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Chance of a soft landing built in. what would that take? >> soft landing could happen. it is not our base case, but it could happen because inflation is coming down and so what is going to happen is wages and salaries are going up, inflation is starting to come down, that helps that purchasing power that i talked about before. and if the fed pauses in its rate hiking cycle, what you could potentially see, a narrow window, but we get through that window without a recession and as you get more and more real income, as the job market remains relatively strong, you could have a so-called soft land...

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Weight on that. that reflects in part some gasoline prices coming down over the last few months. and that is not happening anymore. but in general when you look at it, we're seeing inflationary pressures cool around the economy right now. and so, yes, the fed is ratcheting it back. no need to go 75 basis points or even 50 anymore. they are talking about the fine tuning stages and so yes, we expect them to go 25 basis points today. >> all that tightening, this would be the eighth interest rate hike but the u.s. economy still finished strong end of last year, 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter. o...

Frankly. >> what keeps you up at night in terms of the outlook for the u.s. economy? >> well, i'm a solid sleeper. i sleep about 8 1/2 hours at night. our base case is really pretty strong results. actually getting back to 2019 levels in terms of profitability for us even if there is a recession. there's a lot of risk in the world. i would put ukraine, some kind of escalation high on the list. fuel prices high on that list. the debt showdown, my guess is there will be some histrionics and drama around it, but ultimately it's not going to side track the u.s. economy for the long term even thoug...

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