Who got them all right in 2012. From abc news, this week with George Stephanopoulos begins now. Good morning. It has already been one of the most volatile and ever, and now the first votes in the race for president are coming fast. With just three weeks until iowa we start out with an exclusive look at how iowa voters are thinking about this race. Heres jon karl. Reporter with just 22 days until voting in iowa, this weekend frontrunners donald trump and ted cruz barnstormed the hawkeye state. While trump still holds his this years first poll of iowa republicans. And now cruz is questioning whether trump has what it takes to win in iowa. Its very time intensive. Its labor intensive. You dont do it sitting back in the easy chair. Tv studio in manhattan. Caucusgoers in iowa conducted by frank luntz and google. Abc news got an exclusive first look. How many of you say trump is going to win . Raise your hands. Ooh. He wont be happy with that. Only two. How many say ted cruz will win . If trump is the nominee is there anyone in this room that wow. I do not believe trump would put a good face on the so, youd be prepared to see house . Reporter but others find a the man knows how to negotiate. People. Reporter trumps First Television ad promoting his muslim ban generated the expected buzz. Hes spoton. The things he talked about in that ad is what is affecting america right now, illegal immigration and isis. But does he do it in a way thats constructive . All no. No. Absolutely not. Its more fear based. Reporter with this group trumps questions about whether cruz who was born in canada to appeared to backfire. It exposes trump as unserious. He said his strongest lawyers said its a settled issue and cruz is eligible. Reporter one candidate in the back of the pack is getting a second look. But over the last 60 to 90 days, whose opinion of Chris Christie has improved . Raise your hands. Christie is incredibly articulate and thinks fast on his feet. He has dialed back his sarcastic outbursts. Reporter but some are skeptical of senator marco rubio. For me its the whole obama thing, and i think we suffered from that the last eight years. I like rubio. My concern with him is the fact that he doesnt have years and years and years of experience. Was a focus group of republicans in iowa, which may be the only state in the union where donald trump doesnt lead in the polls. Trump still thinks he can pull off a win there, and over the weekend he was practically state saying, quote, iowa, you havent been good at picking winners, folks. Okay, jon, thanks very much. Weve also got this new analysis from fivethirtyeight, our partners from fivethirtyeight. They projected the race so correctly back in 2012 and have now got the first projections reporter thats right, george. Primary contests are notoriously hard to forecast but fivethirtyeight is breaking down the chances each candidate has to win in iowa and New Hampshire. Theyre doing it by combining all the latest polling numbers with data on how the various polls and endorsements have predicted or failed to predict results in the past. While senator ted cruz and donald trump are neck and neck in the poll, as of today chance of winning the iowa caucus. Trump comes in second with a 21 chance of winning, and heres a surprise, based on in the poll, fivethirtyeight gives marco rubio a 20 chance of winning in iowa. Jeb bush and ben carson trail far behind to round out now, over in New Hampshire, trump leads by a wide margin in every poll and fivethirtyeight puts him as the clear frontrunner with a 34 chance of winning and fivethirtyeight gives rubio a 26 chance of winning. They are trailed by cruz, john kasich and jeb bush, and despite some momentum fivethirtyeight is giving Chris Christie only a 7 chance of winning in New Hampshire. Okay, jon karl, thanks very much. Lets take this now to senator marco rubio, who joins us from miami this morning. You saw those projections right there, senator rubio. Thank you for joining us. What do you make of them, and what do you need to do to overtake donald trump and ted cruz . Well, were going to keep doing what were doing now. Look, theres a lot of voters in these early state, particularly in iowa, but also in New Hampshire that are going to make their digs very late. Theyre still shopping. You can see it and sense it in your conversations. Weve gotten some people that are starting to make Firm Commitments but others are still looking. Look, three weeks for an iowa caucusgo the Important Role they play and we feel very, very confident about where we stand and where well be when its over. You heard those iowa voters. Some concerns about your experience. One voter calling you obama 2 and that attack has been picked up by Chris Christie, governor christie who is also hitting on your experience. Hes made a point about you in a pretty graphic way this week. Lets listen. This guy has an spoonfed every victory he has ever had in his life. Is that the kind of person we want to put on the stage against Hillary Clinton . I dont think so. Shell pat him on the head and then cut his heart out. Cut your heart out. What do you make of that . Well, look, chris doesnt want to have a debate about his record. Its not personal but chris record for a republican is not what we need. Hes a supporter of common core. Hes personally given a donation to planned parenthood. Hes a supporter of gun rights gun control. Thats why he got into office to begin with was run for gun control. Someone who agrees with Hillary Clinton and president obama on many issues in this country. He doesnt want to have a debate on those issues. What do you