Ertnst ahead by seven points over bruce braley. The Gold Standard poll in iowa. President ial campaigns wait with bated breath and the polls that conducted it said it looks like this race is decided, but at the same time, the average of all the polls in average has urged ahead by more than two points. Thats factoring in this new poll. The importance of the outcome of the race in iowa for the battle of control of the senate is being driven home this morning by harry reid who said in a new interview if iowa does go to the republicans, hes out as his job as majority leader. What joni ernst would mean that Mitch Mcconnell would be the head of the senate. Think what that would mean for our country. Those are harry reids words there. The democrat bruce braley and defining ad in the campaign, one in which she boasted over a bill and clinton described that as both a positive and a negative. Said she wanted to take herrer cutting skills to washington and make them squeal. That sounds good. But in order for it to work, you have to know the difference between pork and people. The first president bush is now weighing in with a lastminute endorsement of ernst said hes impressed by her dedication and service to the country. Meanwhile, the current president , barack obama is hitting the campaign trail, as well, this weekend. Gary peters and the wall street journal not alone this morning in noticing the first and only time the president has campaigned in a senate race. Well be talking more in a little bit about reports of hes already planning when this election is over. For now democrats and obama working on turnout in the final days. Aggressively targeting women. Hillary clinton highlighted minimum wage issues and in New Hampshire, senator jean shhaheen. Two parties in a statistical dead heat among women. 44 for republicans and 42 the democrats. Just a month ago, those numbers favored the democrats by seven points. So, weve got lots to discuss this morning. For that, im joined by our panel. We have Leslie Sanchez, nbc news perry bacon jr. And norm orsteen. So, lets start in iowa and with this news out of iowa. Its one of those things we always say look at the average of all polls and the average of the polls shows ernst ahead and at the same time this is considered the Gold Standard poll and some people are looking at this and saying, republicans have been talking all year that wave will come at the last minute and this is what it looks like. Thats what we see. How do you read it there . When you think of this poll individually, really one would be surprising at this point. Harry reid is right, if the democrats dont win iowa and colorado, both states where theyre trailing right now, very hard to see how democrats keep control of the senate at that point. If they lose both of those stakes, its hard to keep control of the senate. Without winning iowa and colorado. As a republican, how are you feeling about this one right snow. Very positive. Joni showed a couple things. One, she didnt run as a women. Thats an interesting difference. Im working for the middle class and one of the first women from iowa to go to congress. Whats interesting about her, she always did well with independents and you see that gap closing across the country and its not on necessarily womens issues, but economic issues. So, norm, youve actually written about this race. We put the headline up here, you have the headline from your column, conspiracy theories dont fit the narrative. So, you think joni ernst, getting a free pass here. She expressed some things that are wacky and extreme. Not only flirting with gender 21. Which is a theory that john birch but the u. N. Will turn america into a countries where you cant keep your cars or your guns or leave your homes. She made comments about people being dependent on government that make mitt romney look like a socialist. If the government infringes on my rights, im going to use it. Those things have been downplayed because the narrative this year is the republicans finally nominated main stream candidates. The main stream candidates adopted most of the tea party positions. Shes run a very focusy, Good Campaign outside of these positions. Bruce braley has run a terrible campaign. A backlisash, i think, against midterm elections. Put her in a position of being a favorite. We shouldnt think this is some centrist. Is this a race, would we even be talking about this if he didnt have that video. Hes talking to the trial lawyers and trying to raise money. You dont want a farmer from iowa and has that defined this campaign . You saw a lot of coverage of that and use it as an attack line, as well. The fact that brayley is nonincumbent. Iowa you would think of a more liberal leaning state and a close state most of the time. And just like hagan did it and he was also hurt by that. Both of sort of undefined. He did not have much name i. D. Outside of his district. She has run a Better Campaign than he did. Maybe ill ask you this, leslie. I saw an article yesterday by nate conan the New York Times this is shaping up potentially as a pretty good day tuesday and they can win back the senate and that seems more likely than not at this point. When you look at all the issues raised about the future of the Republican Party and the 2012 election. Any successes that theyre poised for in 2014, have they addressed any of the core, underlying issues for instance nonwhite voters bringing them over the party. When youre winning the senate, winning in kentucky and georgia and have you addressed any of that . I wonder how do you look at it . The Republican Party, have you seen a party that changed in 2012 or an electorate that changed in 2012 . I think there is a combination of both. Ever since 2008 and propelling president obama and democrats and independents and i didnt get what i bargain for. Ever since that you saw it in 2012, mitt romney won more