Needlessly and recklessly provoking china with crush, sucking taiwan. Im joined by my guess and you mock in beijing. He is a Senior Research fellow at the center for china and globalization in hong kong. We have angela juliano. He is a political and financial analyst at a lake jackson. We have, Daniel Mcadam sees the executive director of the ron pol, institute for peace and prosperity. Our gentleman cross acros, in fact, that means you can jump anytime you want, and i always appreciate, daniel, let me go to you 1st. I mean, i set it all in my introduction is the by the administration of bedding, the one china policy. That was, it was, its been around since 1979. It seemed. If its maybe, you know, no one was happy with it but, and no one was, im particularly unhappy with a well, i mean it was it, it both sides havent had a sense of an agreement. Is that a done deal . I mean, this is just typical of what were seeing as a buy did ministrations Foreign Policy. It seems to be a Foreign Policy of go around the world and kick everyone in the face to see what happens. And thats exactly whats happening. There seems to be no strategic purpose for the u. S. A changing its, its tune toward china other than the fact that the democrats are facing very dire. Electro prospects here in just a couple of months. I think the move had a lot to do with politics, but it was also a very boneheaded move, which im sure well get into later. Andy, let me go to you in beijing. I mean, if i were sitting in beijing, id say what is going on here . What prompted this, a parent change in policy, and what was the visit supposed to achieve . I mean, they, you know, ive always said, you know, a trip. Okay, what do you want to do . What enact what kind of policy that is left completely empty . We have no idea other than it was just a stud and you dont do stuff like that and a very sensitive area of the world. So i mean from your perspective there in beijing, how do you see things . Well peter, i certainly hope that is daniel said that it does turn out to be a stunt war. Some farewell tour for an over the hill politician. Ah, but i think a darker and perhaps an alternative and realistic explanation of this is that this is a consistent repudiation of the corner loan of china us relations. And this puts us on a very, very dangerous pass that ive described as the equivalent of the july crisis that served as the prelude to world war one. I did that said, i mean the gun, the guns of august here, this is something that ive talked about earlier in the week here. Angela, let me go to you in hong kong. I mean, the, the, the one china policy works. So if it works, why fix it . I just dont get it here. Okay. And what, what, what, what was the catalyst for this . What so, you know, because, you know, blaine can, can Say Something biden can Say Something. Of course, nancy if shes coherent, i mean, but e, believing there words is not enough anymore action, speak more than words. Go ahead and hong kong. Well, im not surprised are those plans are done . Well, header, we are talking about d. Case, its, you can see reports from the Rand Corporation in 2016. They already took talking about how they can contain china. Now theres an acceleration that the rank operation document says clearly that theres a window of opportunity where the west can contain china and that wind of opportunities between 2015 to 2025. After that, it would be they difficult, almost impossible to contain china. So the u. S. Government is under pressure. So they using penalty the same when she, she went on our own and so on. Do not do not bind to this, you know, this is she was actually the right candidate because they can shift the blame on her. But if you look, there is a consistent track record of undermining the one china policy. And the ultimate goal is to contain china, the same as you had Rand Corporation papers they were talking about long ago, how to contain russia. You know, daniel, do say a parallel to ukraine with this because you and ive talked extensively on this program about ukraine and on december 17th for um, russia sent a note to nato into the United States, saying this is a red line. This is the terms and conditions you, you are aware of our intentions now, and they completely blew it off and theyre like, blowing this off as well as it always says nancy on her farewell to her. I mean, you know, i mean i, that, thats not good enough. And if i were the chinese, i wouldnt accept that as well. Go ahead, daniel, thats exactly what i was thinking is all the parallels to ukraine and there certainly are so many of them. And i agree with a lot of of what youre, youre speaker, im sorry, a chemicals name from hong kong said, i think thats a great analysis. However, this is the gang that cant shoot straight. I am carrying out a rand study would be like me doing Rocket Science or something. You know, its just not going to happen. That may be the goal of some of some pencil next, you know, involved with the people who are carrying this out. Cant do it. The parallels are there and theyre actually sort of even spooky. Ukraine was dependent on russia, fords, Economic Growth for trade. It had a potential back in 2014 of really developing a meaningful relationship with russia. And further developing gets economy, which has stalled since the end of the cold war. The same is true with taiwan and china as, as your other guests know better than i am sure. Taiwan depends on me and then china, its his primary export market. Taiwan imports, i think Something Like 90 percent of its energy, 98 percent of its energy. It needs china next door to be a trading partner. And the u. S. Again came in as it did with ukraine in 2014 and said, oh yeah, were going to destroy this relationship and would you get in return . Nothing you get some promises from nancy pelosi, you know, take those to the bank right now. Im a again, trying to make sense of it is very difficult. Andy, im going to be a little provocative right now. Well, at the by demonstration is walking away from the one china policy, so tiny can to, i mean, its kind of a get out of jail free card. Okay, you dont, you want to adhere to it . Why should beijing go ahead . Well, this is a very