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Nate virtually 538.com says hillary has an 84.7% chance of winning. and yet are they to be believed? trump accuses that the polls are crooked. he says they are rigged. the usc-"l.a. times" daybreak tracking poll consistently shows trump doing better than the others. as of this morning, 44.2% for trump, hillary at 44.1. what explains the difference and how well do pre-election polls match the final results? i think you're about to be schocked. david lauder is "l.a. times" washington bureau chief. the methods of the poll don't meet the cnn standards and yet in 2012 that poll said obama would win...

>> he doesn't need much advice. he's a very good debater. so i do tell him to have fun and relax and just be himself because the truth is if he's the barack obama the country has come to know and trust, he's going to do a great job. >> the new nation nbc news poll shows that among likely voters president obama polls at 49% and mitt romney at 46%. tonight, night silver of the new york times blog, forecasts that on november 6 obama will win 318 votes and mitt romney will win 219. and president obama's chance of winning the election is now at 84.7%. joining me now john hiel man and krystal ball. ...

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