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Post-Moore's Law: How Will We Know How Much Faster Computers Can Go?


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The Mistral supercomputer, installed in 2016 at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ, or Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum) in Hamburg, Germany, photographed in 2017
After Moore’s Law: How Will We Know How Much Faster Computers Can Go?
From scientists to vendors and enterprises, the computing industry needs a way to predict what’s coming and when.
Moore’s Law doesn’t appear to be working anymore.
In 1965, Intel founder Gordon Moore observed that there was a virtuous cycle to expanding the breadth of transistors “crammed,” as Moore himself put it, onto an integrated circuit design. By managing the rate of decline in unit costs, he wrote, a manufacturer could effectively double that transistor count every 18 months to two years. Consumers’ expectations for performance increases would then meet that demand perfectly, ensuring the revenue necessary to justify the development and production expe ....

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