make about that what do you make about that experience coming from the voters, worried you dont have the experience, worried you could be another obama . Well, first of all, obama is not a failure because he was a senator. He has seven years of president ial experience and still making enormous mistakes. Clearly it wasnt experience but it was his ideology was flawed. Its true there are people running for president who lived longer than i but no one shown better judgment or has better understanding of our National Security issues than i do. A president is to be the commander in chief. And none of these other people running have more experience on that issue or have shown better judgment, especially over the last five years than i have so continue to make that argument, the people who are troubled by that will move on and come to support us. Youre getting hit pretty immigration taking on your support of that bipartisan gang of eight compromise in the senate. This week a new issue cropped up in the daily beast. It says, marco rubio in 2004, cheap college for undocumented immigrants. Theyre talking about the florida statehouse you cosponsored legislation to provide instate tuition for undocumented immigrants. What was your thinking then and do you stand behind that position now . Well, first of all a lot of these attacks are exaggerated. I dont support amnesty. I think there has to be real consequences for violating our laws. I continue to support and have supported the largest border surge in american history, 20,000 new border agents, 700 miles of fencing and walls and mandatory everify system, entry exit tracking system to prevent visa overstays. On the bill you talked about it was a narrowly drafted bill and you had to have a certain gpa. You had to live in the u. S. A long time and it was very narrowly tailored to high hief highperforming students who found themselves in a situation where they were brought here by their parents when they were 5, didnt speak another language except english and couldnt attend college because they were being charged like they were out of state. Still had to pay for college but High School Graduates of florida. Of a narrowly tailored bill like that, absolutely. In fact, the Florida Legislature came back years after i left and passed it with vast majority of republicans voting for it and a republican governor signed it. Thats different, but we didnt legalize anybody. Thats the issue here and the truth is, when it comes to ted, he has changed his position on immigration all over the place. I mean he used to be against birth right citizen he used to be for birthright citizenship and now he says hes against it. Illegally. Now he is against it. He used to be for 200 increases in green cards, doubling them. Now he says he wants none, and he says he used to be for a and now he says he wants zero. So, this is not consistency, this is calculation as hes on these issues as we get closer youve engaged in the National Security debate with act that he supported is going to make it harder to protect the heres what you said this week. If isis had lobbyists in washington, they would have spent millions to support the antiintelligence law that was just passed with the help of some republicans now running for president. That language about lobbyists for isis is pretty tough but the bill was also supported by iowa senator charles grassley, New Hampshire senator kelly ayotte and almost two dozen members of congress who support you. Are they all in lead with lobbyists for isis . No, but the names you mentioned supported it not because they thought it was a good idea but because of nothing passed that would have expired and second theyre not running for president. Were running for commander in chief here and, no, we should not have a commander in chief that wants to weaken our quarrel with ted on these issues of National Security are not limited just to the intelligence but if it was just that, you can have an honest disagreement. We already are cutting military spending you stand behind that language, lobbyists for isis . Absolutely there is no doubt that groups like isis will benefit from us having a diminished intelligence capacity. We are now at a moment in this country where we dont just need to keep the authorities we already have, we need to add to these programs. Look at what happened in philadelphia on friday. That was a terrorist attack. The white house refuses to call the attacker said i did it for isis and ive been inspired by isis and we have a white house that refuses to acknowledge it as a terror attack. And this is the kind of threat we face in this country. We need additional tools for i want to make about this, i never believed Edward Snowden way ted cruz once said he did a Public Service for america. Edward snowden is a traitor. He took our intelligence chinese and gave it to the russians. We cannot afford to have a commander in chief who thinks doing a good Public Service. President obama made a bid that was brandnew for background checks on gun sales and one of your recent ads our guns. Argument this week. Take a look. The conversation has to be based on facts and truth and what were actually proposing. Fiction in which obamas trying to take away your guns. Fact checkers have called you out on that, as well. Where has the president called for proposals for taking away guns . He has not done that. His proposal for everyone is infringe on the Second Amendment. This was a terrorist attack in San Bernardino and he jumps and says we need gun control. But take away our guns . Well, if he could, he would. Obviously he knows hes constrained by the