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Uncertainty surrounding trade, sparking a rush into safety. That leads to a u. S. Yield curve that inverted wednesdayish, as i recall, the First Time Since 2007. The recession is avoidable. Even when you see the yield curve invert. That does not necessarily mean we are going over a cliff into recession. It tends to be about 18 months earlier than you see recession. This is about traditional signals of the yield curve. Talking about the curve inversion. Inversion. 2 10 inversion. The risk of recession goes right up. The castiron signal recession is probably not correct. Markets always shortterm...

Resident negotiators with no deal odds rising. There timing is a hint may be a willingness to talk. Another round of earnings reports sends signals about the Global Economy. Xiao me is facing headwinds on a number of Macro Economic fronts. We are seeing weakening. Rosalind Federal Reserve chairman jay powell speaks at jackson hole. We are at a sort of equilibrium right now and i would be happy to leave rates here. We have to be careful not to ease too much when we do not have significant problems. Lower rates will stimulate our economy somewhat. I dont see this as the end of a rate cutting cyc...

Of recession and uncertainty surrounding trade sparking a , rush into safety. That leads to a u. S. Yield curve that inverted wednesday. As i recall, the First Time Since 2007. The recession is avoidable. Even when you see the yield curve in the invert. That does not necessarily mean we are going over a cliff into recession. It happens to be about 18 months earlier than you see recession. And this is about traditional signals of the yield curve. Talking about the curve in version. Inversion. 2 10 inversion. Recession goes right up. Markets always shortterm have a wall of worry to climb. The ma...

Lets call it 2600 on the dow jones. The hundred on the russell 2000. 1500 on the russell 2000. Caroline volumes down. Lets get a deep dive. Mike i am watching the bloomberg agricultural sub index. A rebound over the summer in commodities has basically completely faded, and that leaves this index new the lowest it has been. As we gauge inflation, districts very well with this tracks very well with bond yields. Corn and soybean. Obviously, the trade tensions with china is hurting crop prices. But there is another thing, the epa decided to give 31 refineries exemption from biofuel acquirements. T...

Weekend for labor day. Road map, it starts with some optimism on the trade war front. Same thing we were saying yesterday. Stocks rising amid cooling rhetoric but here come tariffs. A new set, theyre going to be hitting chinese imports and will kick in this weekend. Keeping an eye corporate earnings, plenty this morning. Campbell soup, ulta, dow, workday. Shares rallying, this on news that 16 models will be exempt from the china import tax. All three major indices in the red for the month. And the nasdaq is the biggest decliner still down more than 2 , this might despite what has been a last r...