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We're very, very early here. i think there's more of a case on the gop side than the democratic side. this race looks a lot like 2000. it was bradley versus al gore. it is really boring if you have a candidate seen as inevitable. but clinton has been endorsed by already half the democratic congress. she's raised lots of money. she has a 30-point lead in national polls. bernie sanders could win new hampshire, iowa, but can he sustain with it a larger population. >> there is a lot about this that is uncharted. more uncharted on the gop side but i think it is broadly uncharted. it is a lot of the...

Where it is fun and free flowing. we're very, very early here. i think there's more of a case on the gop side than the democratic side. this race looks a lot like 2000. it was bradley versus al gore. it is really boring if you have a candidate seen as inevitable. but clinton has been endorsed by already half the democratic congress. she's raised lots of money. she has a 30-point lead in national polls. bernie sanders could win new hampshire, iowa, but can he sustain with it a larger population. >> there is a lot about this that is uncharted. more uncharted on the gop side but i think it is bro...

16 huckabee 14 trump 13 romney and trump continued to decline from there. the second thing is remember the fundamentals matter a lot and mr. trump's are not good. 538.com looked at 106 candidates who ran since 1980 who had favorables and unfavorables measured at this point and out of 106 his favorables are the worse. he is lower than al sharpton and jesse jackson. >> 30% are undecided. and the people polled are republicans or independents who

Outlying poll, occasionally. it makes for a good story. is there a new swing state in play? the reliable poll that says the same as the other ten doesn't get many headlines. it's where the real meat of the story is. >> how should we be responsible aside of 538.com. what should we do? when there's 15 polls that come out in one day, what do we do? >> this is self-serving. we update our website once a day with the polls. it's the right temperature level for how often you can read the polls. people on twitter critique each poll. you have a run of romney polls that are good for him. people perceive...

Was updated 68 times in the days before she was announced to be the vice presidential nominee. joe biden page was updated 40 times the day before obama announced him as his running mate. so who is in the wiki lead today? chris christie page was updated twice. tim pawlenty's, four times. paul ryan, seven times. marco rubio, 22 times. and rob portman's time was updated at least a whopping 103 times. joining me now, one of the most respected number crunchers in the country, nate silver, author of "the new york times" political blog, 538.com. a pleasure to have you on set, nate. >> thank you. >> h...