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Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

March 31, 2021 Pitching can be the spot of our lineups where we experience the lowest degree of variance in a sport full of volatility. We’re not going to explore how to minimize variance, but how to make the best plays tailored for our lineups to fit the contests we’re playing using projections and leverage. A lot of things factor into a pitcher scoring fantasy points via strikeouts, innings, and run prevention. A pitcher’s skill is pretty important, but what’s the best way to gauge a pitcher’s skill? The answer is mostly through the predictive analytics of their past performance, ...

Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

April 1, 2021 The teams are ready and the rosters are (mostly) set, making it the appointed time for the electrons that make up the projections to dance in their required formations. This is the last run of the projections before the season starts, making these the Official ZiPS Projected Standings© for the 2021 season. Thursday starts the six-month marathon that determines which prognostications will achieve fame and which will attain infamy. So, how do the ZiPS projected standings work? ZiPS makes baseline playing time projections heavily informed by our Depth Charts; after all, ain’t no...

April 1, 2021 When the Mets traded for Francisco Lindor earlier this offseason, an extension felt likely, even certain. As the season rolled inexorably closer with no deal in place, however, that likelihood (certitude?) ebbed: The Mets seemed tied to their offer, Lindor had a March 31 negotiation deadline, and no one was budging. Last night, the impasse ended: The two parties agreed to a 10-year, $341 million extension that will make him the highest-paid shortstop in history, as Jon Heyman first reported. Lindor’s brilliance hardly needs recapitulation, but for giddy Mets fans drinking in e...