Sanders<\/a> is going to be in phoenix, arizona, he did not give a speech about tonights results. He just did do his standard rally speech. Casey . Reporter thats right. I was watching some of these late returns come in backstage with jeff weaver and the sort of brain trusts on the
Bernie Sanders<\/a> campaign. They insist they are going to keep
Going Forward<\/a> with the same strategy, but they acknowledge it is a much tougher road. The mood overall is much more grim than it was a couple of hours ago. Theyre now looking carefully at those returns in illinois. When i was standing back with them, they were hoping to keep the margin in that allimportant cook county below ten points and they were looking at missouri. But thats not where they wanted to be tonight. They wanted to be talking about ohio and being closer than they expected in
North Carolina<\/a>. Thats not what they were talking about. That staid, theyre going to soldier on and theyre talking about how theyre going to try to squeeze delegates out of this process. Think about how rand paul squeezed delegates out of caucus states in 2012. Sanders is in arizona on thursday for an afternoon rally and idaho on friday. But they know theyre going to have to win some of these big states, wisconsin, pennsylvania, et cetera. And it doesnt look like thats in the card it is you read into these results tonight. When you say theyre looking to squeeze some delegates out of the process, does that mean they have a dedicated, highly organized effort where theyll try to talk their way into delegates that they didnt win on
Election Night<\/a> . Reporter theyre trying to organize
Something Like<\/a> that. One thing about the
Sanders Campaign<\/a> is even they in some cases were surprised by the fervor. So theres always been the scramble to catch up on the organizational front. That said, youll remember these conventions are dominated by the most committed, most aggressive set of supporters. I think its clear that the sanders supporters on this democratic front, even as
Hillary Clinton<\/a> has seemingly continued this march to the nomination. So they certainly have plenty of people available to focus on this. Its not clear how successful theyll be. Youre talkingable dozens of delegates, not hundreds of delegates and its looking like the number that they need is in those hundreds. Casey hunt for us in phoenix, arizona. Thank you. We are going to take a break in our coverage. When we come back, well update you on all the outstanding races tonight. And the delegate totals so far. Man 1 i came as fast as i could. Whats up . Man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Lets take a look at whats still outstanding on whats been an outstanding night for more than one candidate tonight. Gop primary in the state of missouri, too close to call. Separated by just north of 3,000 votes, remains 99 in. Democratic primary in missouri, too close to call, larger difference between the two candidates with less percentage of the vote in. Democratic primary in the state of illinois, 82 in. Too close to call. Clinton and sanders separated by about 45,000 votes. So weve obviously got two outstanding all states are outstanding. Thank you very much. We have a trophy for participating. Everybody gets a ribbon. Illinois and missouri not called on the democratic side. And on the republican side, no call in missouri. But in terms of whats going on in the democratic race right now, its not just states, its the overall march toward the nomination, for which were going to bring in steve kornacki. Weve put sort of a scorecard together to give you a sense of how the night is shaping up in terms of delegates on the republican side. This is where we started, when we came in tonight. This was the score. We know donald trump took 99 delegates in florida. We also know that john kasich took 66 in ohio. Were figuring out what is going to happen in the rest of the states. To give you some ballpark figures here, it looks like donald trump in
North Carolina<\/a> is going to take say roughly im sorry here. Hes going to take roughly 28 delegates in
North Carolina<\/a>. Zero in ohio. Again, this is rough here, but about 43 delegates in illinois. Again, we just showed you this huge range on missouri. Right now, this is subject to change, right now we had it at 47. So if you start adding these things together, doing the quick math here, this is going to take you to 499, 598. 641. 688 from this would be the total that donald trump walks away tonight. Marco rubio may add a couple to his column from
North Carolina<\/a>. He might be around 170 at the end of the night. John kasich might be sitting here around 129 at the end of the night. Ted cruz might be sitting around 420 at the end of the night. This is a rough gauge of where the delegate thing is heading right now. Chuck todd, when you look at that, what does it tell you . The cruz people themselves will tell you their goal was to be under 250 tonight in the margin between them and trump and they were hoping a really good night would have had them down to 200. Instead its over 250. You know, missouri and illinois, the dominance there, he basically is about 40 delegates short of where we thought he would be had he won both florida and ohio. So the point is, trump almost made up for the ohio loss tonight by the way he won illinois and missouri. Allow me to introduce and introduce our guests. Ben ginsburg joins us. Funny, we were just talking about you. And nicolle wallace. I have a ginsburg question. This is not a big forecasting one, but just a question that everybody i know is asking me via text message is what happens to marco rubios delegates . Marco rubios delegates, it depends on the law of the individual states. Most of them will be unbound. So that is a big story of this evening. That another 159 delegates go into the unbound pool on the first ballot for a frontrunner shy of a majority to pick from. Thats true whether or not marco rubio endorses anybody. An endorsement is something that applies to him. It does not bind his delegates, it is a suggestion not a command. This is basically the republican version of super delegates. How many unbound with rubio . 