complex, dangerous situation, peter. So the cornerstone of china us relations is taiwan and the taiwan policy, the one, the one trying to policy the one china principle. So i dont think that china would walk away. The issue here is this. I completely agree that there are parallels between the ukraine situation, the taiwan situation in that the u. S. Is looking to use both as the proxy to contain those that it sees as an adversary. The difference though is that taiwan intrinsically is also the lynchpin for american hegemony. Not just in the pacific would globally in that whoever possesses taiwan. Well if, think about the 2 alternatives. If the u. S. Wins, we can see an independent taiwan American Military bases in taiwan. And that would constrain china dramatically. On the other hand, if taiwan were unified with china militarily peacefully, that changes the Global Landscape as well. So this is a very, very important, a juncture for china, us relations and the world. And in this way, its a little bit different from the ukraine. But i think it is the same in that the u. S. Is looking to use either the ukraine or taiwan as a proxy to contain those it sees as an adversary until, i mean, i mean without whats going on in ukraine and its not going well for the ukrainians. Its not going well for nato. Its not going well for the biden administration, so they want to mess with china now. I mean, do you see any logic to this other than the u. S. Is, is terrified of losing. Its a gemini and its being, its lashing out all over the globe. Go ahead in hong kong. It is a desperate move it. So its panicking. Its an empire. The dispatch panicking its. Its saying actually that things are moving on the bricks than on a line. Would you have you have the, what did i, she is a lying behind the china and russia and the panicking because theres a new one older, especially economically theres a d dollarization ahead and this will accelerate the collapse of the west. So this is the last move. What they want to do is a parallel. Well, you see in ukraine, they wanted to fight russia to the last ukranian. What could happen . What they hope to achieve in the region is to fight china to the last i, when ease and then not only taiwanese might actually lose the lives you might have actually japanese to move in. And this is not only a containment of china, this is if this happen, it could be containment of, or se, asia, in, in the whole, the whole global south as she with, with, will actually suffer from that. Well, you know, daniel, again, you know, kind of the same question i had for andy. I mean, if the u. S. Isnt going to be at here by this policy of one china, but i think all bets are off in the, in the chinese will say, look, i mean, youre not going to, youre not a reliable partner. So were gonna have to go out on our own much like what the russians had to do. I know that that goes down to a path of potential conflict. But i mean, if you cant believe your interlocutors in washington, then what are you supposed to do, daniel . Exactly, and its, i think its a yet another own goal by the United States because its essentially the us who said now, hey, the rules are off, as you said. And so the chinese said, okay, that sounds fine. Mainland china, so thats fine. Heres our military exercises, were no longer going to abide by the central line. I will no gone, no longer going to abide by the sort of agreements that we have to watch set down. I am going to start doing sanctions. I think i read that i am one of the centers on the export of santa taiwan. Well, thats a big deal because it do a lot of building. Its going to ruin the economy. Its just demonstrating. I think the u. S. Was hoping that china would overreact the idea that china was going to shoot down below his plane is pretty preposterous. Its certainly not in the nature of chinese behavior around the world. But i think thats why the u. S. Moved to carry your groups to the region. They were hoping for a big dramatic reaction of not shooting down at least forcing down the plain. That didnt happen because thats not how china rolled right. Just like cal rush, not how russia roles until which were still. And so they didnt get that and so the gloves are oftentimes its okay, we can wait this out, we can house, you can on the pain, we can wait for elections and have a pro, you re unification. Goverlan. Daniel, dont you find it really interesting. Again, there parallel with ukraine. It was that the way the west in particular, United States talks about the rushes of special military operation that they are failing and all this, they always project what they would do. Oh, we would shoot down the plane. Yes. But they will know that, that again, this kind of arrogance of protecting on the others are gentlemen gonna jump in here. Were going to go to a short break. And after that short break, well continue our discussion on time one stake with ah, ah, ah ah ah ah look forward to talking to you. Oh, that technology should work for people. A robot must obey the orders given by human beings, except where such short or is it conflict with the 1st law . Show your identification. We should be very careful about Artificial Intelligence. At that point obviously is too great truck rather than a with Artificial Intelligence real summoning with news obama protects its own existence with ah, welcome back to cross sac. Were all things are considered. Im peter lavelle. To remind you were discussing taiwan. Ah, okay, go back to andy in beijing. Lets, lets talk about chinas reaction to the policy trip that they, 1st of all, the chinese leadership made it clear that they werent, they were not happy with this. And i always kind of like how the chinese to say theyre unhappy that translates to furious in in western speak. I always kind of appreciate that that the, the tempered language from a, from china. But you know that there is a reaction going on right now. And its again, kind of extending to my question, you know, if the rule, if the rules dont apply anymore, china is going to be my, lets a sake more creative here. And it looks to me, it could be sustained and long term. I mean, the americans, i think this was a flash in the pan. Poke them in the i, you