Second Amendment so what he tries to do is chip away at it every moment. Let me tell you what hes trying to do, hes trying to keep guns out of the hands of lawabiding citizens by continuing to put new restricts on gun rights. Let me give you an example. He says barack obama wants this debate to be about facts and truth. Good. Lets have it about facts and truth. Heres the fact and heres the truth. None of the attacks that he is talking about, none of these horrible, horrifying tragedies that have occurred that he cites as a rationale for new measures hes taking, not a single one would have been prevented by anything hes proposing and the reason why is because killers and criminals do not care what the gun laws are. They are not going to go to someone that conducts background checks. They will continue to get them from the black market, stolen guns, et cetera, so this is absurd. The only people that will follow the law are lawabiding people. This is nothing but an effort from the left to continue to chip away at the Second Amendment ryes. Finally, senator, we had this news that sean penn, the actor, interviewed the months back and had several followup interviews. The mexican authorities are now investigating. Do you have any problem with what he did . Yeah, im not look, i think sean penn is not someone i spend a lot of time thinking about. I didnt even know he was still around. I think he made movies a long time ago or something. He and el chapo, we used the interview he had in order to find him or the mexicans did. I hope they extradite el chapo to the United States. If one of these american actors who have benefitted from the greatness of this country and made money from our Free Enterprise want to go fawn over a criminal and a drug trafficker in their interview, they have a constitutional right to do it. I find it grotesque. Senator rubio, thanks for joining us this morning. Thank you. The democrats up next. Brandnew polls out this morning show clinton and sanders neck and neck in both iowa and New Hampshire, that as the Clinton Campaign launching new attacks and Bernie Sanders joins us live in two minutes. Announcer this week with George Stephanopoulos is connected by blackberry priv. Its time to set this bird free. Hot blooded, check it and see. His this week with George Stephanopoulos with connected by blackberry priv. Is this week with George Stephanopoulos with connected by blackberry priv. S this week with George Stephanopoulos with connected by blackberry priv. This week with George Stephanopoulos with connected by blackberry priv. This week with George Stephanopoulos with connected by blackberry priv. This week with George Stephanopoulos with connected by blackberry priv. Whether its 30years old or 30days old, carmax will appraise it in as little as 30 minutes. And then your only concern will be how to spend the cash. Rad. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like ordering wine equals pretending to know wine. Pinot noir, which means peanut of the night. I took mucinex dm for my phlegmy cough. Yeah. But what about mike . Cough it works on his cough too. Mucinex dm relieves wet and dry coughs for 12 hours. Think about it. I would bomb the [ bleep ] out of them. One of these republicans carpet bomb them into oblivion. Could actually be president. Sit down and shut up. Theyre backward, even dangerous, so ask yourself who stop them . Hillary clinton. Clinton on the issue of electability as we have brandnew polls this morning in both iowa and New Hampshire. Here they are from nbc. The iowa caucuss show that Hillary Clinton holding just a threepoint lead over Bernie Sanders. 48 45 and in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders ahead, 50 46 over Hillary Clinton. Senator sanders joins us from iowa this morning. Thank you for joining us this morning. Senator, neck and neck race. You know, george, consider how far we have come Puerto Vallarta are are are are over the last eight months, it really is incredible. We started at National Polls at about 3 . I think most of the recent polls have us ahead in New Hampshire. I think were gaining steam here in iowa. I think we have an excellent chance to win here and i think our message, the message that something profoundly wrong with the middle class continues to decline and almost all new wealth and income is going to the top 1 , that is a message that is resonating, people are tired of establishment politics, establishment economics, they want change and thats what were fighting for. It does appear that secretary clinton could hit a nerve though with this issue of electability. We conducted this focus group over the weekend. Frank luntz conducted it and some of the voters had concerns about you and the electability issue. Lets listen. My biggest thing is bernie seems old. And im sorry. Bernie is old, and i see how that office ages people. Bernie wont make it. Can he go the distance in my mind, no. One of the biggest flaws of Bernie Sanders was admit or people think its communism. So those issues of socialism, communism and age getting in the way of your electability. How do you reassure those voters . Well, for a start i would urge those voters, voters all over this country, take a look at recent polls in which Bernie Sanders is matched with republican candidates, trump on down, Hillary Clinton is matched with republican candidates, and you know what, in many of those polls including the major recent one, quinnipiac poll, we beat trump nationally by 13 points, secretary clinton beat him by seven points. Look at a recent New Hampshire poll. Just in New Hampshire, we did much, much better again