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Forex Weekly Outlook April 19-23 - Central banks, inflation in spotlight

The US economy continues to recover, as consumer spending showed strong gains in March. The Eurozone continues to grapple with high Covid rates and many parts of Western Europe are under lockdown. In the UK, a successful vacccine rollout has led to further easing in health restrictions.
In the upcoming week, the ECB and Bank of Canada will hold policy meetings. The UK releases key inflation and employment data.
Eurozone CPI posted a gain of 1.3% in March, up from 0.9% a month earlier. Inflation remains below the ECB target of 2% but is gaining strength.
In the UK, March PMIs signaled strong economic growth. Services PMI improved to 56.3, up from 49.5. This was well into expansionary territory, above the 50-level. Construction PMI jumped to 61.7, up from 53.3. This showed the strongest rate of construction output growth since September 2014. ....

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USD/CAD Forecast April 19-23 - Will Bank of Canada taper QE?

USD/CAD showed little change last week.
There are four Canadian economic releases in the upcoming week, including the Bank of Canada rate decision.
Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The quarterly BoC Business Outlook Survey indicated that business sentiment continues to improve. Firms reported less uncertainty related to the COVID‑19 pandemic and strengthening demand from weak levels. Still, the recovery remains uneven. Manufacturing Sales took a downturn in February, posting a decline of 1.6%. The ADP Employment report surged, with 634.8 thousand new jobs in March.
In the US, CPI rose in March, but the reaction of the US dollar was muted. Headline CPI climbed from 0.4% to 0.6% and Core CPI improved to 0.3%, up from 0.1%. Retail sales soared in March – headline retail sales came in at 9.8% and the core reading rose 8.4%, well above the forecast. ....

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USD/CAD Forecast April 19-23 – Will Bank of Canada taper QE?

USD/CAD Forecast April 19-23 – Will Bank of Canada taper QE?
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USD/CAD Rate to Eye March Low on Break of April Opening Range

USD/CAD Rate to Eye March Low on Break of April Opening Range
2021-04-12 14:30:00
David Song,
Strategist
Canadian Dollar Talking Points
USD/CAD attempts to retrace the decline following the update to Canada’s Employment report in an effort to retain the opening range for April, but lack of momentum to push back above the 50-Day SMA (1.2611) may lead to a further decline in the exchange rate like the price action seen earlier this year.
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USD/CAD Rate to Eye March Low on Break of April Opening Range
USD/CAD appears to be on track to test the monthly low (1.2502) as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the rebound from the March low (1.2365) if it fails to retain the opening range for April. ....

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