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By election right now. i don t think there s any need for a by-election right now. i don t think there s any need for a by-election right now. when you look at, and we talked by-election right now. when you look at, and we talked about by-election right now. when you look at, and we talked about the by-election right now. when you look at, and we talked about the letters i at, and we talked about the letters going on to the committee, the only person who knows whether there are 54 person who knows whether there are 5a letters is sir graham brady, who is like a steel trap. do you suspect that the reason after all the scandal there s been, the reason we aren t already at 5a is because conservatives look at the other runners, the people might replace borisjohnson and aren t entirely convinced? boris johnson and aren t entirely convinced? boris johnson and aren t entirely convinced? ., ., , convinced? no. the most obvious eole convinced? no. the most obvious eo - le to convinced? ....
Without rhetorical shield, one conservative mp said to me privately at lunchtime today, well, that is all very well, but who knows what she might say, and that could cause no end of problems. then there s the question of what else might emerge. one final thought, it is pretty difficult to remove the prime minister who does not want to budge. we know that because there hasn t been the 5a letters as of yet to lead to a vote of confidence, and evenif lead to a vote of confidence, and even if there was, he would need a substantially larger number than that of conservative mps who haven t been willing to put in a letter to actually vote boris johnson out. been willing to put in a letter to actually vote borisjohnson out. it is difficult for the prime minister, but he is insistent on sticking around and removing him will not be straightforward for those who want to. ., ~ straightforward for those who want to. . ~ , ., straightforward for those who want to. ., ,, , ., , . straightforward for ....
Of how long they believe mrjohnson should have at number io quite frankly. so this is a really important moment and it will be the point where a lot of conservative mps will have to make their mind up. and that is the moment of danger for the prime minister, or potential danger, if some tory mps don t like it and they put in letters to the 1922 committee chairman, in terms of a no confidence vote in borisjohnson. they need 5a letters and we don t know how many have already been sent in. no, we don t. they need 5a letters because that is 15% of the parliamentary conservative party, so that is why it hits that magic number. it is notoriously difficult to know how many letters are in, how many are not. we know of six mps who have said they have put one in so far. talking to mps last week, there was a feeling that if it goes, it goes all at once, if you see what i mean, that there might suddenly be a real flurry of letters after the sue gray report. but then again, you never know with thes ....
Report. it will depend how damning the details of that will be whether that will be the final straw, but a lot of mps are holding back, putting in the letters of no confidence until they have seen that report. one of the reasons being thatjust because you ve got 5a letters and calling for a confidence vote, it doesn t mean that you have the numbers to carry it. so those who want to see the end of borisjohnson are really counting on what number is they ve got. unless the rules have changed, at the challenge fails, what would happen is that borisjohnson cannot be, can go through another vote of no confidence for another year unless the rules are changed. there is some speculation they might even do that and reduce it to six months. what chances do you get boris johnson of still being prime minister during local elections in may, for example? i minister during local elections in may, for example? minister during local elections in may, for example? i don t think that will happen- may, ....
Political commentator and former tory adviser at conservative central office. thank you both forjoining me. we are all still in the waiting room with the sue gray reports were to think stanton i? think stanton i? things have not shifted that think stanton i? things have not shifted that much think stanton i? things have not shifted that much significantly . shifted that much significantly today in the sense we still don t have the sue gray report. it meant police investigation into what has been going on at number ten has obviously been launched, so i think that s really what westminster is waiting for and that is going to be key to boris johnson s survival. waiting for and that is going to be key to borisjohnson s survival. he serves at the pleasure of the conservative parliamentary party and for the moment there are not enough letters, it s 5a letters required to go to the 1922 committee to tour a vote of no confidence and at the moment those letters are not there depending on w ....