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Gap in stock prices, corporate earnings at highest level since 1990

As the Indian equity markets scale a new high, the gap between stock prices and the underlying corporate earnings has widened to its highest level in more than 30 years.

At its current level, the benchmark BSE Sensex has run up nearly 31 per cent more than the growth in its underlying earnings per share (EPS) in the past 20 years.

Most of the divergence between share prices and underlying earnings growth occurred in the past 10 years.

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Crude realisation: Oil's slick grip threatens corporate margins, profits

Corporate margins and profits in India remain vulnerable to changes in crude oil prices in the international market.

Historical quarterly data from listed companies (excluding banks, finance and insurance, oil and gas, and power sectors) indicate an adverse correlation between corporate margins and crude oil prices.

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BSE MidCap, SmallCap crash 2% on profit-booking as Fed, RBI hold rates

Recent market decline follows hawkish policies from the Reserve Bank of India and the US Fed, both refraining from rate cuts. Top economists and central bankers anticipate prolonged higher interest rates.

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Banks' valuation discount to Sensex hits 10-year high

Banks, the biggest component of the Indian equity market, are now trading at a big discount to the benchmark indicesThe BSE Bankex index, which tracks the share price of the 10 top listed banks, is trading at a trailing price to earnings (P/E) multiple of 15.3X, nearly a 40 per cent discount to the BSE Sensex current P/E of 24.37X.

This is the biggest valuation gap between the two indices in at least 10 years.

Similarly, the BSE Bankex price to book ratio (P/B) of 2.22X is 40 per cent lower than the current Sensex P/B ratio of 3.61X.

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BFSI weighting in Nifty50 hits 7-year low as HDFC slips

After a sharp fall in the share prices of HDFC Bank and other private sector lenders in the past three days, the BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) sector weighting in the Nifty50 has slipped to a seven-year low of 32.03 per cent, down from nearly 36.6 per cent at the end of March 2023 and 34.5 per cent at the end of December 2023.

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Earnings-equity valuation gap of Indian IT companies widens

The Nifty IT index rose by 5.14 per cent on Friday (January 12), marking its best performance in a day since July 2020, followed by another 1.9 per cent rally on Monday.

With this, the index, which tracks the share prices of India's 10 biggest information technology (IT) services companies, has increased 7.1 per cent in the past two sessions.

However, the substantial rally in the index occurred at a time when India's four largest IT companies reported their worst quarterly performance in over five years.

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Banks, finance companies lose weight despite record earnings

Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year.

Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019.

This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.

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Decoded: RBI attacks possible evergreening of NPAs by lenders via the AIF route

RBI has noticed investments by regulated institutions (REs including Banks, NBFCs, and FIs) in AIFs, who have also funded companies that have taken loans from RE.

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Equity market valuation rises as US bond yields ease

The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield.

While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent.

Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.

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Dhananjay Sinha news: Read stories by Dhananjay Sinha on The Economic Times

Dhananjay Sinha news: Read stories by Dhananjay Sinha on The Economic Times. Read latest stories, expert columns, recommendations, best strategies, breaking story analysis by Dhananjay Sinha.

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