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Victory in 2016, trump against sanders it's 5, trump against biden it's 6. he's winning them, but 5, 6, 11, 13, 13. nothing like you saw in the exit poll in 2016. doesn't mean that's how this race is going to end up, but as sort of a starting point this is not what 2016 looked like. >> aaron, you called this quinnipiac poll the worst for the president yet go on to write there's plenty of time and polls aren't predictive, but for now it appears he's starting from behind. incumbent presidents don't generally start from that position. what's going on here? >> yeah, incumbent presidents with this ...

Popular, some of which will be less so. that's going to shape the direction of the 2020 election. >> so that's an important point, that the president or donald trump can be underwater in terms of popularity or more people can think he's punpopular than popular but it's relative to who he's running against. >> yeah, and we saw that very clearly in 2016 when you saw two candidates who were unpopular and voters were having to make the choice of the lesser of two evils. i think there's a constitutional requirement that somebody points this out but the polls aren't predictive yet because we don't k...

President's job approval is not strong and that that's going to translate to a difficult election for him. the problem is when we actually get to the election, it's not going to be just any democrat who's running against him, it's going to be a democrat with real policies, some of which will be popular, some of which will be less so. that's going to shape the direction of the 2020 election. >> so that's an important point, that the president or donald trump can be underwater in terms of popularity or more people can think he's unpopular than popular but it's relative to who he's running agains...

The question is, i think still for vice president biden and his campaign, the question is, is the country and is the party really seeking that great level of change? and their argument is that we're going to keep doing well against president trump in polls like this if we're able to carve out more of a moderate message that appeals to a range of democrats as well as independents. >> we heard part of that argument coming from biden in that interview with chris cuomo saying he's not so certain that most democrats want that kind of change. >> yes. i'm sorry. i thought you were going to play a cli...

Whether it's far left economic views, far left views on social issues, there are just a lot more candidates talking about the kinds of ideas that bernie is talking about. now, bernie has clearly gotten off to a strong second place start. he does have that durable base of support. but he didn't get into this race to come in second again. he got into this race because he thought he could come in first, and to do that, he is going to have to broaden that support. he is going to have to show that that base that he has isn't 10% or 15%, especially in a field that even with as many candidates as the...