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Better in congressional ballot tests that we were hearing several weeks back, it seems so much of that has changed, and is there that sinking realization on the hill among republicans that this actually is going to, despite what donald trump says about a red wave, that things are getting worse by the day for republicans? >> yes. if you talk to republicans in the leadership on capitol hill they recognize that this is the cleanest test of their political fortunes at the moment. the interesting thing, this hasn't gotten a ton of ink, but in private polling the president's actually right side up i...

Republicans are in store for something like a shellacking. what tells you of all of the leading indicators, that it looks like the dems will grab the house. >> two ways of looking at it. the macro and the micro. and the macro is looking at ballot test. and the other is the micro approach. and right now, democrats need a 23 net seats to gain a majority. there are 34 republican seats that are toss up or worse. this is, i mean, republican majority has been in danger for well over a year. and it's pretty serious.

Again, democrats to win control of the house. force to defend 42 open seats. that is the national poll among women and independents. republicans are in store for something like a shaellacking. what tells you of all of the leading indicators, that it looks like the dems will grab the house. >> two ways of looking at it. the macroand the micro. and the macro is looking at ballot test. and the other is the micro approach. and right now, democrats need a 23 net seats to gain a majority.

People who will get off the couch and go vote. >> remember this. in the generic ballot test, democrats are up eight points and that's been pretty consistent. there are violent couple swings up and down but basically 7, 8, 9 points. the democrats, because of how the house is constructed, the democrats will need every bit of that to get to a majority. they will need all of it. when they only lead by three points, two or three points, it's not going to get them ther there. they need, because of the way, the middle of the country is full of republicans, because of that, democrats to over perform. ...

54%, republicans 47%, similar from there on out but they have the edge, people will get off their couch quote. >> remember this. in the generic ballot test democrats are up a points that has been consistent this year, there have been a couple swings up and down, 7, 9 points in that range, democrats because of how the house is constructed democrats would need every bit of that to get to a majority. because when they only lead by 3 points that is not going to get them there so they need because of the -- the country is full of republicans, because of that democrats need to over perform, they nee...