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>> then he has to win colorado, wisconsin and either iowa or new hampshire. >> he will win iowa, wisconsin and colorado. no question. the minimum elect tore really votes he has and he has a shot at ohio and pennsylvania. >> i was there all weekend. i can make your argument and that is the scott walker recall. >> yeah! >> no, no, but that's a big thing. but you look at the policy, it's very tight. it's very -- >> screw the policy. give me a break. the. >> you have to look at them. >> the polls basically are these states, it's a tie. it's a tie. whenever you have a tie, a, the republican win. wh...

Racist. if you are against obama, you are a racist. if you are against the testimony plus bill. >> and you think it has oppressed people in terms of telling people who they are really voting for? >> that's what the bradley effect is naming over. tom bradley in california, it happened to denkins and doug wilder himself. the polls overpredict a victory for a black candidate. we haven't seen it go the other way. we haven't seen an in couple pant helped by a tie. we haven't seen a republican helped by a tie. i was going through with you about four weeks ago, pollsters always have excuses aft fact....

Of the 538 blog. as of this morning, silver methodology gives president obama an 85.1% chance of receiving the majority of the electoral college votes on tuesday. and winning another term in office. mitt romney has just a 14.9% chance according to silver. those numbers are generating a lot of controversy and part of the issue is trying to understand what silver means when he talks about probability. so cornell x you said we got it talk to the people. i'm thinking yeah, but he seems to do well predicting based on the way that he manages the poll numbers. >> the thing about polling. if you look ...

All that, but don't discount the enthusiasm issue that ends up overcounting some exit poll votes. and i don't buy the bradley effect on an incumbent anymore. i just don't. not an incumbent. >> we will see. i will tell you, mika, the romney campaign has expressed concern about what david said, and that is the mormon effect. what i tell them is i think they're dead right, and that means that they're probably going to only win oklahoma by 39% instead of 41%. that's something they do need to work on. utah. >> reporter: they're going to only carry every county in oklahoma is what you're saying. >> ...

States. but in ohio, as chuck says, the obama team is looking at even if they're losing some of that support, until those numbers start to dramatically change in the state and tighten up, that's where they feel everything gets won. >> so let's talk about an issue that we haven't heard a whole lot talked about this year. it was talked about four years ago. and i want to ask you guys if we're going to see any residual effects of what happened four years ago. i remember walking around every primary night, and chuck, i would ask you, what do the exit polls look like against hillary clinton and all...