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(1) . Therefore, only q errors will affect the existing level, but higher order errors do not affect . This indicates that it is a short memory model. Auto-Regression (AR) p, an AR ( (2) The model is described in terms of past values and therefore we would like to estimate the coefficients , and use the model for forecasting. All previous values will have cumulative effects on the existing level, which is a long-run memory model. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Process ARIMA modeling methods were used in this study based on a common method available for modeling and for...

Mortality and fluctuations in macroeconomic activity in New Zealand Open Access PDF Download A substantial amount of international research has documented a statistical relationship between mortality and economic activity at the aggregate level. In many countries, mortality appears to be procyclical, meaning that it tends to increase (relative to long-run trends) during economic expansions.1–8 Procyclical mortality appears concentrated among the elderly and in urban areas.2,3 However, not all causes of mortality are procyclical. Suicides, homicides and purposeful injuries are frequently fo...