Transcripts For MSNBCW The Rachel Maddow Show 20160107 : vim

MSNBCW The Rachel Maddow Show January 7, 2016

Race in the country this year. Whoohoo South Carolina calls itself the first in the south primary for both the democrats and the republicans. For democrats its a particularly important state because nonwhite voters are such an important part and such a big part of the democratic partys voting base and the other early states, New Hampshire and iowa, theyre pretty white. So for democrats, South Carolina is really important test of the strength of their various candidates particularly among this very, very Important Group that is africanamerican democratic voters. Thats true for the democratic party. For the republican party, South Carolina has always represented a more complex challenge because after iowa and New Hampshire get their say, South Carolina is the republicans first chance to measure which of their candidates appeal to the hardest of the republican hard core. South Carolina Republicans are very, very conservative, theyre almost 100 white, they are hard line, southern Republican Base voters. And, you know, overall the challenge, right, for the republican nominee, right, is that theyve got to play to the Republican Base in order to get the nomination but then they need to pivot to be more generally appealing in the general election. South carolina is the first stop in the republican primary process for the most difficult Republican Base voters when it comes to the general election, these southern white hardliner base voters, South Carolina is where they get their first say in who the republican picks as their president ial nominee. So thats how its been for more than a generation now, thats how its been for years. This year, though, things are a little bit different. South carolina is still technically first in the south, but this year theres a lot more of the south in the early process. Because this year just a week and a half after South Carolina republicans go, you know, show themselves as the first in the south, a week and a half after that, all of these other states are going to go vote all on the same day. All on march 1st. All these southern states. Plus these other nonsouthern states, too. The mega tuesday primaries that are going to happen on march 1st this year, they will have the effect this year of making the early nominating process way more southern than it usually is. So, yeah, South Carolina is still first in the south but right on its heels is a lot more of the south. And for democrats that means the concerns and preferences of africanamerican voters in particular will be of even more electoral importance than usual in this years democratic primary. For republicans it means the party is foregrounding the concerns and preferences of not just a very white part of their base but the most hard core, most pure live white part of their base. What effect will this have on the nominating process overall . Dont know. The latest National Polling still has mr. Donald trump absolutely killing the rest of the field approximately that said, the nomination is not decided by a national vote. The nomination is decided state by state. The latest early state poll, the first one of the new year came out today. Turns out its fascinating. These are the results from the new New Hampshire poll that just came out from Public Policy polling. This new ppp New Hampshire poll shows donald trump nearly lapping the rest of the field. Hes near 29 in New Hampshire, his nearest competitor is marco rubio at 15 . Donald trump has a 14 lead in the only New Hampshire polls that been taken so far this year but whats fascinating and totally new is the first time in this poll or any other poll out of New Hampshire, there are six different candidates who are in double digits. The field could not be more split. Yeah, donald trump is still leading but look at the rest of the field. If donald trump is sort of the nonestablishment candidate and guys like Chris Christie and marco rubio and john kasich and jeb bush, if theyre the establishment candidates, the more mainstream choices, right, New Hampshires support for the mainstream establishment choices, it just couldnt be more evenly split. Its like a fiveway car crash of candidates getting between 10 and 15 there. You seed ted cruz, jeb bush, john kasich, marco rubio, that are all bunched up there, all in double digits between 10 and 15 . As long as all those establishment guys keep splitting up all of that mainstream vote, then tada, donald trump wins. Donald trump is trading the lead or tie with the lead with ted cruz, which is crazy. Donald trump is winning. When that first started to become clear, looking ahead to the weird southernheavy calendar this year, its weird how a head haired candidate its exactly why donald trump has been playing in a place like alabama where he keeps having these raucous, wallacestyle rallies. Tonight George Wallaces family, his daughter and two of his top former staffers have said they think donald trump indeed is squarely in the tradition of george wallace, he is running the same kind of campaign and he is the same kind of politician. So welcome to your southern heavy world of republican president ial politics this year. New York Real Estate developer morphs into 1960s era southern governor for the win. Because he really is playing to win, though, frontrunner donald trump is not only going for it in these unlikely venues in the deep south. This is this nutty map of all the states voting on march 1st on super duper tuesday this year. Donald trump has been working this map, which is why this week was his third big rally in the otherwise unlikely venue of massachusetts. Donald trump keeps doing big massachusetts events, which is weird for a republican president ial contender unless theyre making a super tuesday play because massachusetts is one of those states outside the south that will also be voting on march 1st. Another state outside the south that will be voting at the same time outside march 1 is vermont. We will be treated to the expect call of donald trump