Where to find value in the commercial property sector : vima

© Alamy
The share prices of commercial-property companies collapsed in March 2020 along with the broader market as investors pondered the impact of lockdown on rents and valuations. Soon, though, investors started to see winners – notably logistics warehouses, supermarkets and medical property – as well as losers, primarily shopping centres. In time, investors realised that some properties, such as student accommodation, were only temporarily affected; that gloom about other sites, such as retail parks, was misplaced; and that the setback to offices had been discounted in share prices to an excessive degree. 
The overall return from commercial property in 2020, says the Investment Property Forum (IPF), was only negative by 1%, comprising a -5% capital return, but 4% of income. The capital value of shopping centres fell by 23%, but industrial properties appreciated by 4% and offices declined by just 2%, despite being largely empty for most of the year. The IPF consensus forecast expects a modest pick-up in 2021, with the industrial subsector continuing to do well, but retail poorly, before a broader pick-up in 2022. In that case, there is still plenty of good value in the sector. 

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