166 before this, so 159 now, so thats 320, which is a lot of margin. Now, does that mean, forgive my mathematic ignorance, but does that make it harder for anybody to get over the threshold they get to get to without it going to a second ballot . No, because these are unbound delegates. The bound delegates that are won, this gives a frontrunner a bigger pool from which to fish. So from june 8 to july 15, thats before the start of the republican convention, the unbound delegates are going to have a lot of free trips . I think so. There are a lot of ambassadorships out there. It is funny and creepy in sort of equal measure. But to be specific about it, would it be illegal or would it be disallowed for a delegate to accept literally a suitcase full of cash in exchange for their allegiance at the convention . That is a great legal question. Im not sure there is an answer. You would not want to be defending who just took a suitcase of cash for a vote at a convention. What is do you have in your legal toolbox to lure me if im an unbound delegateso sodelegat . Beyond my smile, youll describe to people why you will create a better america, and we have a role that we need you to play to help us make the country great again. Who picks these unbound delegates . Who is going to be you worked for mitt romney. You made sure people that were delegates for mitt romney in state x were mitt romney people. So whos going to be in charge of deciding who is picking these unbound delegates . Its part of the way the
Republican Party<\/a> does this. This is up to the rules of every state about how the delegates are chosen. Now, in broad stroke, the candidates themselves get to pick about 20 of the delegates. 80 of the delegates, 75 to 80 of the delegates are chosen by a unique state process. Its a convention in some states. Its the state executive
Committee Meeting<\/a> and deciding, where in the past the main goal was to get your brotherinlaw a delegates position. Now all of a sudden the
Trump Campaign<\/a> will make sure they are trump loyalists that are the delegates. The
Cruz Campaign<\/a> will have an operation to make sure theyre cruz loyalists. So the stage will shift to these very unique county and state functions where people go through the raw politics in kind of a practice rounds. When we say choose the delegates, just to be super specifics, were talked about named actual people. Yes, we are. And then what happens to them in terms of people trying to persuade them could include suitcases full of cash . Where were talking about who the nominee will be of a major party for president of the
United States<\/a>, the stakes can keep going up and up and up and up. I dont mean to be weird, but one of these potential nominees is somebody i dont think has great qualms about using techniques and tactics and means of persuasion that would typically be seen outside of the political process. But the history of the political process is a lot of horse trading in this. This might involve actual horses. Not since 1976 has it involved actual horses. The entire reason were having this conversation is so some day, someone can walk up to the delegates who have pledged to this guy, who has been elected as part of a movement this year. The first genuine movement weve seen in a long time and say, your votes dont count. Well, theyll all count, but delegates will have their own consciousness to be appealed to by the different candidates. So the way this will work in practice is that the delegates are bound to a president ial candidate on the first valid vote. But what happens in the rules to go up to the convention, the majority of delegates and how many states, whether its a majority that actually is needed to win the nomination and countless other rules as well as credential challenges will all be decided by delegates picked in these very local, state conventions. Whats going to matter is what
Hillary Clinton<\/a>s lead over donald trump in the general matchups in the 12 to 15 important swing states on july 15th. Thats going to matter. Shes sitting on eight to tenpoint leads in several states. Then all of a sudden theres going to be panic time. But if hes closed the gap and its a coin flip, then youre going to see people i mean, thats what is going to matter. What are the general election numbers looking like by july 15th . Unless
Trump Supporters<\/a> dont care. Maybe