of the precincts than obama won, it has been moving to the right for the republicans. This is a final test of it. You have a better candidate running in middle class and empowering everybody campaign. Shes closing the gap with women and didnt run on reproductive rights or womens issues. Those were important things. If you want to talk about republicans, they put more boots on the ground and the convergence of technology and doortodoor canvassing and those anemic trends have been closed. If the republicans do take the senate this week, president obama is in michigan, is he pushing on an open door, politically speaking, as candidates go in by 20 points there. He has not been campaigning for these candidates and trying to keep himself on the back of it for as many races. What should democrats come up with this . What is the lesson of the last two years for democrats . Part of it depends if its 51 seats or 54 seats. If you get that level of a wave, then democrats have to do some serious rethinking. But this has been largely an issueless campaign, steve. You know, we went into it, i think, with republicans believing it will all be about obama care. Hardly about obama care. Its true that joni ernst ran on a campaign and mostly about send me to washington and it had little to do with, heres the agenda that were going to push forward. I think for democrats recognizing that there may be a few things where republicans will work with them on, but largely going to have two more years of dysfunction and the question becomes not just what can the president do by executive order, but as you head towards 2016, how do you address the deep seeded public unease the public cant do anything right . I do think the war on women issues which worked really well in 2010 and the party of todd akins appears to not have worked this time. It looks like that gap is much smaller. The republicans did a good job that they really trained their candidates early on when asked about abortion, think about how you talk about that. I am for contraception over the counter. They switched, instead of oppose a and tried to down that, as well. Cory gardner avoided that attack pretty well in colorado. I think that issue around gender, i think, they handled better. They had better candidates who were smarter and more experienced. Not as many ken bucks and those were the disasters of 2010 and 2012. By far. And i think to that point, yes t was economic issues. Yes, they were better prepared candidates and they learned not to touch those lightning rod issues of immigration and reproductive rights and things that can get lost in the discussion. I think immigration, of course, is going to be one of the issues that comes back around. Part of the interesting thing about picking candidates, even if they are women, women are seen as people who come in and work across the aisle and get things done. Dick moore used to report on this years ago, this is one of the repeal of the nontraditional candidates, so to speak. Hopefully they go in, work across the aisle and make something happen. So, lets see what happens on tuesday. Obviously, the democrats right now sort of the underdogs on tuesday. Who knows. Either way, though, the government will go on for two years s until the next electio. What happens after tuesday . Immigration and a lot of other issues, too. What happens after tuesday, well talk about that next. Goal is to grow. Gotta get greater growth. I just talked to ups. They got expert advise, special discounts, new technologies. Like smart pick ups. Theyll only show up when you print a label and its automatic. We save time and money. Time . Money . Time and money. Awesome. 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So ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. Now you and your ameripise advisor. Can get the real answers you need. Start building your confident retirement today. Welcome back. Now to the question of what happens after tuesday. Peter baker writing in this mornings New York Times the president is preparing for a democratic defeat. He and his aids are adjusting the policy agenda anticipating a less friendly congress, republicans to expand trade, overall taxes and build roads and bridges. Still, with or without partners on capitol hill, obama will continue to exercise his executive authority on climate change, immigration, gay rights and economic issues. Reporter of New York Times suggest the overhaul of immigration rules will happen in the days to come. Norm, you started to set this up in the last, youre not optimistic that, lets say, the republicans have control of the senate, youre not optimistic that there is any more compromise happening in the next two years than we had in the last two. I think we will probably see trade move forward much more readily under democrats. Its a slam dunk for republicans. Much of the base doesnt care about the issue. If the president has a signing ceremony, theres a slimmer chance, i think, of a broad infrastructure bill. There is one thing we have to remember, steve. Starting on wednesday, even before. We move right into president ial politics. Its an iowadominated by an extreme group in the caucuses and then move on through New Hampshire and into the south and were going to have three to five republican senators who will spend most of their time out there on the campaign trail, which is a problem for mcconnell getting 51 votes even. But it also means that its going to pull the party further away from compromises. If i was obama on immigration. Perry and i were talking about this before we started. Rather than move immediately towards a broad fix through executive power, which republicans basically not only drive them crazy, but give them an excuse to say we cant work with this guy. Do something small and say weve been dealing with this issue for something for years and give the republicans until the end of