know, dont work with the russians. Nasty, nasty business that youre involved with. And then it would just kind of go away in the new cycle. No, i am looking at whats going on in the straits. This is going to be a long haul for the very reason that i keep pointing out is that the american cit have been in this policy, may be, china wont do it unilaterally. But its going to interpret that policy in a different way. Moving forward, my opinion, your thoughts, my friend in beijing. So peter little bit as i may some Historical Context here. Um, we looked at the era of engagement so where the us wanted to work with china. But this was not for altruistic reasons called the american politics is predicated where i would say americas view of itself in the world is predicated on american leadership, who gemini, and the smart decision at the time. For american elite, what we could call the blob is that by co opting traina with a jones a mean called a peaceful evolution, through soft means undermining china sovereignty. That that would be the best way to insure american hegemony when they believed that that failed mrs. I think why were seeing odd this change, i think what youre calling and i think accurately calling this abandonment of the one china policy to a much harder edged approach. I think we should not discount ah, the u. S. Ability to pursue this kind of goal. And of course, as china rises, it is perhaps the only country in the world that can challenge american gemini. So this is a very rational, even predictable response. And how is china are responding to this . So i think that its important to say that this talk of shooting down a close, hes playing or intercepting it is not entirely an american invention. So there were chinese voices, some very influential ones, like who seeing the former editor in chief of the global tribes, who said exactly that, you know, if the plane is not intercepted and doesnt turn around, it could be shot down. So ah, certainly there are voices that are more hawkish, but i think what we see happening to your point about the chinese being very measured, i would say exhibiting both discipline and strategic patience is look at what happened in hong kong in the unrest a few years ago, there were people in china saying that the p l a should go in to put down this unrest, but instead, what did china do . It inactive . Some systemic changes like the passage of the National Security was that not only extinguished this, a foreign instigated unrest, but put hong kong on a sustainable path to stability and prosperity. So i think what we can see here is the policy, the u. S. As to what the policies not changed, i think the method has changed. But that how china will react again, is long term patients resolute action, or that more than likely will results in, in taiwan being re unified one way or another. But the big wild card, and i think again this is what makes it such a dangerous time for everybody is as the u. S. Cannot accept this result. We may need a war ah, the u. S. Will attack a, china, japan and korea may be dragged in just as other countries during world war one were dragged in against their will because they were a locked into these alliances. And this could be a very, very bad outcome. You know, angela in hong kong. I, before all this happened, strategic ambiguity was considered something good. Ok, basically, it was a squaring the circle. I, you know, the u. S. Recognizes that taiwan is part of china, though they could have some independent contact with, with taiwan. And it kind, you know, everybody, you know, parlayed and it worked. Now i think it stopped working here. So strategic ambiguity is turning into a negative thing. Now, go ahead in hong kong for china was never an ambiguity. De china knew all along the long term plan. This is not the 1st time that a, the u. S. Is going against the chinese sovereignty. And he just mentioned before in hong kong, the attempt of color revolution. Hong kong was full sponsored back by the u. S. Addition to that, they were financing e t. I am the separatist wiggers in king john, and a lot of them are actually terrorist or dial. Emma has been financed by the c. I assume the 1950s. So you see, this is not the 1st time that the u. S. Is meddling into chinese sovereignty. I like what just and you just mentioned before about hong kong. You see what happened in hong kong is that china and she used the said back to journey to a novel tricky because of the riots they had in hong kong. The enacted and National Security low, which by the way was sign a petition was signed by 2300000 people. So a very large majority of people, they sign they, they backed b gene for enacting the special security law. And this became actually a 2nd handover, or actually maybe the when the handover of hong kong to china because there were lots of agents and lots of fine meddling err since 1997. So i am confident that as she were having tie one, my actually tony chin a patricky. Yeah. Me and daniel and i to point out to, ill or other panelists and our viewers is that there, there were a lot of people in taiwan protesting policies visit. Okay. You didnt get that in the mainstream media, but there were quite a few people that werent happy with it. Daniel, we faced with a facilities trap right now is, is being played out in real time. I think youre absolutely right peter. And if i can just go back to one thing, you said, i think you made a great point, which is the u. S. Depends on a new cycle that is breathtaking. Really fast. There was, there was a new gallup or that just came out showing that only one percent of americans think that russia is, is the biggest problem that we face right now. Thats a huge decline from february. So were already move past that. Were going to have a week of taiwan and then well move past that. Thats just how it works in the u. S. Lows. Hes tried to frame this trip as some sort of grant. Sure. What did you say democracy versus authoritarianism . Its this whole new con idea that if the u. S. Doesnt act across the world and make every country by force, just like its own, the totalitarianism will try and everywhere. And that just simply isnt the case. Its not been the case. All its done is