Trump Supporters<\/a> are such a different political matter. If theyre short of the delegates unless theyre going to riot its also the mood of the country, too. What we saw on friday in chicago, if there are a lot of incidents like that, thats something that would part of the discussions on the floor. Dont forget the x card of a national emergency. Hate it to be my role, but im always reminding people. Paris is going to change everything for donald trump. I have to change everything in this conversation. Well be right back and well continue this after this. Perhaps a lot of people didnt bank on this being a very long night. One of the races were waiting for is democrats state of missouri. Theres the board. Too close to call. 85 of the vote in. Separated by approaching 12,000 votes. Steve kornacki at the board with more on this race. So look, it is very narrow. It looks very narrow. But theres probably some good news for
Bernie Sanders<\/a> in terms of whats left. I can tell you theres a couple of pockets here where theres significant vote left to come in. Half of the city of tlst. Louis hasnt come in yet. The bad news for
Hillary Clinton<\/a> is, its almost even in st. Louis, the city of st. Louis right now. They were expecting a much bigger lead there. Most of st. Louis county where she is leading is in right now, only a small amount left to come in there, so shes probably not going to pad her lead much more. The ace in the hole right now for
Bernie Sanders<\/a> is right here, the only other place with significant thats the wrong one, its st. Charles county. Im going to press the one right one of these days. Come on any way,
Bernie Sanders<\/a> yeah
Bernie Sanders<\/a> is leading here, so not much ground for mil mil to pick up and theres a place for
Bernie Sanders<\/a> to pad it and hes sitting on a 12,000 vote lead right now. Thank you, steve kornacki. Nicolle wallace was conspicuously silent during the entire conversation. I dont think this has ever happened. Trump supporters have been inspired by someone we dont get, but that probably means hes guarantied success. I think the things we talk about, we talk about the proposed ban on muslims and the racial undertones of his candidacy. They like him despite those things. Let me just finish, rachel. They like him because hes not bought and sold by lobbyists. They like him because he feels real. They like him because hes acceptable. They like him because he tells it like it is. He doesnt have a communications team. He doesnt have a pollster. He is everything that is totally unavailable in this cycle. I never thought i would find myself the trump defender at 11 30 at night. I worked for a president who in his private conversations with his staff was most worried about the forces of isolationism and protectionism. And that is exactly what has come to pass in my short political career. This has nothing to do with what i want to happen. There are people in this building at 11 30 at night who are quiet supporters of donald trump because hes not beholden to anybody and because he promises to break down everything they think sucks about washington. Theres a notion that people like you and me can go to a convention and take it away i didnt use the word freakish, you did. What i meant is they dont necessarily respect the political wait, wait. Theyre turning out in record numbers. The point i was making is, they dont necessarily respect the morays of the
Republican Party<\/a>. So these are people who wont necessarily respect that because donald trump is different. The issue of the muslim ban, the reason i say his supporters are with him on the muslim ban is because they tell us they are. In the states i mean the bucket of issues. Its a stunning number. 2 3 of
Republican Voters<\/a> in the states that turned out tonight in state after state after state want to ban muslims from the
United States<\/a>. Not because they held that as a preexisting view before donald trump suggested it, but now he suggested it they like the idea. That makes me marvel and lament the state of the country that nobody else can talk about. But the other people that are to blame for that state of the country are the people not offering any ideas. People are for that because theyre terrified. They see
San Bernardino<\/a> and theyre terrified. Theyre not for the ban because they dont like muslims but no one else is offering any ideas to keep them safe. So say whatever you want about donald trump, hes the arena. But you have to honor the
Trump Supporters<\/a> and listen, because theyve heard something theyre responding to in historic numbers. None of the other republicans tonight, until marco rubios concession speech, even made an attempt to talk to the trump voter. That has been odd there have been misreads of the trump voter, this idea hey, hes not a conservative. They didnt care. Thats our thing. Exactly. When you heard marco rubio tonight talking about, i didnt grow up with any money and i worked like a dog and my parents worked like a dog and all this stuff and youre like, man, that should have been thats how you talk to these trump voters. Its just like
Hillary Clinton<\/a> is trying to figure out how to talk to
