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Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20190712:10:22:00

Remained pretty resilient how he responds in the second debate is going to be critical because one debate performance that had him look like he was a little bit off his game a little bit off his ground is okay. two i think would be more problematic. yeah. well, i completely agree with that. joe biden has to stand and deliver in the next debate. of all the numbers i have seen, everything is fluid. you can compare polls this time in the 2007 cycle, the 2011. this time in 2011. this time obviously in 2015. yeah. and there are a lot of numbers that move but i ll tell you there are two numbers right now that are the most likely to remain constant and will have a dramatic impact on this race unless the two candidates figure out how they re going to get more black democratic voters on their side and those are mayor pete s numbers among black voters and elizabeth warren s numbers among black voters. we have talked about what a ....

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Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20190712:11:08:00

You re always cool headed. you take the long view. there was a lot of hand wringing among democrats after the debate in miami a couple of weeks ago that maybe joe biden had lost a step, that kamala harris got the better of him. she did move up in the polls. he did tick down a little bit in the immediate aftermath but if you look at this you take the conversation around his comments about segregation, the comments about busing and the numbers especially among african-americans he still leads by almost 30%. so what s your long view of where joe biden is right now? boy, he s exactly where he wants to be. people forget that you need 20% of the vote in every congressional district in the early states to get any delegates and biden is currently looking like he s going to get a bunch of early delegates and start out in the lead here. to the rev s point, there s a couple of interesting points about the african-american vote. number one, buttigieg cannot be the nominee if he s getting a ....

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Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20190712:11:03:00

Looking pretty good. at the same time, with two candidates in the field, with the top five solidified you re starting to see a real correlation between how people are doing in the polls and how they re doing raising money. if you re sitting at 2% or below you won t go to the big bund her or go online and say, i really need you to help me continue into the third quarter. i mean, do you see candidates that are at 2% or below and stay there surviving into the third quarter? i don t. joe, i don t think if you if you can t get in the third debate i think you re in real trouble. your money is going to dry up really quickly. i think we ll see a mass exodus of this out of this race in the fall. i think a bunch of people are going to look at this and say, look, i just can t raise the money and the interest to stay in this race. some people that, you know, look really good on paper are going to start to flame out because they can t raise the money. this is first primary that money really m ....

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Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20190712:10:04:00

Of the threshold requirements to qualify for the third round of debates in september. so let s stop right there really quick. we can go to people sharing the views, who is best to defeat trump, but let s go back to the overall list of the candidates. and willie, boy, i ll tell you what. as we get to the early states we ll show south carolina in a minute. it becomes so clear that this race there may be 21 people who say they re in the race. but it s down to five if you believe any of these polls and for people that have been saying that the polls make no difference, well, they re wrong because good money doesn t chase bad polls and the top five candidates also happen to be the top five candidates with the most money and biden is doing pretty well. you ll start to wither if ....

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Detailed text transcripts for TV channel - MSNBC - 20190712:11:05:00

Biden is also far behind warren with liberal voters. 29% prefer warren and 35% choose biden. biden garners 35% followed by harris at 15% and joe, african-american voters and voters over 50, that s where biden has strong leaders. i think that s hard to beat compared to the other candidates. certainly that s the case right now. this is a snapshot. for sure. but if you were talking to jim messina or any democratic political expert who s going to be running a campaign and you said, hey, would you rather h e have, you know, older voters or younger voters flock to you, chances are good they would say that if you have that big of a lead among black voters and among older voters, rev, we talked about this last hour, those are the democratic party s most loyal faithful voters. they go out to the polls. ....

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