january to pass a comprehensive bill and move on. Put out an olive branch of sorts and then were going to have very little done, regardless. How would Something Like that go over . How would a challenge like that go over . After 2012, everybody was saying the republicans recognize now the problem they have with latino voters, this is an issue. If they dont move on anything else, theyll move on immigration. Here we are two years later, they didnt move on it and also if they win on tuesday, they win the senate on tuesday isnt the lesson the Republican Party takes out of this, we dont have to if we can still win. I dont want to confuse the two different things. Latinos arent looking around, we need Immigration Reform and we cant decide which candidate and more so in terms of are they passing or working together, is there white hawk rhetoric on the issue of amnesty or how we talk about immigrants coming across the border. It seems like every time immigration comes up its a hot issue. Then the steve kings of the world come out. Its an issue and youll see rand paul makes a movement on this area. Theres a lot that we agree on in terms of border enforcement and what is their intent, are they paying taxes never get legalized in the system and the resources can be spent, what is the best way to match employers with labor. There is compromise on that. I think the president , it would not behoove the president to move forward and do executive border efforts sxit going to ignite republicans and theyre going to spend a lot of time arguing about that and it will be a big issue. Some democrats argue thats a great thing. I dont have to take a position on it. Another hotbed issue in 2016 and republicans will lose on that issue if they dont take a step forward. I think smaller increments whether theyre looking at instate tuition and trying to find a way to address with what the president did earlier and finding small things enforcement on the border and resources and that path to legalization, not necessarily citizenship. That is a place to start. Harry, an argument in this argument according to the times that says, look, harry reid as the majority leader and president obama working closely with him. Worried about getting Democratic Senators elected in key states and thats the main driving concern for him. If harry reid is no longer the main person he has to deal with in the senate, and no longer the majority leader, it gives obama more latitude to work with mcconal and to work with republicans. Do you buy that at all . A little bit. What the core challenge is, members of the House Majority caucus and what president obama agree to. That number gets very close to zero very quickly. My sense is, what happens well on the way here, eventually, hes going to do this executive order on immigration and it will legalize between 1 and 4 Million People and then all bipartisanship will be over that afternoon. You know, steve, the republican dream is that the house and Senate Republicans get together if they both have the majority and pass all kind of bills that obama has to veto or has to swallow. Kevin mccarthy and the majority leader in the house has said we have to have a positive agenda and move forward and im talking about a republican in the senate and well be in sync. What we also know the house and senate are never in sync. When Newt Gingrich and bob dole took the reigns of the majority with bill clinton as president they were going to follow the same strategy within a couple months gingrich was complaining far more trouble with dole in the senate and called dole the Tax Collector of the welfare state and that is not going to work well for the reasons that perry suggested. At the same time, the idea that barack obama and mitch mckoppel a are going to get together and work on a whole bunch of things does not make sense. Mcconnell will try to protect his members the way harry reid did. Remember next time, lots of vulnerable republicans up. Many in blue states. Thats the nature of the cycle. Mcconnell said im going to restore the old senate with open amendments and the like. Wait until the first bill comes up and the democrats try to use the same gotcha amendments from pennsylvania and states like that and youll see the senate shut down. Shoe is on the other foot. As we say, look, funny things can happen and the map favors republicans on the service right now, but if one or two of these states surprise you on tuesday night, which is not out of the question how republicans blew it. A lot of suspense still on tuesday night. I want to thank harry bacon jr. And norm. A foregone conclusion that republicans will still control the chamber. A lot about the race for the house. Still two very important numbers to keep an eye on. Well go to the big board and tell you what they are and why, next. boys screaming totinos pizza rolls. Ready so fast,. Its scary twith available forwardd collision warningigned. And new blind spot monitor and a 2014 top safety pick plus rating. Cost of entry . A fortune. Until now. Hey sarah, new jetta . Yup. Can i check it out . Maybe at halftime . Introducing lots of new. The new volkswagen jetta. Isnt it time for german engineering . Weve talked an awful lot this year about the battle for control of the senate. A lot of suspense there. We dont know which party will end up on top after tuesday. Theres also another battle in washington that is going to play out on tuesday and that is for control of the house. You havent heard as much about it because the republicans are in very good shape to retain their majority, but there are two very important numbers to be looking at here. Be pretty consquensht for the next two years. We want to take you through what the house looks like. Majority party, remembers it takes 218 to have majority in the house. You see at the bottom, vacant seats. The majority they start with. Who is defending what an