not on campaigning in the Bernie Sanders state of vermont but the largest city, burlton vermont. Burlington has a population of only about 42,000 people. Though small in size, the city of burlington does have a lot of attractions, including the university of vermont, which is lovely. Its situated downtown, takes up a lot of the downtown area. Theres also the site of the original ben jerrys, which ive been to, which is awesome. It boasts the historic flynn theater. It started as a Motion Picture venue back in the 1970s. If you are interested in going to the flynn theater, if you go to the flip you can catch the Broadway National tour of rag time there. And after that willco will be playing. Its gorgeous. Before all that, there is a huge act coming to the flynn theater in burlington vermont, one night only, donald trump is going to be there. Hes going to Bernie Sanders hometown, holding a trump rally at the flynn. Maybe that makes sense because alongside the deep south states, vermont and massachusetts will be voting in republican primaries very early this year on march 1st. Heres the thing about this vermont trip. Burlington is officially freaking out about this donald trump tomorrow night. Not necessarily because its donald trump coming to their town, though im certain theres a little of that, too. Its a very specific problem. The Donald Trump Campaign has distributed 20,000 tickets to this event tomorrow night in burlington. 20,000. Thats half the population of burlington. The really specific problem is that the flynn theater is physically incapable of holding half the population of burlington. The flynn theater holds only 1,400 people, including the balcony, but the Trump Campaign has given out 20,000 tickets. If those people do show up to hear trump speak, only 1,400 of them are going to get in. It will be less than that because the 1,400 seating chart includes seating for the press. That means 18,000 people could be conceivably turning up and doing what . What are they going to do . The Burlington Police chief tonight said more than 6,500 people have confirmed theyre going to attend. That is still way too many for that space. The police chief tells the Burlington Free press tonight that if it were a rock band that had handed out 20,000 free tickets, the police would of course cancel that event in the interest of Public Safety. But this is a political event. What are they going to do . This is a recipe for chaos tomorrow in lovely burlington, vermont. Honestly we have no idea whats going to happen. Chaos has been the best way to describe the whole republican race this season but tomorrow night its going to be chaos of a very specific kind. As of right now i can tell you the Trump Campaign is still giving away even more tickets online to this event as i speak. Again, they are over20,000 tickets distributed already, and the venue only holds 1,400 people. And right now they are still handing out tickets. What could possibly go wrong . Joining us from burlington is paul heinz, the Political Editor for seven days newspaper. Thank you for being with us. Thanks for having me, rachel. What happens if 20,000 people show up tomorrow night for an event in Downtown Burlington . Is Downtown Burlington equipped to handle that kind of crowd . Its going to be a mess. They are going to close down some of the streets and there are going to be tons of protesters. There will are traditional march and rallies to silent protests. If theyre not inside the flynn theater, theyre probably going to be outside making a lot of noise, maybe being silent but certainly protesting Donald Trumps visit here. Ive just been given a statement from the mayor of burlington, Myra Weinberger said vermonters value the First Amendment in robust political debate. In this spirit i welcome mr. Trump and his president ial campaign to burlington tomorrow. Theres still time for the campaign to communicate with the thousands of Ticket Holders to reduce the possibility of inconvenience or Public Safety risk for attendees tomorrow night. I urge the Trump Campaign to take appropriate steps to ensure the event proceeds smoothly and without incident. We rarely get republican president ial candidates around here. In fact, its worth noting that throughout his eight years in office, george w. Bush visited 49 states. The one state he did not visit was vermont. So we dont really have much experience with this sort of thing. President obama visited a couple times. But to have someone like donald trump who i would say its safe to say many burlingtonians disagree with, its just a difficult situation. I dont know exactly how theyre going to manage this. It going to be definitely a mess tomorrow night. Is it supposed to be wicked cold tomorrow night . Its always cold this time of year. Paul heintz, editor of seven days newspaper. I enjoy your paper. Its good to hear that. We have much more ahead tonight, including the surprising thing Vice President biden said tonight about the race for president this year and his role in it. 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Its on the subject of his decision not to run. Any regrets to not throwing your hat in the ring . Sure, i regret it every day but it was the right decision for my family and for me, and i plan on staying deeply involved. Weve got two good candidates. Im not going to speculate as to who he means by two good candidates, since theres three of them still in the race. More newsworthy is the Vice President s assertion i regret it every day. There are no signs the Vice President is going to ask for a doover, it just too late for him to reverse course but the Vice President didnt say explicitly in this interview tonight that not running for president this year is a decision that he regrets every single day. More ahead. Stay with us tonight. cell phone rings where are you . Well the squirrels are back in the attic. Mom . Your dad wont call an exterminator. Can i call you back, mom . He says its personal this time. If youre a mom, you call at the worst time. Its what you do. 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