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After Covid passes there will be the inevitable economic recovery. Will it be a long slow recovery or a rapid bounce back to the economy we had in February 2020? I believe there will be a rapid recovery, mainly due to the fact that we've sunk to such a low base. By April 2020, UK GDP had fallen 25% in two months. They did recover as the lockdowns ended but the Bank of England (BOE) have forecast a UK GDP growth of -11% in 2020 and a +7% in 2021. A decline like the Covid dip hasn't been seen since World War Two. The good news, however, is the pace of recovery and most economists predict it will be rapid.
The numbers this time have not really dropped with the lockdown period. My natural worry then would be with the Christmas period coming and the fact that numbers haven’t really gone down, the potential is there for a real crisis in January and February. I get the economic arguments and the other side of this. There is already massive poverty evident and mental health problems are increased. There is a vaccine. It will be delivered as best we can. I think it’s an awful pity then that for two or three more months until we get the vulnerable groups vaccinated that we can’t just maintain our extreme caution.