Bernie Sanders<\/a> voters. Some days shes good at it, some days not. But thats why she is starting to finally make up ground and starting to beat sanders more consistently because shes attempting to talk to the sanders voter. The rest of the republican field has they have attempted to talk to the trump voter. I think this is where you have a great point. They have written him off as people they dont want at their garden party. When instead go talk to these people. Go find out what their concerns are. And i think the fear was, oh, my god, their concerns are stuff that doesnt fit our fox. Our conservative, orthodoxy box, so we dont know how to talk to them. So they smashed the box. The voters did. The mistake was a lot of the republican candidates didnt believe that trump voters existed. They were all trying to turn out the voters, all the modeling that all the campaigns did just did not really believe because the
Republican Party<\/a> didnt want to take ownership of them . No, because its been the silent group. Its the silent majority. They didnt vote in primaries before. This is where i think trumps numbers trump has moved
Republican Voters<\/a> to the primary. I dont believe hes added new numbers we dont know that. Hes moving people to the primary, hes not bringing new people into the party. The only thing that seems clear to me, when you look at donald trump on policy, this idea that he says what people are thinking or says what everybody wants to say, i do think a lot of times he says stuff that nobody was thinking before, and he persuades people to go along with that idea because they like him and like that he said it. I dont think there was a clammer on a ban to muslims to the
United States<\/a> before donald trump said there was. Now you have 2 3 of
Republican Voters<\/a> that like it. Theres something about his personality that is heterogenius. He said nice things about donald trump. Hes antiwar, antitrade policy. Hes done all these things that put him in a weird spot in that matrix. But people like who he is as a character and person and that can move a lot of people in unpredictable fays. Thats why we keep foretelling his failure when it doesnt happen in real life. Sadly, we have to go to a break again. Our thanks to ben ginsburg. A pleasure to have you here. Man 1 i came as fast as i could. Whats up . Man 2 this isnt public yet. Man 1 what isnt . Man 2 weve been attacked. Man 1 the network . Man 2 shhhh. Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. When youre on hold, your business is on hold. Thats why comcast business doesnt leave you there. When you call, a
Small Business<\/a> expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. No annoying hold music. Just a real person, real fast. Whenever you need them. Great, thats what i said. So your business can get back to business. Sounds like my rides ready. Dont get stuck on hold. Reach an expert fast. Comcast business. Built for business. And welcome back. Heres the big board. A big reminder of what is still out. Missouri, gop primary, too close to call, separated by about 2500 with still 99 how long can it be 99 of the vote in . When is somebody going to go on the record in this story . Too close to call in the democratic primary. [ laughter ] democratic primary illinois, too close to call. This whole studio exists for nicole to do her phone calls in between breaks. Lets talk about the thing that precipitated the shank of the evening, which is chuck todd, whats going on with 99 in for an hour now . And 2400 votes between them in fairness to them, when youre at this point, it just means its 99 in, but its extraneous in a lot of parts of the state. But it doesnt matter. Trump, the way the delegates are going to get apportioned by
Congressional District<\/a>, trumps going to have a i mean, this is what makes the winner take all by
Congressional District<\/a> matter and the fact that trumps vote is so all over the place. Cruz concentrates on specific
Congressional District<\/a>s. Thats great when youre losing. But in a case like this, trump is going to win more delegates out of missouri no matter what. If theres eight
Congressional District<\/a>s in missouri, hes going to win seven. Hes going to net some 30 delegates total just out of missouri. The point is, donald trump, because of missouri and illinois tonight, he won them in better fashion than even we expected. Weve been saying hes got to win 60 of the delegates. Think about the way missouri is going. His 42 of the vote is going to be worth like 75 of the delegates. Thats a good night for him. Very good night for him. Can i bring in
Chris Matthews<\/a> . The shank of the evening. Since we had ben ginsburg. Chris, can you hear us . Where do you want it . [ laughter ] chris, can you hear me . Weve got a very noisy room here brian. Im sorry. Just take anywhere you want to jump on here and if you heard the ben ginsburg conversation about defining who the trump voters are. Yeah, i think if you listen to ted cruzs speech tonight carefully, he wasnt addressing the trump voters. He was addressing the money guys. The first half of the speech was aimed at the koch brothers. It was about regulators and how were going the fire regulators. The average guy and person out there doesnt care about that. That was a direct appeal to koch brothers. The last half of the speech was the people that are middle east hawks, who had been looking at rubio as their hope. So what you saw tonight was ships passing in the night. You saw cruz still out there sporting for the money people, whether theyre business or
Foreign Policy<\/a> people and not really the people trump has been going after. I disagree with ben ginsburg, but i understand what he has to do professionally. If you see trump, hes won over 20 states tonight, with 22, perhap 2s 23 tonight. How do you deny a guy in cleveland with 30, 35 states . How do you say you didnt win . We have this other system called the second and third ballots and guys like ben will find a way to pick a nominee. I just dont think
Republican Party<\/a> can sell this as the regular means of voting. Its just going to really drive the trump people out the door. With trump leading the way, perhaps to a third party move, which will be pretty popular because hell look like a victim. Let me bring in joy reid, what do you think . I agree. Another thing that happened to tonight is that donald trump has passed the threshold tonight. He has an eightstate threshold to be placed in nomination. None of the other republicans running have met that threshold. Only trump has. So hes winning according to the rules. So theyre going to have to change rule 40, raise the threshold or alter the rules in some way that makes ted cruz or someone else eligible. I also heard ted cruz speaking right past the trump voters, talking to the rubio voters saying come with me and consolidate against donald trump. When ive been listening to trump voters talk on the radio yesterday, they werent talking about ending the epa. They dont care about abolishing the irs or changing arcane tax rules, they want a feeling of having people like them to be in charge. That is why donald trump is winning. You have to wonder what is cruz up to . If hes up to beating him in the primaries, hes not talking to the trump voters. Is he planning to be part of some grassroots right wing thing they pull off at the convention where the big shots will be behind him, the hawks tend to be big business people. The oil and gas people, all they care about is killing the epa. And getting lower taxes. So i think joy and i agree, this is not the same campaign being waged by trump and the opposition. Hes going to be the populist route and theyre trying to get the votes of hawks and republicans and big shots and people that really like citizens united. Its so fascinating how they talk in different directions. I think thats exactly right, chris. The thing about ted cruz is that you watch the way he was campaigning at the beginning of this primary and you look at his speech tonight and there is little distance traveled. Hes not changed what hes saying at all thank you, my friend. Appreciate that. Were going to take a quick break. When we come back, well be checking in on the races still not decided yet. We do not have a call on the democratic side in missouri or illino illinois. Stay with us. A lot more to come. Were back and we still have some mysteries at this late hour. We said we could be here until the cows came home. They have not yet came home. They called. Theyre on i95. And there are some democratic cows still on the loose in illinois. Very close race. The margin of 40,000 votes, where is the vote left out in illinois . Theyre almost all in now, in chicago, in the immediate area around chicago, you can see 4 still to come in, in the city of chicago. This is the other part of cook county, its so big it takes two different screens here. So
Hillary Clinton<\/a> has been winning pretty big there. Shell probably get a few extra thousand votes there. The other place to look and
Bernie Sanders<\/a> has to make some inroads is in these two counties north of chicago, lake only 9 in. Not off to a good start for
Bernie Sanders<\/a> there. Mchenry, the smallest of the counties here. Its hard to see where he will make up 40,000. But there are still pockets out there. And the other cliff hanger is in missouri. 10,000 vote lead for
Bernie Sanders<\/a>. What is left in the city of st. Louis, in a scattering in st. Louis county, in a scattering of votes still outstanding in kansas city,
Hillary Clinton<\/a>s chances, she has to make up 10,000 votes to overtake him. Can i ask a weird question, how do we have 3400 uncommitted voters in missouri . We saw this in michigan, too. You can vote for uncommitted and elect uncommitted delegates to the
Democratic National<\/a> convention. And with the difference between them, 9,000 votes, that has become an unimportant thing for people who have decided to do. Thank you, steve. When you look at these numbers and the outstanding races here in the margins, what can you tell us . I was talking to our boiler room, the guys that call these races. All three are likely to fall within recount territory. On the democratic side, you have no reason to. You dont get extra for winning the state. But missouri, because you do get an extra, and if we are truly in contested convention territory, you could make the case that if youre cruz, or trump, that is a dozen delegates. That could matter. And by the end of the night, the best well be able to do tonight is apparent winner. Youve brought us to the end of another segment. Our coverage continues right after this. Top of the hour and as night turns into day, somewhere, these are the three races we are following tonight. Barn burners all. Gop primary in the state of missouri, too close to call. Weve had 99 of the vote in on the board for what seems like hours, with a difference give or take","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia601207.us.archive.org\/7\/items\/MSNBCW_20160316_030000_The_Place_for_Politics_2016\/MSNBCW_20160316_030000_The_Place_for_Politics_2016.thumbs\/MSNBCW_20160316_030000_The_Place_for_Politics_2016_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240617T12:35:10+00:00"}